Bedrockgames
I post in the voice of Christopher Walken
That is 100% not true.
You know, with a fair degree of certainty, what will happen when the players interact with those caravan raiders. Or, at the very least, you have a couple of pretty good ideas.
Some things you can anticipate. If I have bandits on an encounter table, it is very likely they will try to rob a party that encounters them. Even then, I don't know how it is going to go. I've had players get robbed and then try to join organizations. And I have seen players negotiate. Either way, a bandit encounter from a table, doesn't strike me as particularly planning anything in advance. But when it comes to other groups, I literally have no idea how the players are going to interact with them. I am completely uninterested in predicting what the players are going to do, and what they are going to do.
This idea that the DM is somehow wandering completely blind to possibility and is constantly surprised by the players over and over again, is just another case of trying to mystify the process. DMing is rarely all that surprising. Sure, we can all point to times where it was. But, those are the exceptions. Most of the time? The PC's put paid to the bandits and drive them off. They solve the murder in the inn. They banish the ghost in the outhouse.
I would encourage you to look at how other people GM sometimes. I don't even know if my players are going to be good or bad guys when play start. You saw the example I gave of the player who joined up with bandits. That wasn't a bandit campaign to begin with. They were a bunch of nobodies. And then he went from working with the bandit to turning him in and working with a magistrate. I think you are operating under the assumption of a group of players who are being pretty typical D&D party characters. My wuxia sandboxes aren't even typical wuxia. Typical wuxia is martial heroes using their powers to defend the weak from the strong. For me it is more about the world of eccentric characters, and you never really know how that is going to go. It is a campaign of shifting alliances and characters who often go against the grain
"Oh, I have no idea what the players will do" is put to rest by the absolute MOUNTAIN of modules out there that accurately predict what the players will do over and over and over again. Is it 100% accurate? Nope. But, it's not exactly a high risk bet to guess what your players will do.
But that is the challenge of modules. Because they are writing for anyone, not just their campaign.And there is nothing wrong with modules. I've even had some that were clear scenarios. But I have had others that are just places and people (and things in between). But there are plenty of sandbox adventures out there that aren't written predicting what players will do. Possibly you don't find these fun, and that is fair. I don't really understand your hostility though to the concept itself