D&D and the rising pandemic

[Sadras]

Where are you getting your figures? Asnof now, 116000 confirmed cases, 4000 deaths. That's 3.4%. I've never seen your higher figure. The math doesn't work out like that.

I'm not going to argue the numbers just provide you with a useful link where I suspect @Celebrim got his figures from. This is the home page.

I will say this, the 116,000 confirmed cases includes still active cases.
My logic tells me that one should take the deaths over the total closed cases to get a more accurate percentage - because active cases can still lead to more deaths. Ofcourse there is the estimated part of the formula which messes it all up a bit.

 

[Prakriti]

I almost didn't want to start my new campaign, because I'm pretty sure the pandemic will disrupt it at some point. But I decided to go ahead with it anyway, because it's better to have fun while we can than to live in fear.

Oh, and I've been watching this thing develop for weeks. It was driving me crazy how no one was taking it seriously in February, even though it was only a matter of time before the disease spread across the globe. Now that other people are starting to freak out, my anxiety level has actually gone DOWN, because at least now people are starting to react appropriately and take necessary precautions.

 

[Sadras]

Oh, and I've been watching this thing develop for weeks. It was driving me crazy how no one was taking it seriously in February, even though it was only a matter of time before the disease spread across the globe. Now that other people are starting to freak out, my anxiety level has actually gone DOWN, because at least now people are starting to react appropriately and take necessary precautions.

It is like you read my mind.

 

[DND_Reborn]

But don't worry, you are more likely to be hit by lightning (today). Don't worry about tomorrow.

I won't.

You're cherry-picking statistics from a country that has instituted draconian quarantines with an outbreak that is, even now, still in its early stages.

No, I picked the largest sample size that has been experiencing it the longest. It is the best number to go on for now. But, you can use any country or the whole world if you like, it doesn't change anything.

 

[lowkey13]

*Deleted by user*

 

[THEMNGMNT]

I'd like to repeat what others have said. Don't listen to randos on the internet or talk radio. Take your guidance from medical professionals. Got questions? Ask your doctor.

There are communities in the U.S. that are already experiencing significant disruptions. The virus is here, it's real, and it's not concocted by the media. Don't treat it as a joke. Err on the side of caution.

Now is the time to prepare in case your community is impacted and you and your family have to stay home.

Be well, friends.

 

[Sacrosanct]

People used to give me a hard time for being a prepper (not like what you see on doomsday preppers; those are crazies used for ratings). But so far over the past few weeks I’ve been able to relax at home with plenty of supplies and not have to expose myself to the panicked crowds at COSTCO buying up all the toilet paper.

And as an introvert who hates crowds, that alone makes it all worth it

 

[Umbran]

My logic tells me that one should take the deaths over the total closed cases to get a more accurate percentage

There's effectively two different numbers:

1) If you end up going to the hospital and getting tested or otherwise officially diagnosed. The numbers at that handy link Sadras mentioned seem to be of this sort - it refers to "confirmed cases" ad such.

2) If you catch the disease at all, what is the chance of mortality. This includes an estimate for the people who do not get officially diagnosed. This is what an epedemiologist calls the "mortality rate", generally. For a disease like the flu, there are tons of people who never get diagnosed officially.

 

[Umbran]

How about everybody who isn't an epidemiologist quits batting numbers around that the actual epidemiologists haven't yet nailed down?

Armchair epidemiology. "My logic says..."

Yeah, folks, there are people who do this professionally. They know how diseases spread. You really think your personal assessment is better?

There have, as yet, been no cases of community transmission of covid-19 in Boston proper - all our cases come from known individual sources (basically, all from one Biogen conference).

But... Harvard University's doctors and lawyers seem to agree - students are being sent home. Everyone's off campus by Sunday the 15th, and wil stay away until the end of the semester. All classes are to continue online instead.

 

[lowkey13]

*Deleted by user*