D&D and the rising pandemic

[Umbran]

Talking of taking precautions and not being an idiot:

{keynote speaker and balloons...}

WTF?

headdesk

 

[Panda-s1]

honestly I feel like we should appreciate we have things like skype and/or discord and roll 20 to help us do things like play rpgs online. we wouldn't be having this discussion 20 years ago, and even 10 years ago it would be tenuous at best. 30 years ago we'd just have to cancel altogether (though it wouldn't surprise me if some crafty gamers did this sort of thing over the phone, as expensive as that sounds).

currently I'm working from home, the powers that be finally decided this was the best idea. idk if we'd postpone the game I'm currently in, but we don't meet in public so the concern isn't as great.

Most likely it is the flu (and we are all rather healthy...I think...so even if we get it I think we are okay) rather than the COVID 19 because, as I said, no confirmed cases in the area, but it sparked an interesting discussion on the Corona virus and what should be done.

flu is still bad. we should all be responsible (unike me) and get the flu shot, that's something we can control and fight, unlike covid.

People used to give me a hard time for being a prepper (not like what you see on doomsday preppers; those are crazies used for ratings). But so far over the past few weeks I’ve been able to relax at home with plenty of supplies and not have to expose myself to the panicked crowds at COSTCO buying up all the toilet paper.

And as an introvert who hates crowds, that alone makes it all worth it

toilet paper I get, but why tf are people buying bottled water? we still have running water, guys.

 

[Beleriphon]

What exactly do you think is a rational reaction to a disease with apparently an R0 of higher than 2.5 and a mortality rate of higher than 3.4%?

SARS had a mortality rate of over 10%. MERS had a mortality rate of 34%.

As of right now we don't know what the actual mortality rate in the general populace is, in part because we can't test enough people. Even in the US having at last check something like 200,000 test kits being made available doesn't help, since two kits are used per person to confirm, and only a limited number can be processed per day. So, we are unlikely to have anything approaching an accurate value.

Here's a good source on what to look for in media reports to be able to determine if it is accurately reporting information, or what kind of information you want to look out for:

I Lived Through SARS and Reported on Ebola. These Are the Questions We Should Be Asking About Coronavirus.

For concerned civilians and journalists covering the coronavirus, the figures and projections can be overwhelming, frightening or confusing. Here’s what reporter Caroline Chen is focusing on to keep things as accurate and clear as possible.

www.propublica.org

As of right now 3.4% mortality rate is among confirmed cases, the actual value could be much, much lower since many more people could be asymptomatic (which is a real problem), or simply not have particularly serious symptoms and never get tested.

As for the R0 that is a moving target, just like the mortality rate. It is probably more accurate than the mortality rate at the moment, but again it is in flux and will more than likely change.

Just a data point for consideration: the US mortality rate for influenza and pneumonia last year was 6.9%.

South Korea for example is reporting that the mortality rate is around 0.6%, that is based on 1100 per million residents. Compare that value to the US which is reporting 3.4% mortality, but has administered 7 tests per million residents.

I'm not denying that there is a certain amount of hype, but those two numbers I think pretty much tell the whole story. You either believe those numbers are real, or you don't - in which case your distrust extends to far more than just 'the media'.

So, as for myself, I don't think we'll meet for two reasons.

First, and most importantly, for the sake of people outside our group who would be at high risk in the event of a general epidemic. For the sake of the elderly, it just doesn't make any sense to put our enjoyment ahead of their lives.

I actually don't think it is distrust, at least not for me. I trust the media to be report what they have accurately, but the problem is they often don't ask the right questions to get reliable and reasonable information. And that comes down to not knowing what to ask, or why to ask certain questions.

And secondly, several members of my group have the single most important co-morbidity factor - high blood pressure. So, even though mortality in our age group is quite low, with the high blood pressure present in it's in the 1% range. And that's to not even get into the relatively high risk that they'd need to be on oxygen for 2 to 4 weeks.

That seems like a pretty good reason right there. If you're at risk, don't put yourself at risk. If you aren't at risk, and aren't like to spread the virus to others at risk, it probably isn't worth disrupting your life over.

 

[Ralif Redhammer]

Yeah, without those options, we'd be stuck in case of a lockdown. I suppose I could field the question of playing to Mrs. Redhammer, but she'd probably give me the same look as the last time I broached the subject.

In the 80s, I actually did run a number of AD&D sessions with friends via the phone. Only local calls, mind you.

I suspect that at work we're going to be told that working from home is mandatory soon enough. I'm lucky I have that option. The aforementioned missus works at a salon, and will likely be out-of-pocket come a lockdown/quarantine situation.

honestly I feel like we should appreciate we have things like skype and/or discord and roll 20 to help us do things like play rpgs online. we wouldn't be having this discussion 20 years ago, and even 10 years ago it would be tenuous at best. 30 years ago we'd just have to cancel altogether (though it wouldn't surprise me if some crafty gamers did this sort of thing over the phone, as expensive as that sounds).

currently I'm working from home, the powers that be finally decided this was the best idea. idk if we'd postpone the game I'm currently in, but we don't meet in public so the concern isn't as great.

 

[Beleriphon]

Oh, I just found this. Seems like a pretty solid list of stuff about COVID-19 and coronavirus in general.

Coronavirus: Essential Reads

Stay informed with these must-reads on the global outbreak.

blog.getpocket.com

 

[Panda-s1]

In the 80s, I actually did run a number of AD&D sessions with friends via the phone. Only local calls, mind you.

huh, was this with speaker phone? I can't imagine it wouldn't be awkward otherwise lol.

I suspect that at work we're going to be told that working from home is mandatory soon enough. I'm lucky I have that option. The aforementioned missus works at a salon, and will likely be out-of-pocket come a lockdown/quarantine situation.

yeah, my job can easily be done at home, but I'm very worried for the people who have jobs that have to be done on location. hopefully this doesn't last long :/

 

[robus]

The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace. The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

That tweet thread was sobering stuff!

 

[robus]

My logic tells me that one should take the deaths over the total closed cases to get a more accurate percentage - because active cases can still lead to more deaths. Ofcourse there is the estimated part of the formula which messes it all up a bit.

But actually that's not accurate because people are also dying of secondary complications (the pneumonia the Italian doctor mentions). And the reason they're dying of that is because there aren't the medical resources to handle the number of cases and this is why it is a serious problem. If we can keep a lid on the contagion then the medical resources should be able to cope (and, in the process, save many lives). If we don't, medical resources will be overwhelmed and more people will die who would otherwise have survived.

We need to stop spreading the virus. Not because we ourselves might suffer, but because we will overwhelm our hospitals as is happening in northern Italy.

 

[Umbran]

Just a data point for consideration: the US mortality rate for influenza and pneumonia last year was 6.9%.

Cite, please?

"CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. "

Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC

CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.

www.cdc.gov

That puts the mortality rate for influenza down around 0.1%. "Pneumonia and influenza" isn't a great comparison, because pneumonia has many, many different sources.

 

[Beleriphon]

Cite, please?

"CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. "

Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC

CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.

www.cdc.gov

That puts the mortality rate for influenza down around 0.1%. "Pneumonia and influenza" isn't a great comparison, because pneumonia has many, many different sources.

Misread the statistics. It is for the current year up to the week ending Feb 22, 2020. That's still pretty high for combined flue and pneumonia. As for where I dug it up, CDC website below.

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report

Learn more about the weekly influenza surveillance report (FluView) prepared by the Influenza Division.

www.cdc.gov