D&D General Did 5e 2024 Not meet the economic goals set, and if not, why not?

[GreyLord]

Last year I decreased my investments in Hasbro significantly. I can't say the other investments I made ensuing that were wonderful as the past few months have been a rather rollercoaster ride on the markets, but I can say I think they are paying off more substantially in the tech markets than I would have done with the same investments in Hasbro. I tried wondering what aspects may have caused this. In that light, looking at things to see why and what was going on I stumbled on a rather interesting video (note, I don't know much about the backgrounds of the video maker, it is rather long but seems informative. I DO NOT agree with all the opinions that they state, but it made me asks questions in the same arena).

I had rather high expectations of the D&D 2024's release, and thus far, it does not look like it may even make those expectations (and I'm not going to reveal what those expectations are specifically, but you may get a slight idea if you've read other posts from me over the past year on the matter). So, now I'm left wondering what happened here. I know many here may not agree with my assumptions or thoughts. For those that do (if there are any out there) I am wondering what do you think occurred.
The video that sparked this was


This video is long, dry, and probably not very engaging. A short summary of what they thought went wrong (copied from their own summary)

9:47 Quiet sea change away from D&D
15:20 The OGL Plan failed
24:05 Staffing/morale crisis
28:10 5.5e made for economic, not game considerations
33:02 Unserious design process without a playtest
41:23 Mid-playtest retreat

I looked to try to see if this content creator was conservative or a little more to the right than I would normally ascribe to, but couldn't find much on that. They did make one point I may think contributed greatly, but isn't highlighted in their summary.

The reasons to change editions or versions that cause people to go with the change are

1. Rules different enough to be incompatible with the prior edition

2. Rules that improve the rules enough to cause people to want to switch.

To me, it is obvious that #1 was not a purpose of the edition and obviously not a driver of sales. #2 on the otherhand...I think may be perception vs. reality. Everything I've read (and I may be reading sources biased towards my viewpoints, so that is a problem on my part) is that the new rules improve things in every way. However, the perception may be that there were not that many major changes, or that the changes make things more complicated rather than help improve things.

I also think perceptions on the edition, vs. what the reality is, has greatly affected why people have or have not chosen to purchase the 2024 release. In fact, I'm not sure it's about the rules at all, but more about the messaging. In watching the video, a lot of what the creator points out, also seems more about the message the creator has heard or seen rather than what is actually contained in the rules.

I'm not posting a poll, as I'm not looking for a yes or not answer type thing, but more of actual answers on what people think is happening with the 2024 release economically and sales wise currently, and WHY they think these things are happening.


PS: As a short novelty, Level Up has a small mention near the end of the video.

PPS: Another thought I had. They didn't have a compatible Starter Set from the beginning. It could be that Starter Sets or Beginner Sets are a critical item in increasing interest in the core rules of a game, letting players have a taste without having to go in for the full cost from the start.

 

[LuisCarlos17f]

I wonder if we should await the translations for no-English-speaker markets. If I wanted to buy the Spanish-translated 2024 edition I would await until the release of the monster manual.

 

[danir]

From my local experience (local forum member and regional con organizer)

• People have mostly forgotten about the OGL issue. There is still a flavor of the year game, currently daggerheart, but didn’t see sustained presence for any 5e look alike.
• Most looking for games posts are for D&D
• Most of those are using the 2024 rule set as a basis
• People have generally been happy with the changes.

Cannot attest to the financial success, but at my local scene it is anecdotally highly successful.

 

[mamba]

I looked to try to see if this content creator was conservative or a little more to the right than I would normally ascribe to, but couldn't find much on that.

he is definitely not on the conservative end, he probably would be considered progressive by many (in some videos he says a bit about himself / his job)

 

[UngainlyTitan]

I think the short answer is that people outside WoTC do not really know. From what I remember it is distributed on different channels that do not show up on Bookscan, Amazon has reclassified it so we have no comparable before or after data.
As far as I can see people are mostly projecting their own biases on to the general internet buzz.
As for the video reference, I do not watch his videos, from the few I have watched he a bit of an algorithm chaser, but I could be wrong, but I watch too much Youtube already and am actively trying to avoid people that make multiple videos analysing the latest rumour.

 

[Daddio67]

I think there are a few factors in play.

