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D&D (2024) Fireball/Lightning Bolt vs Chromatic Orb?

So, this is a sketchy interpretation of a rules combo, and I could easily see it getting rejected, but it feels like it could maybe work.

When Chromatic Orb bounces to a new target, you make a new attack roll against a target within 30' of the last. Could you apply the Spell Sniper feat's range extension feature to that new range? You have cast a spell, and you have to make an attack roll, and the existing range is more than 10' for each new attack. That seems to meet the requirements for the feature.

I don't know if there is any other spell that would meet those requirements, so this is a rather unique combo, if it was allowed. With +60' from the feat, that would be 150' for the first target, and each new target has to be within 90' of the last. Crazy pinball bouncing.

As such, even if it's iffy, Spell Sniper is an uncommon enough choice that I would likely still allow it, just for the pinball-trick-shot effect. It feels like something someone who took the Spell Sniper feat would want to be able to do, and should be able to do.
 

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From the other thread on the Elemental Adept feat, here's some additional info:

Probabilities:
Level CastDiceMax BounceBounce %Adept Bounce %
13134.38%41.41%
24258.98%67.77%
35379.49%86.82%
46492.31%96.43%
57598.08%99.52%
68699.76%100.00%

And expected number of targets hit, excluding accuracy:
Level CastBase TargetsAdept TargetsGain
11.341.415%
21.942.1410%
32.933.2812%
44.294.669%
55.725.934%
66.957.001%

Anyway, up til spell level 4, it looks like Elemental Adept is worth about +10% damage for Chromatic Orb just by virtue of hitting that many more targets, on average. The actual damage increase from changing 1s to 2s is just +2.8%.


Aside: My calculations for using Empowered Spell on Chromatic Orb are not reliable, since the Sage Advice update which indicated that a single metamagic cannot be used twice on the same spell (even if there are multiple rolls involved), but that Empowered Spell could have its rerolls spread out among all of the spell's rolls.

For example, Scorching Ray could have 1 die rerolled from each beam. So for Chromatic Orb, you could have the handful of rerolls spread out among all the targets hit, just using the necessary dice to get a bounce. But you don't get a full set of rerolls usable on each target.

I'm not sure how I'd try to apply that, but I'll probably use a slight variant on what I had, with an assumption of 1 rerolled die per target to kind of average things out.
 

Here's a table examining the impact of Empowered Spell on Chromatic Orb, after accounting for the Sage Advice answer that said that you basically get a single pool of dice rerolls for the entire spell, and can't double dip just because you get additional attack/damage rolls.

Level CastDiceMax BouncesBounce %Adept %Emp DiceEmp Bounce %Emp Adept %
13134.38%41.41%256.04%62.15%
24258.98%67.77%279.81%84.70%
35379.49%86.82%292.99%95.65%
46492.31%96.43%197.12%98.66%
57598.08%99.52%199.52%99.88%
68699.76%100.00%199.97%100.00%


The Bounce % and Adept (Bounce) % are the odds of getting a bounce based on the initial damage roll, without and with the Elemental Adept feat. The Emp Dice column are the number of dice rerolled per target, if there was no natural bounce. Emp Bounce and Emp Adept are the odds of a bounce after factoring in rerolls.

The choice of the number of dice rerolled with Empowered Spell was based on:
  1. How many dice you can reroll total, based on expected Charisma at various spell levels.
  2. How many bounces are possible for the entire spell. You only get one pool of reroll dice for the entire spell, so spread them out judiciously.
  3. How likely you are to need to reroll on a given target. With more damage dice, the need to reroll goes down dramatically.
  4. How effective a given number of dice rerolls is for any given damage pool.

For example, for the level 1 version with 3 damage dice, rerolling 2 dice is just as effective as rerolling all 3, so there's no need to use all 3 rerolls at first. Plus, if you're allowed to reroll the third die after finding out the results of the first two, that's even better than rolling all three at once.

Overall, 2 dice used for rerolls was the simplest/best option for lower spell levels, while 1 die per bounce was sufficient for higher spell levels.

For spell levels 1-3, Empowered Spell is decently beneficial, giving you around a 15% boost to damage just from better bounces. At spell levels 4 and above, Empowered Spell is much less useful for bounces.

If you're not using Empowered Spell, then Elemental Adept provides a minor boost for lower spell levels. If you are using Empowered Spell, or casting at higher spell levels, Elemental Adept is a little harder to justify just from bounce improvements.
 

Here's a table examining the impact of Empowered Spell on Chromatic Orb, after accounting for the Sage Advice answer that said that you basically get a single pool of dice rerolls for the entire spell, and can't double dip just because you get additional attack/damage rolls.

