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This came up some years ago when I had my cancer.

The particular type and size of tumor I had was caught pretty early, and when surgically removed using the methodology involved, was gone for good 90% of the time.

Quite early in my career I ran a lot of RuneQuest, which is a percentile based game. I have a pretty strong intuitive sense of how often you can roll about 90%, and as I put it "No one felt good jumping across the chasm with a 90% skill".

Let's just say when it was time for my CT scan every year for the next five after my surgery, I was never blase about it...

I found my mind going to these sorts of things as well when I was having a series of surgeries for an illness. The Doctor would frame something that was very low percentage as nearly impossible, but I just couldn't shake thinking in terms of a percentile roll
 

I found my mind going to these sorts of things as well when I was having a series of surgeries for an illness. The Doctor would frame something that was very low percentage as nearly impossible, but I just couldn't shake thinking in terms of a percentile roll

Well, sometimes the bad outcomes are well below what any game resolution system normally does--but they still happen often enough that people get them. This is why medicines list side effects that only come up in less than a tenth of a percentage of users--because a lot of people will take that medication, and some of them will have it happen.

(As it was, complications with my surgery were rare, and I still managed to have one rare enough that my surgeon, who's extremely well known in his field, had never seen it happen before and was a little grumpy I hadn't noted I had a particular problem that lead to it since he could have done things to make it less likely).
 

This came up some years ago when I had my cancer.

The particular type and size of tumor I had was caught pretty early, and when surgically removed using the methodology involved, was gone for good 90% of the time.

Quite early in my career I ran a lot of RuneQuest, which is a percentile based game. I have a pretty strong intuitive sense of how often you can roll about 90%, and as I put it "No one felt good jumping across the chasm with a 90% skill".

Let's just say when it was time for my CT scan every year for the next five after my surgery, I was never blase about it...

I think folks who dont work with numbers or game, really dont get it.

"Oh, only a 20% chance of side effects? Great!"

Line up 5 people, 1 of them gets the side effects.

"Oh..."
 



Picard: "Tea. Earl gray, hot. Vegan."

(replicator beeps, tea appears)

Data: "You know Captain, the replicator doesn't add milk by default. You don't have to request it."

Picard: "But then how will everyone know that I'm vegan?"

Scott Pilgrim Vegan GIF
 


I think folks who dont work with numbers or game, really dont get it.

"Oh, only a 20% chance of side effects? Great!"

Line up 5 people, 1 of them gets the side effects.

"Oh..."
Brennan Lee Mulligan's mom probably gave one of the most effective parental drug talks I have heard to date, topping my own father's talk with my siblings and myself. Her lead up to her probability analogy is simple yet devastating. I cannot do the story it justice so here are words from the man himself...

 


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