FrogReaver
As long as i get to be the frog
With the delay between how long it will take cases to ramp up and then into deaths - i'm not so sure the data will get there fast enough.
D&D and the rising pandemic
With the delay between how long it will take cases to ramp up and then into deaths - i'm not so sure the data will get there fast enough.
Theo R Cwithin
I cast "Baconstorm!"
That is a disturbingly good point.
Eltab
Lord of the Hidden Layer
You're welcome, and thank you for the compliment.
The gaps in our knowledge include things that ought to be Top Priority to find out. One such is the answer to the question "How many people have / had COVID?". So far our testing has been limited and centered around people who come to the hospital. Naturally this skews the data towards high death rate from infection. Two studies reporting last weekend went out into cities - one in CA, one in MA - and asked passersby at random to give a blood sample for a survey. The CA survey found 85 times as many people exposed as they expected. The MA group found almost 1/3 of the samples had exposure. The true number of exposed people in the US is likely in the tens of millions (my extrapolation), but the vast majority are no-symptom or "nasty flu" level. But even if only .001 (one-tenth of one percent) of the total need intensive care, that is 10,000 people in peril of death.
It would be interesting - and likely scary - to build a chart comparing total US cases, deaths, and mortality chance for several diseases, as of this year or last year (whichever has compiled data): common cold, flu, COVID-19, other coronaviruses (if known), West Nile virus, the Spanish Flu in 1919, and the cholera wave of the 1830s. Also Ebola in W Africa 2016 and the Black Death sweeping Europe 1347-1350.
Imaculata
Hero
Italy had daily military convoys helping out with carrying all the coffins. Yes, it was indeed very grim.
Zardnaar
Legend
Italy and Spain had staff bail in the old folks homes.
Per capita NY state is worse. Sweden's also not doing that well. Turns out business as usual was a bad idea.
Down side of lockdowns though.
Coronavirus: World risks 'biblical' famines due to pandemic - UN
The number of people facing starvation could almost double, the World Food Programme warns.
www.bbc.com
Even if you flatten the curve someone else dies. 30 million starve to death.
Bad, worse, awful pick one.
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Zardnaar
Legend
3 weeks ago. Sweden lost that bet.
1/4/2020
www.google.com
1/4/2020
Sweden's laissez-faire conronavirus strategy alarms some scientists
"The material presented by the public health authorities is weak, even embarrassing," said one professor who is critical of Sweden's strategy.
www.google.com
Sweden is taking a risky path. Supposedly, they’re trying to get enough Swedes exposed to develop herd immunity. Problem is, that’s a tactic that works best with vaccines. That’s because the more contagious the disease, the higher the percentage of your populace needs to be exposed or immunized to achieve the goal of herd immunity. That’s why the USA has seen outbreaks of measles since our MMR vax rate dipped into the low 80s.3 weeks ago. Sweden lost that bet.
1/4/2020
Sweden's laissez-faire conronavirus strategy alarms some scientists
"The material presented by the public health authorities is weak, even embarrassing," said one professor who is critical of Sweden's strategy.
Right now, Covid-19’s R0 is estimated at 3.3 or so, slightly lower than Mumps. (See below.) If you need 60-70% (guesstimating) of your population to be exposed to get herd immunity to Covid-19, and your country of 4M+ people is currently registering a death rate of 10%, that translates into a few hundred thousand dead.
If I’m not mistaken, that’s a formula England considered and quickly rethought.
What is Herd Immunity | NOVA |PBS
When enough people are immune to a disease, the "herd" protects those who cannot safely receive a vaccine.
www.pbs.org
Zardnaar
Legend
Sweden is taking a risky path. Supposedly, they’re trying to get enough Swedes exposed to develop herd immunity. Problem is, that’s a tactic that works best with vaccines. That’s because the more contagious the disease, the higher the percentage of your populace needs to be exposed or immunized to achieve the goal of herd immunity. That’s why the USA has seen outbreaks of measles since our MMR vax rate dipped into the low 80s.
Right now, Covid-19’s R0 is estimated at 3.3 or so, slightly lower than Mumps. (See below.) If you need 60-70% (guesstimating) of your population to be exposed to get herd immunity to Covid-19, and your country of 4M+ people is currently registering a death rate of 10%, that translates into a few hundred thousand dead.
If I’m not mistaken, that’s a formula England considered and quickly rethought.
View attachment 121266
What is Herd Immunity | NOVA |PBS
When enough people are immune to a disease, the "herd" protects those who cannot safely receive a vaccine.www.pbs.org
Yeah there deaths per million isn't good.
They won't hit herd immunity but if they dodge the second wave their approach might look better.
At one point per capita they were almost twice as bad as USA.
More info for NZ
5200 tests daily, roughly 1000/million
1451 cases, 401 active
6 new cases
14 deaths approx 3/million.
Deliveries to KFC/McDonalds is for Friday drive through only. KFC won't be doing burgers.
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Azzy
ᚳᚣᚾᛖᚹᚢᛚᚠ
So, no change then?
Zardnaar
Legend
They do burgers here.
I'm guessing they're doing limited options for drive through.
Fast food outlets get ready for flood of customers
The race for fast food and delivery chains to get ready in time for Tuesday's rush is on - each store putting the work in to get their fridges fully stocked, and their deliveries up and running.
www.rnz.co.nz
Tuesday. Then in two weeks hopefully something resembling business as usual minus tourists except for the ones stuck here.
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