Level CastDiceMax BouncesBounce %Adept %Emp DiceEmp Bounce %Emp Adept %
13134.38%41.41%256.04%62.15%
24258.98%67.77%279.81%84.70%
35379.49%86.82%292.99%95.65%
46492.31%96.43%197.12%98.66%
57598.08%99.52%199.52%99.88%
68699.76%100.00%199.97%100.00%


The Bounce % and Adept (Bounce) % are the odds of getting a bounce based on the initial damage roll, without and with the Elemental Adept feat. The Emp Dice column are the number of dice rerolled per target, if there was no natural bounce. Emp Bounce and Emp Adept are the odds of a bounce after factoring in rerolls.

The choice of the number of dice rerolled with Empowered Spell was based on:
  1. How many dice you can reroll total, based on expected Charisma at various spell levels.
  2. How many bounces are possible for the entire spell. You only get one pool of reroll dice for the entire spell, so spread them out judiciously.
  3. How likely you are to need to reroll on a given target. With more damage dice, the need to reroll goes down dramatically.
  4. How effective a given number of dice rerolls is for any given damage pool.

For example, for the level 1 version with 3 damage dice, rerolling 2 dice is just as effective as rerolling all 3, so there's no need to use all 3 rerolls at first. Plus, if you're allowed to reroll the third die after finding out the results of the first two, that's even better than rolling all three at once.

Overall, 2 dice used for rerolls was the simplest/best option for lower spell levels, while 1 die per bounce was sufficient for higher spell levels.

For spell levels 1-3, Empowered Spell is decently beneficial, giving you around a 15% boost to damage just from better bounces. At spell levels 4 and above, Empowered Spell is much less useful for bounces.

If you're not using Empowered Spell, then Elemental Adept provides a minor boost for lower spell levels. If you are using Empowered Spell, or casting at higher spell levels, Elemental Adept is a little harder to justify just from bounce improvements.
Going above and beyond.
Here's a table examining the impact of Empowered Spell on Chromatic Orb, after accounting for the Sage Advice answer that said that you basically get a single pool of dice rerolls for the entire spell, and can't double dip just because you get additional attack/damage rolls.

Level CastDiceMax BouncesBounce %Adept %Emp DiceEmp Bounce %Emp Adept %
13134.38%41.41%256.04%62.15%
24258.98%67.77%279.81%84.70%
35379.49%86.82%292.99%95.65%
46492.31%96.43%197.12%98.66%
57598.08%99.52%199.52%99.88%
68699.76%100.00%199.97%100.00%


The Bounce % and Adept (Bounce) % are the odds of getting a bounce based on the initial damage roll, without and with the Elemental Adept feat. The Emp Dice column are the number of dice rerolled per target, if there was no natural bounce. Emp Bounce and Emp Adept are the odds of a bounce after factoring in rerolls.

The choice of the number of dice rerolled with Empowered Spell was based on:
  1. How many dice you can reroll total, based on expected Charisma at various spell levels.
  2. How many bounces are possible for the entire spell. You only get one pool of reroll dice for the entire spell, so spread them out judiciously.
  3. How likely you are to need to reroll on a given target. With more damage dice, the need to reroll goes down dramatically.
  4. How effective a given number of dice rerolls is for any given damage pool.

For example, for the level 1 version with 3 damage dice, rerolling 2 dice is just as effective as rerolling all 3, so there's no need to use all 3 rerolls at first. Plus, if you're allowed to reroll the third die after finding out the results of the first two, that's even better than rolling all three at once.

Overall, 2 dice used for rerolls was the simplest/best option for lower spell levels, while 1 die per bounce was sufficient for higher spell levels.

For spell levels 1-3, Empowered Spell is decently beneficial, giving you around a 15% boost to damage just from better bounces. At spell levels 4 and above, Empowered Spell is much less useful for bounces.

If you're not using Empowered Spell, then Elemental Adept provides a minor boost for lower spell levels. If you are using Empowered Spell, or casting at higher spell levels, Elemental Adept is a little harder to justify just from bounce improvements.
 

Here's a table examining the impact of Empowered Spell on Chromatic Orb, after accounting for the Sage Advice answer that said that you basically get a single pool of dice rerolls for the entire spell, and can't double dip just because you get additional attack/damage rolls.

Level CastDiceMax BouncesBounce %Adept %Emp DiceEmp Bounce %Emp Adept %
13134.38%41.41%256.04%62.15%
24258.98%67.77%279.81%84.70%
35379.49%86.82%292.99%95.65%
46492.31%96.43%197.12%98.66%
57598.08%99.52%199.52%99.88%
68699.76%100.00%199.97%100.00%


The Bounce % and Adept (Bounce) % are the odds of getting a bounce based on the initial damage roll, without and with the Elemental Adept feat. The Emp Dice column are the number of dice rerolled per target, if there was no natural bounce. Emp Bounce and Emp Adept are the odds of a bounce after factoring in rerolls.

