D&D and the rising pandemic

Theo R Cwithin said:

Yep. And I think they're all planning to do it by different priorities and schedules? So hopefully, at a minimum, those openings will provide some helpful data for other states, irrespective of individual opinions on the topic.
Like I said: Those openings are the test. Ready or not, here they come.

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With the delay between how long it will take cases to ramp up and then into deaths - i'm not so sure the data will get there fast enough.

FrogReaver said:

With the delay between how long it will take cases to ramp up and then into deaths - i'm not so sure the data will get there fast enough.

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That is a disturbingly good point.

Theo R Cwithin said:

Thanks, that's a very thorough overview of the economic concerns. And believe me, as someone who was caught unawares in between jobs and homes by this thing, I'm more than a little stressed about how business fares in coming months, if only for personal reasons.

My question, though, has to do with the medical issue, not economic or policy ones. Specifically, how do these reports that Covid are less lethal than originally thought square with how the pandemic has unfolded in places like NYC or Italy, where the disease slammed the systems in place, quite unlike seasonal flu?

If those high infection rates are correct, those numbers are suggesting that it's not especially dangerous, yet it also causes big spikes of critical cases? I just don't understand how that can be, and I'm curious to hear an explanation for it.

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You're welcome, and thank you for the compliment.

The gaps in our knowledge include things that ought to be Top Priority to find out. One such is the answer to the question "How many people have / had COVID?". So far our testing has been limited and centered around people who come to the hospital. Naturally this skews the data towards high death rate from infection. Two studies reporting last weekend went out into cities - one in CA, one in MA - and asked passersby at random to give a blood sample for a survey. The CA survey found 85 times as many people exposed as they expected. The MA group found almost 1/3 of the samples had exposure. The true number of exposed people in the US is likely in the tens of millions (my extrapolation), but the vast majority are no-symptom or "nasty flu" level. But even if only .001 (one-tenth of one percent) of the total need intensive care, that is 10,000 people in peril of death.

It would be interesting - and likely scary - to build a chart comparing total US cases, deaths, and mortality chance for several diseases, as of this year or last year (whichever has compiled data): common cold, flu, COVID-19, other coronaviruses (if known), West Nile virus, the Spanish Flu in 1919, and the cholera wave of the 1830s. Also Ebola in W Africa 2016 and the Black Death sweeping Europe 1347-1350.

Theo R Cwithin said:

I haven't followed it too closely, but my understanding is that at least the mortuaries in NYC were overflowing. That suggests to me that something deadly is afoot.
As for Italy, every report I heard out of there was very grim.

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Italy had daily military convoys helping out with carrying all the coffins. Yes, it was indeed very grim.

Imaculata said:

Italy had daily military convoys helping out with carrying all the coffins. Yes, it was indeed very grim.

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Italy and Spain had staff bail in the old folks homes.

Per capita NY state is worse. Sweden's also not doing that well. Turns out business as usual was a bad idea.

Down side of lockdowns though.


Even if you flatten the curve someone else dies. 30 million starve to death.

Bad, worse, awful pick one.

3 weeks ago. Sweden lost that bet.

1/4/2020

Zardnaar said:

3 weeks ago. Sweden lost that bet.

1/4/2020

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

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Sweden is taking a risky path. Supposedly, they’re trying to get enough Swedes exposed to develop herd immunity. Problem is, that’s a tactic that works best with vaccines. That’s because the more contagious the disease, the higher the percentage of your populace needs to be exposed or immunized to achieve the goal of herd immunity. That’s why the USA has seen outbreaks of measles since our MMR vax rate dipped into the low 80s.

Right now, Covid-19’s R0 is estimated at 3.3 or so, slightly lower than Mumps. (See below.) If you need 60-70% (guesstimating) of your population to be exposed to get herd immunity to Covid-19, and your country of 4M+ people is currently registering a death rate of 10%, that translates into a few hundred thousand dead.

If I’m not mistaken, that’s a formula England considered and quickly rethought.

Dannyalcatraz said:

Sweden is taking a risky path. Supposedly, they’re trying to get enough Swedes exposed to develop herd immunity. Problem is, that’s a tactic that works best with vaccines. That’s because the more contagious the disease, the higher the percentage of your populace needs to be exposed or immunized to achieve the goal of herd immunity. That’s why the USA has seen outbreaks of measles since our MMR vax rate dipped into the low 80s.

Right now, Covid-19’s R0 is estimated at 3.3 or so, slightly lower than Mumps. (See below.) If you need 60-70% (guesstimating) of your population to be exposed to get herd immunity to Covid-19, and your country of 4M+ people is currently registering a death rate of 10%, that translates into a few hundred thousand dead.

If I’m not mistaken, that’s a formula England considered and quickly rethought.



View attachment 121266

What is Herd Immunity | NOVA |PBS

When enough people are immune to a disease, the "herd" protects those who cannot safely receive a vaccine.

www.pbs.org

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Yeah there deaths per million isn't good.

They won't hit herd immunity but if they dodge the second wave their approach might look better.

At one point per capita they were almost twice as bad as USA.

More info for NZ
5200 tests daily, roughly 1000/million
1451 cases, 401 active
6 new cases
14 deaths approx 3/million.

Deliveries to KFC/McDonalds is for Friday drive through only. KFC won't be doing burgers.

Zardnaar said:

KFC won't be doing burgers.

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So, no change then?

Azzy said:

So, no change then?

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They do burgers here.

I'm guessing they're doing limited options for drive through.


Tuesday. Then in two weeks hopefully something resembling business as usual minus tourists except for the ones stuck here.