D&D and the rising pandemic

[Theo R Cwithin]

Was New York medical system actually overwhelmed? All the evidence I'm seeing is that it didn't actually get to that point (thanks to social distancing of course)

I haven't followed it too closely, but my understanding is that at least the mortuaries in NYC were overflowing. That suggests to me that something deadly is afoot.
As for Italy, every report I heard out of there was very grim.

 

[FrogReaver]

Thanks, that's a very thorough overview of the economic concerns. And believe me, as someone who was caught unawares in between jobs and homes by this thing, I'm more than a little stressed about how business fares in coming months, if only for personal reasons.

My question, though, has to do with the medical issue, not economic or policy ones. Specifically, how do these reports that Covid are less lethal than originally thought square with how the pandemic has unfolded in places like NYC or Italy, where the disease slammed the systems in place, quite unlike seasonal flu?

If those high infection rates are correct, those numbers are suggesting that it's not especially dangerous, yet it also causes big spikes of critical cases? I just don't understand how that can be, and I'm curious to hear an explanation for it.

To me it would make sense that the only way New York could keep it's numbers of deaths and cases as high for as long as they have is if alot of people are infected and don't know it and they infect other people that don't know it, etc. The good news is that they are a little below R0. The bad news is that their number of new cases are declining much less rapidly than anticipated. I see no reason why if New York City opened up tomorrow that they wouldn't pick up where they left off. Alot of that may be population density though. Which may be why we aren't seeing it spread like expected in small town America.

Just my guesses.

 

[FrogReaver]

Looks like the U.S. is on pace for the deadliest day of coronavirus so far.

 

[Zardnaar]

The problem with this that in general people do not trust the same sources of information.

EDIT: Especially when those same sources ensures all dissenting views are "stamped out". Authoritarian nations get a bad rap for this kind of behaviour.

How about facts then?

NZ has one of the strictist lockdowns. Our curve was the same as everyone else's but then it flattened.

Stuff

i.stuff.co.nz

We have 1 death today with 6 new cases.

Death rate is less than 3 per million.

8 of those deaths are from the same rest home. All of them are over 70.

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

I see no reason why if New York City opened up tomorrow that they wouldn't pick up where they left off. Alot of that may be population density though. Which may be why we aren't seeing it spread like expected in small town America.

Yup yup... Population density and contagious disease are a bad, bad combination. I think commuting has a lot to do with it, too. So even rural areas where few people live are still at risk if there's a lot of traffic through, eg. for the agriculture or energy industries.

I'm living in small town Texas myself, and at least in my little neck of the woods, most everyone seems to be taking social distancing pretty seriously, even if there's a little grumbling. I honestly think that has a fair bit to do with the limited spread. But starting yesterday, the governor has decided to let things open up slowly over the next few weeks, so we'll see how it goes. That will be the test, I guess.

 

[Zardnaar]

You probably want stuff in green box.

How biased is your news source? You probably won’t agree with this chart

Are we even aware of our biases anymore? If you look at this chart and are convinced your “extreme” source belongs in the middle, you just might be part of...

www.google.com

International stuff I use BBC, Reuters.

Red box.

Nonsense damaging to public discource.
Propaganda/misleading.

Contains inaccurate/fabricated information.

So yeah Palmer Report might not be the most reliable source.

 

[FrogReaver]

You probably want stuff in green box.

How biased is your news source? You probably won’t agree with this chart

Are we even aware of our biases anymore? If you look at this chart and are convinced your “extreme” source belongs in the middle, you just might be part of...

www.google.com

International stuff I use BBC, Reuters.

Red box.

Nonsense damaging to public discource.
Propaganda/misleading.

Contains inaccurate/fabricated information.

So yeah Palmer Report might not be the most reliable source.

Too bad the bias that went into making that chart is front and center.

 

[FrogReaver]

Yup yup... Population density and contagious disease are a bad, bad combination. I think commuting has a lot to do with it, too. So even rural areas where few people live are still at risk if there's a lot of traffic through, eg. for the agriculture or energy industries.

I'm living in small town Texas myself, and at least in my little neck of the woods, most everyone seems to be taking social distancing pretty seriously, even if there's a little grumbling. I honestly think that has a fair bit to do with the limited spread. But starting yesterday, the governor has decided to let things open up slowly over the next few weeks, so we'll see how it goes. That will be the test, I guess.

Tennessee and GA and Florida are pretty much doing the same or will be by start of May.

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

Tennessee and GA and Florida are pretty much doing the same or will be by start of May.

Yep. And I think they're all planning to do it by different priorities and schedules? So hopefully, at a minimum, those openings will provide some helpful data for other states, irrespective of individual opinions on the topic.
Like I said: Those openings are the test. Ready or not, here they come.

 

[Zardnaar]

Second supermarket trip in 5 weeks. One in one out.

Picked the wrong day. Oh well.