D&D and the rising pandemic

Celebrim · Mar 10, 2020

Umbran said:
No. It depends on a large percentage of the population not going to the hospital and getting tested. For most folks, the symptoms are very similar to a cold or the flu. Most people don't go to the doctor for such things, much less get tested for covid-19.

Yeah, except for we have the ongoing case of South Korea, where that isn't true because South Korea is testing everyone with potential exposure (a strategy that is proving very effective). So it really depends on what you think the South Korea rate is going to trend towards. I'm hoping for a final number under 2% as well, but don't want to bet on it.

In any event, I'm going to bow out of this discussion of the actual R0 and mortality rate. They are high. They are difficult to estimate in an ongoing outbreak. And different data sets will give you different results. But this is such a tired topic for me at this point, that I don't want to rehash it, and in any event EnWorld isn't the forum for doing that.

Celebrim · Mar 10, 2020

dnd4vr said:
You are more likely to be struck by lightning than die of the virus. Or die in a car accident, die by gunshot, or any number of things. I'm sorry because I know that sounds sensational, but it is more about keeping things in perspective.

There is a major problem in your numbers, but I'm just going to drop it. I've been having this argument almost nonstop for eight weeks now, and it's tiring.

jgsugden · Mar 10, 2020

Arguing over numbers, quite frankly, is missing the point.

If we can save one life by exercising reasonable caution, isn't it worth doing so?

If everyone takes reasonable precautions, this thing dies quickly. If not, it spreads as widely as a flu strain (or more widely) and appears to be more deadly and virulent. Heck, taking reasonable precautions against this bug will also put a real kink in th flu and tht is a very noble goal.

Most of us have probably spread the flu because we were too lazy to take precautions. That flu likely then spread to someone with a fragile health situation that died from complications arising from the disease. You're not responsible by yourself - many people make the same mistake to pass it along the chain, but hundreds of thousands of peple have died from the flu in the past few decades alone in the US and most of us have given it to someone else.

seebs · Mar 10, 2020

Back when the "Spanish" flu (believed to have originated in Kansas, but Spain was neutral in the war going on at the time and thus not having its news censored) was happening, Philadelphia said "haha losers we're not panicing over this", and St. Louis shut down and cancelled public gatherings and such.

Net result: Mortality of ~350/100k in St. Louis, ~750/100k in Philadelphia. (And sure, those are smallish compared to all the other risks put together, or the really large other risks, but they're still a very large marginal change.)

Umbran · Mar 10, 2020

jgsugden said:
Arguing over numbers, quite frankly, is missing the point.

Not if it gets people to take the proper precautions.

If we can save one life by exercising reasonable caution, isn't it worth doing so?

Yes, but what a "reasonable caution" will be depends upon the level of the threat. Reasonable precautions against the flu is... washing your hands, and not going to your friends house if you or someone you live with is currently sick. Reasonable precautions against this are still up in the air. Italy thought it was taking reasonable precautions... but seems to have been short of the mark.

Lem23 · Mar 10, 2020

Don't be an idiot. Stay safe, and don't listen to people claiming that it's all just hype and "sensationalist media lies."

Man in the Funny Hat · Mar 10, 2020

GreyLord said:
With the rising numbers of ill, at what point do you consider cancelling your weekly (or bi-weekly) group?

When one of the actual players or someone they have close contact with IS ILL, or the local health department says, "We have a local outbreak. Everybody stay home and don't contact others or risk contagion."

How do you balance between running your game and the fears currently out there of a rising pandemic?

By ignoring the outrageously overblown fears generated by the media and keeping the realistic degree of threat in a more appropriate perspective.

I don't want to shut down gaming prematurely, but at the same time I don't want our group to become the plague bearers of the area (I think our area is currently very low risk, but I'm not sure of the future).

If you or a player shows up sniffling to a game you shouldn't be playing anyway because it's very inconsiderate to spread NORMAL flu that way.

If you're going to stop getting together for gaming then you'd best not be going out to the movies, going to work, to school, to the grocery store, or otherwise interacting face-to-face with the general public because they're surely a greater risk for infecting you.

Sacrosanct · Mar 10, 2020

The awful thing about COVID-19 over the flu is twofold:

it’s exceptionally lethal to the elderly
It can be spread for several days before the person shows symptoms.

therefore, the focus should be on limiting exposure to the elderly and sick. Mark Parkinson, CEO of American Healthcare Association, has even recommended people not visit those in assisted living and retirement homes because you could be carrying it and not know.

A lot of people say how we’ll be fine statistically. And that’s probably true. But even if I am fine, my 97 year old grandma won’t be if I spread it to her.

Olrox17 · Mar 10, 2020

To all those that think Coronavirus is just a big conspiracy: I hope you won’t have to change your opinion the hard way. I know more than a few people here in Italy that had to.

DND_Reborn · Mar 10, 2020

Lem23 said:
Don't be an idiot. Stay safe, and don't listen to people claiming that it's all just hype and "sensationalist media lies."

First, if you are going to attack someone, do it, and don't hide behind ambiguity.

Second, no one here ever said it is all just hype and lies. If you read my posts, I frequently acknowledge that it is out there, it is serious and horrible for those impacted, etc., and people in affected regions should take whatever precautions they deem necessary (stay home from work, school, get supplies to stay home for a week or two, etc.).

My point was a lot of media and internet responses shout "fire" when there is just a spark, speaking metaphorically world-wide. Your response is a perfect example, with your every increasing image sizes. You are waving your hands and shouting when you do such things.

Of course, sparks can be dangerous. It is best to act to contain and put out the spark. Do that. That is important. I've never argued otherwise. But do it with sense and understanding. Not everyone, everywhere, needs to put their lives on hold for two weeks. In the mean time, certainly wash your hands, practice good hygiene, and such as you normally should.

D&D and the rising pandemic

Celebrim

Legend

Celebrim

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jgsugden

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seebs

Adventurer

Umbran

Mod Squad

Lem23

Adventurer

Man in the Funny Hat

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Sacrosanct

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Olrox17

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DND_Reborn

The High Aldwin

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