D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[Zardnaar]

‘Super Mario Bros’ Super Sunday Sends Second Weekend To $92M+, Still Record For Animated Movie & Illumination – Monday AM Box Office

Box Office: 'Super Mario Bros' Buries 'Renfield', 'Pope's Exorcist', More In second weekend.

deadline.com

That's domestic only.

Current international is $83,000,000. It's 52.8% of total, which would make a the combined, if domestic 100m to right around 225m, the magic production+marketing budget to break even.

That's not the number required to break even.

The studio doesn't get 100% of the box office. It's around 50% (it varies).

No one knows the marketing costs.

I've been using 300 million minimum give or take a few percent. That's assuming they spent 0 on marketing. We know they spent more than that.

Other people use X2.5 and if the box office comes close to that you can't definitively call it a flop or a hit.

So if D&D got 400 million at the box office 200 million roughly is returned to the studio it might be 220 or 180 depends where and when they made it.

Out of that they have to pay the 150 million and marketing costs. 50 million would be a very cheap marketing budget. That's all of the 200 million gone on 400 million box office.

My 300 million is still double the budget everything else people have mentioned might be enough to drag it over the line.

I did reference this in my OP btw about how much it needs to make bank over 450 million They're absolutely in the clear as the box office alone carries the movie.

That article isn't saying it breaks even but it will make 100 million on current projections. I don't dispute the projection number but 200 million total or a bit more is still a flop. The can lose over 100 million on that with a cheap marketing budget.

Even 400 million was marginal using the X2.5 metric and 50% production budget spent on marketing which is typical for movies of this size.

 

[Gradine]

So the answer to the original question is... no?

 

[Azzy]

Mario's not my type of movie I don't plan on seeing it even on streaming but damn that's an impressive Gaul.

Vercingetorix impressive or Asterix impressive?

 

[Jaeger]

Your doctor must love you.

Are you saying that consulting someone with Years of university education + residency + years of experience in whatever specialty is not the exact same thing as looking at Box office numbers that are universally available to everyone, and doing basic math?

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Are you saying that consulting someone with Years of university education + residency + years of experience in whatever specialty is not the exact same thing as looking at Box office numbers that are universally available to everyone, and doing basic math?

I'm saying that "I looked it up on the internet, so therefore I am as qualified as people who do this for a living" is a hell of a way to go through life.

 

[Zardnaar]

I'm saying that "I looked it up on the internet, so therefore I am as qualified as people who do this for a living" is a hell of a way to go through life.

It's publicly available information and how movies box office works is also publicly available.

There's no scientific process or academic qualifications to being a critic, making a movie or analysis or box office performance.

Most of it is basic math. Here's what xyz made what happens with a 40% drop off

This place seems to be only place not calling it a flop lol.

My OP can be applied to any future movie not shifting the goalposts. GotG3 is next big movie so one can apply same metrics there. Or to John Wick (hit), Mario (blockbuster) or Renfield.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

It's publicly available information and how movies box office works is also publicly available.

There's no scientific process or academic qualifications to being a critic, making a movie or analysis or box office performance.

Most of it is basic math. Here's what xyz made what happens with a 40% drop off

How sure are you that this is a flop?

Would you promise to delete your account if they announce a sequel later this month?

Since, you know, this is simply basic math and there are no other factors at play and industry experience means nothing.

This place seems to.be only place not xalling it a flop lol.

Other than the pros, as people keep pointing out to you.

 

[ThrorII]

Here's another example of the ever-shifting revenue target. Now a 150m film needs to earn 320 to break even.

It's pretty well known that the theater takes about 50% of revenue and the studio gets 50%. So, on a $150M budget the movie needs to make $300M or the studio lost money (not counting accounting gimmicks). Add to that the marketing cost (at least $25M, possibly as high as $50M) and you see the movie needs to make $325M - $350M to break even.

I have no idea how profitable streaming contracts or Blu Ray sales are, but I would doubt they're equal to production budget in revenue.

As of today, Box Office Mojo is saying the film has grossed $157M world wide. That could be roughly $79M for the studio, on $175M to $200M in cost.

So, yeah, I really don't think their going to make $100M in streaming and Blu-ray.

 

[Zardnaar]

It's pretty well known that the theater takes about 50% of revenue and the studio gets 50%. So, on a $150M budget the movie needs to make $300M or the studio lost money (not counting accounting gimmicks). Add to that the marketing cost (at least $25M, possibly as high as $50M) and you see the movie needs to make $325M - $350M to break even.

I have no idea how profitable streaming contracts or Blu Ray sales are, but I would doubt they're equal to production budget in revenue.

As of today, Box Office Mojo is saying the film has grossed $157M world wide. That could be roughly $79M for the studio, on $175M to $200M in cost.

So, yeah, I really don't think their going to make $100M in streaming and Blu-ray.

I posted an earlier link streaming movies are usually a few million. VoD is a fraction of of old DVD sales.

The record paid for a streaming movie is 160-200 million by Netflix.

It's not so much can the back end make money or not the backend is gonna have to plug the hole left by the box office.

 

[Zardnaar]

How sure are you that this is a flop?

Would you promise to delete your account if they announce a sequel later this month?

Since, you know, this is simply basic math and there are no other factors at play and industry experience means nothing.

Other than the pros, as people keep pointing out to you.

Would you delete your account if they don't? You're not an Industry insider either AFAIK.

If they announce a sequel or not is irrelevant to the box office take. I've made no predictions on sequels as I have no idea if they'll make one or not. Nor have I predicted it either way.

More money made makes sequel more likely. Hasbro might be happy to treat it as expensive advertising idk.

A sequel being made doesn't change its box office performance.