First, 5e 2014 benefitted from three external boosts: Stranger Things, Critical Role, and Covid. Covid is done and CR is moving on, and this is the last season of Stranger Things.

Second, many traditional markets dominated are becoming more fractured. A lot of folks still read the WSJ or NYT, but their dominance is lessened. Products like Shadowdark and Cosmere and Daggerheart are eating into 5e 2024 appeal.

Third, a lot of unforced errors by WOTC. OGL and Pinkerton scandals. Lackluster products. “Under-monetization”. VTT and AI statements. Layoffs that turner off long time consumers. VTT failure. Loss of recognized “stars” in Perkins and Crawford. Larian moving on from D&D.

All combined I think 2024 will limp along rather than enjoy the heights that 2014 achieved.

 

[AlViking]

I think the short answer is that people outside WoTC do not really know. From what I remember it is distributed on different channels that do not show up on Bookscan, Amazon has reclassified it so we have no comparable before or after data.
As far as I can see people are mostly projecting their own biases on to the general internet buzz.
As for the video reference, I do not watch his videos, from the few I have watched he a bit of an algorithm chaser, but I could be wrong, but I watch too much Youtube already and am actively trying to avoid people that make multiple videos analysing the latest rumour.

I don't believe any of these videos one way or another. We don't have good numbers and sales are shifting to DndBeyond. Unless it comes from an official WOTC source it's guesswork.

 

[tetrasodium]

From my local experience (local forum member and regional con organizer)

• People have mostly forgotten about the OGL issue. There is still a flavor of the year game, currently daggerheart, but didn’t see sustained presence for any 5e look alike.
• Most looking for games posts are for D&D
• Most of those are using the 2024 rule set as a basis
• People have generally been happy with the changes.

Cannot attest to the financial success, but at my local scene it is anecdotally highly successful.

The ogl fiasco badly derailed the playtesting and did a lot of damage to the idea of meaningful change as opposed to "[many people] recognize there is serious problems with this that and the other section of the rules but some people think that the problem is fun so we decided to split the baby and preserve the problems while doing something on the most technical and insignificant level".

The civilization guy (cud Meyer?) did a ted talk type of thing about different types of player personalities that was really good. While I'm not going to search for it there were two very relevant groups that were players who just want to win and players who care about an actual good game that is enjoyable even if they aren't winning. When the ogl happened wotc pretty much ignored everything but the play to dominate in victory any time there was disagreement (ie resting revision meaningful light/darkness mechanics the much needed revamp of short rest ADEU classes in an attrition based adventuring day design game etc)

 

[Argyle King]

I think 2024 has struggled to establish a coherent identity.

Purely anecdotal evidence on my part, but some things I've heard from discussions with various game groups:


•2024 simultaneously changed too little and too much: where change was wanted (i.e. feats) it wasn't enough because the underlying core structure of the game still gives relatively few decision points; where change wasn't wanted (i.e. Goliath seeming to merge with Genasi) it was a somewhat radical departure.

•Changes made to "fix" a problem that didn't. For example, shifting ability score increases from race/species to background. Was there an actual overall net improvement to the game from this?

•Even when change was made in a way that could be seen as mostly good, it was done in a way that seemed to go against its own stated goals. For example, better inclusivity is great; at the same time, effectively erasing the "half" races downplays the lived experiences of players who may identify as mixed.

•Ongoing negative sentiment toward WotC. While people liked the most recent movie, loved BG3, and watch Stranger Things; the company behind the game isn't viewed in a very positive light.

•Lackluster anniversary celebration. Whatever people expected an anniversary edition of D&D to look like, 5.24 wasn't it. Excitement turned to disappointment; that disappointment fed into resentment that individuals may have already had due to previously perceived slights.

•Too much focus on apologizing for the past rather than celebrating the good and building forward to better.

Failing to establish coherent direction and purpose during a timeframe that should have been a celebration embracing the cultural tapestry that D&D has woven as a brand identity over the years pushed people who wanted to spend money on D&D toward other products like Shadowdark and Daggerheart.

My guess would be that brand identity still carried D&D 2024 to a place that is seen as a financial success, in the same way that even the worst Star Wars movie made money.

 

[Morrus]

I haven’t watched the video but the short answer is: nobody knows, including the video maker. We can speculate all day long but without any data all we’re doing is making stuff up.