Nyeshet
First Post
I chose the third option.
The armor the PCs are wearing by that level is all but able to reach out and deflect the bolts on its own.
By 15th level the PCs are legendary beings. Herecles would likely be around this level, I think, +/- 5 levels.
A 15th level PC's armor will likely stop most of the shots from harming the PC. Those that do hit likely will be slowed enough by the armor not to penetrate all that far - thus dealing less damage in most cases (excluding the all but certain 1 natural 20 critical that is likely to result out of so many shots).
On the other hand, the guard should have a chance of getting in a lucky shot. I think that the W/VP system better describes this likelihood than the typical hp system. Then there is the fact that 12 guards vs 4 PCs - at least one of which likely is a magic user and able to kill most of the guards with a single strike. Consider a 20 ft wide street and the 12 guards likely loosely arranged in said street in front of the PCs. A single fire ball will not only kill most of the guards - it will probably start a couple fires on either side of the street, allowing for a distraction that may allow the PCs to leave even if reinforcements arrive.
Now, if 100 guards were sent after the PCs - lining roof tops and walls, using bows (so as to get off more than one shot per round), most around 5th level +/- 1 level, all being Fighters or Rangers (archery type), then - I think - the guards have a chance. Were I arranging such a situation, I would have twice as many guards as there are PCs face the PCs directly - approaching them from at least 3-4 sides, possibly with +1 magic weapons, certainly at least 3rd level and likely 4th or 5th - with their commander being perhaps 6th or 7th level. I'm presuming a major city /metropolis, and these guards would likely be the equivalent of the entire special ops corp. There would have ~20x as many guards as there are PCs (mostly 1st and 2nd level) arranged on walls, roofs, etc - taking aim just as the guards approached so as to have readied an action in case the PCs attacked so as to get their attack off first - maybe. They would perhaps have pre-determined targets, and there would be enough of them that at least one would likely roll a critical that first round.
Yet, even in this situation there is little chance of victory. More likely the result will be a slaughter, but the PCs will almost certainly take a significant hit or two each - and if you are using W/VP then perhaps - perhaps - you might come close to killing one of the PCs. If the PCs resisted and fought, this can be added to their record of crimes, and (further?) infamy will be added to their names. If they chose surrender after seeing how seriously the city is prepared to deal with them, then perhaps this will work in thier favor.
As a final note, the PCs would have had to have done something truly terrible for the city to set up such a situation. By this time they are legendary beings. Just walking through the city might end up as a bit of a parade - people lining the streets to see them, etc. How would a middle ages city have responded to the visit of a merchant prince or king or arch-bishop? If King Arthur had truly existed, how would a middle ages London have reacted to his revival and riding through London?
The PCs will not be treated lightly by the city. If the city has reason to believe the PCs have committed some atrocity, it will either send overwhelming forces or a small force - dependent on whether it has any reason to believe that PCs might resist. If the PCs are typically viewed as 'Good' then the force may be small, while if they are viewed as 'Evil' the force will likely be virtually every able bodied man able to wield a weapon, hear thunder, and see lightning - as the old phrase goes. Or the PCs will be 'ignored' but 'encouraged' to leave the city. If they do not leave, the city will likely send out runners to find equivalent level adventurers elsewhere - promising a reward for dealing with the PCs. The city may have to deal with the PCs for several weeks, but it will likely lose fewer citizens and guards to them than it would if directly defying such powerful beings.
The armor the PCs are wearing by that level is all but able to reach out and deflect the bolts on its own.

By 15th level the PCs are legendary beings. Herecles would likely be around this level, I think, +/- 5 levels.
A 15th level PC's armor will likely stop most of the shots from harming the PC. Those that do hit likely will be slowed enough by the armor not to penetrate all that far - thus dealing less damage in most cases (excluding the all but certain 1 natural 20 critical that is likely to result out of so many shots).
On the other hand, the guard should have a chance of getting in a lucky shot. I think that the W/VP system better describes this likelihood than the typical hp system. Then there is the fact that 12 guards vs 4 PCs - at least one of which likely is a magic user and able to kill most of the guards with a single strike. Consider a 20 ft wide street and the 12 guards likely loosely arranged in said street in front of the PCs. A single fire ball will not only kill most of the guards - it will probably start a couple fires on either side of the street, allowing for a distraction that may allow the PCs to leave even if reinforcements arrive.
Now, if 100 guards were sent after the PCs - lining roof tops and walls, using bows (so as to get off more than one shot per round), most around 5th level +/- 1 level, all being Fighters or Rangers (archery type), then - I think - the guards have a chance. Were I arranging such a situation, I would have twice as many guards as there are PCs face the PCs directly - approaching them from at least 3-4 sides, possibly with +1 magic weapons, certainly at least 3rd level and likely 4th or 5th - with their commander being perhaps 6th or 7th level. I'm presuming a major city /metropolis, and these guards would likely be the equivalent of the entire special ops corp. There would have ~20x as many guards as there are PCs (mostly 1st and 2nd level) arranged on walls, roofs, etc - taking aim just as the guards approached so as to have readied an action in case the PCs attacked so as to get their attack off first - maybe. They would perhaps have pre-determined targets, and there would be enough of them that at least one would likely roll a critical that first round.
Yet, even in this situation there is little chance of victory. More likely the result will be a slaughter, but the PCs will almost certainly take a significant hit or two each - and if you are using W/VP then perhaps - perhaps - you might come close to killing one of the PCs. If the PCs resisted and fought, this can be added to their record of crimes, and (further?) infamy will be added to their names. If they chose surrender after seeing how seriously the city is prepared to deal with them, then perhaps this will work in thier favor.
As a final note, the PCs would have had to have done something truly terrible for the city to set up such a situation. By this time they are legendary beings. Just walking through the city might end up as a bit of a parade - people lining the streets to see them, etc. How would a middle ages city have responded to the visit of a merchant prince or king or arch-bishop? If King Arthur had truly existed, how would a middle ages London have reacted to his revival and riding through London?
The PCs will not be treated lightly by the city. If the city has reason to believe the PCs have committed some atrocity, it will either send overwhelming forces or a small force - dependent on whether it has any reason to believe that PCs might resist. If the PCs are typically viewed as 'Good' then the force may be small, while if they are viewed as 'Evil' the force will likely be virtually every able bodied man able to wield a weapon, hear thunder, and see lightning - as the old phrase goes. Or the PCs will be 'ignored' but 'encouraged' to leave the city. If they do not leave, the city will likely send out runners to find equivalent level adventurers elsewhere - promising a reward for dealing with the PCs. The city may have to deal with the PCs for several weeks, but it will likely lose fewer citizens and guards to them than it would if directly defying such powerful beings.