The choice of the number of dice rerolled with Empowered Spell was based on:
  1. How many dice you can reroll total, based on expected Charisma at various spell levels.
  2. How many bounces are possible for the entire spell. You only get one pool of reroll dice for the entire spell, so spread them out judiciously.
  3. How likely you are to need to reroll on a given target. With more damage dice, the need to reroll goes down dramatically.
  4. How effective a given number of dice rerolls is for any given damage pool.

For example, for the level 1 version with 3 damage dice, rerolling 2 dice is just as effective as rerolling all 3, so there's no need to use all 3 rerolls at first. Plus, if you're allowed to reroll the third die after finding out the results of the first two, that's even better than rolling all three at once.

Overall, 2 dice used for rerolls was the simplest/best option for lower spell levels, while 1 die per bounce was sufficient for higher spell levels.

For spell levels 1-3, Empowered Spell is decently beneficial, giving you around a 15% boost to damage just from better bounces. At spell levels 4 and above, Empowered Spell is much less useful for bounces.

If you're not using Empowered Spell, then Elemental Adept provides a minor boost for lower spell levels. If you are using Empowered Spell, or casting at higher spell levels, Elemental Adept is a little harder to justify just from bounce improvements.

Going above and beyond cheers.
 

Well the chromatic orb build think I've got a final layout

Traditional blaster with fireballim thinking acid dragon sorcerer.

Chromatic Orb and dragon breath married to scorching ray and Fireball with transmute energy metamagic and twin spell. You'll run out of higher spell slots before you run out of sorcery points.
 

Well the chromatic orb build think I've got a final layout

Traditional blaster with fireballim thinking acid dragon sorcerer.

Chromatic Orb and dragon breath married to scorching ray and Fireball with transmute energy metamagic and twin spell. You'll run out of higher spell slots before you run out of sorcery points.
So what are the details? Here's where I am at:
  • Elven Sorcerer
    • Innate Sorcery (level 1) to give yourself advantage on all attack rolls for spells for 1 min, 2+/day (or +1 DC)
    • Metamagic (level 2) - Empowered for rerolling damage, and Seeking for misses
  • Draconic sub (level 3), maybe lightning, +HP, +AC, Chromatic Orb for free
  • Fey-Touched feat (level 4) for +1 CHA and Hex (I messed this up big time, Hex doesn't apply to all targets)
  • Elven Accuracy (level 4) - effectively makes advantage 3d20
  • Draconic (level 6) gives +CHA damage to lightning spells, resist lightning
  • +2 CHA (level 8), for 20 CHA
So at level 9, let's compare using your single 5th level spell slot against 5 targets.

Pre-cast Innate Sorcery, then Chromatic Orb.
  • +9 to hit and advantage on each roll, with Seeking spell to help with any misses (1 in 8000 chance to critically miss x5)
  • 7d8+CHA lightning per hit = average 36.5 damage
  • max of 5 targets if you can keep getting doubles on 7 dice, which you have a 98% chance of doing (and a reroll for the 2%)
  • 14.2% chance of crits (3d20) for +31.5 average damage per hit, so roughly 41 average with crits
  • x5 = ~205 total average damage before misses
  • Assuming a rough average of 17 AC for CR-appropriate enemies, that means hitting about 95.7% of the time on 3d20 - without Seeking spell! Adding that in bumps it up to ~98.5%. It's hard to calculate average damage since any miss negates the possibility of future rolls, but a very rough average would be 197, and the true average is probably lower.
  • minimum damage is 0!
Or: pre-cast Innate Sorcery (+1 DC), then one Fireball (10d6+5 = 40 avg per target, 200 on 5 targets) or Cone of Cold (8d8+5 = 41 avg, 205 on 5)
  • similar per target damage, but both of which are subject to saves (assuming DC 18 with Innate Sorcery)
  • Assuming a rough average of +3 on Dex saves for CR-appropriate enemies, that means ~25% chance for saving for half, or 87.5% total damage, for 175 on Fireball and ~179 on Cone of Cold.
  • minimum damage is still 1/2 of the maximum!
(Edit: I completely left out Empower for Fireball, which makes a big difference - something like 20% more damage! That means FB is more like 220 on 5 targets, and 192.5 with average saves. This puts both spells back within range of each other.)

Compared together, I feel like Chromatic Orb pulls out ahead, but only because of Elven Accuracy, Seeking spell, and Innate Sorcery. Guaranteed advantage PLUS a third chance to roll if you miss gives a huge hit rate, and a 4th chance after that is insane. (Seeking says you can use it even if you've used a different metamagic, which might mean it can only be used once; I am unsure.) Even if Seeking can only be used once, that's still ~96% chance to hit 5 times, and over 14% chance to crit each time, which save-spells cannot do.

Meanwhile, you're virtually guaranteed to bounce: this is even more likely than hitting, which I didn't expect, and Empowered spell may be wasted as the chance is already so high. The odds that you can get the full damage are really quite good, better than I suspect people realized, and they are much better than the full damage with save spells, even against fewer targets! AND Chromatic Orb is like a free Careful spell.
 
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