Bedrockgames
I post in the voice of Christopher Walken
(Not a response to any specific poster)
'The decisions I make take into account all relevant factors within the setting, and they are either the only possible outcome, or by far the most likely outcome, my thumb is not on the scales at all' is simply a delusion.
It is reasonable and possible to make your own decision about what you think should happen based on all these in-setting factors, and to try to make it as verisimilitudinous as possible, but at core this is still a decision you have made about what will happen. No-one is running a world simulation in their head.
'This is simply the logic of the gameworld' is the 'I was only playing my character' of GMing.
I am sorry but this just isn't true in my experience. Especially if you are running the game trying to emphasize giving the players freedom to choose. The idea that we have to be worried about crypto-railroads is just absurd in my opinion. I think these conversations are much better if we take people at their word about this stuff. You aren't in my head, you aren't in @AlViking or @robertsconley's head. You don't know what is happening when we make these kinds of choices.