You're saying that anyone not putting the 15 in their main stat and then picking a race to get a bonus there is playing the game wrong. Me, I'm saying that the designers wouldn't try to force that to happen. They would want someone to play a mountain dwarf wizard with a 15 starting intelligence, so +2(15) is the most likely baseline.
First of all, I never said it was wrong, I'm talking about the expected baseline. The designers did not make the game assuming you would put your highest stats in your least important abilities. We know this because they directly stated the opposite in every single quick build in the game.
Secondly, you are close to the right answer. The didn't expect dwarven wizards. They presented a lot of routes to discourage dwarven wizards (to preserve the archetype perhaps) and so the baseline assumes you would not play a dwarven wizard.
65% proves nothing. 60% is still more likely that not.
So what you have is a first reason that assumes people who don't optimize are playing the game wrong and a second reason that is pure assumption based on 5% more, which proves nothing.
It shows the expected baseline progression of the game. I'm not saying the 60% is bad and evil, just that the math shows that the designers were likely balancing around a 65% success rate. That's it.
15 is not 16. A 14 or 15 in the prime stat is reasonable. An assumption that anyone who does not optimize is playing the game wrong is not.
Actually, it isn't reasonable to assume a 14 is your highest stat. And, even if it is, the majority of races are a +2, meaning that 14 can still be a 16.
Just to show the math and the charts, here is a link from anydice
4d6 Drop Lowest
The math shows that you have a 79.4% chance of rolling at least one 15. The chances of rolling all your stats and not getting at least one 14 that a +2 race could make a 16? That is 7.2%
The statistically most likely results from rolling? 16, 14, 13, 12, 10, 9. If you put your highest stat in your prime attirbute, even if you don't pick a race that boosts it, then your expected highest stat is likely a 16, giving you a +3.
So, standard array? Gives you a 15 and a 14.
Point Buy? Even if you absolutely try and balance every stat, you will have one 14. The highest stat you can get is a 15.
Rolling? you are likely to get a 16, and you are nearly guaranteed to at least get a 14.
Then as long as we assume your highest stat is your prime stat, and that the game designers wanted to encourage race/class combos where you pick a race that gives a bonus to your prime stat, then the most likely baseline is 16 in your prime stat.
The only way I could be wrong is if the designers expected and planned for the majority of players to "play against type". If they did not, and they planned most people would play the popular archetypes, then a 16 is the baseline.
You really don't understand how someone who feels(incorrectly) that they need to have +2 in their prime stat at first level would feel relief at Tasha's?
How are their feelings incorrect if those are the feelings they have? Are you saying you know their feelings better than they do?
Or do you think that because you can make a mechanically viable character who doesn't match the baseline then they shouldn't have had the feelings they have, and therefore you can dismiss those feelings as irrelevant?
Can you show the original post? I wouldn't have said that with regard to PC stats, so it's likely you're confusing me with one of the others in the thread that you've been discussing this with. That or the context was wildly different.
Oh, yeah. The context WAS wildly different. That's saying that the baseline racial bonus to the stat should be 0, for the reasons I lay out above. People who don't pick a race with a bonus are not playing the game wrong or gimping themselves.
AH, so you are just ignoring that the baseline racial stat bonus is +1. Unless humans are above the baseline in every single possible way.
Again, if you think the baseline should be playing against type, then you would be right. If you think the baseline is that the designers wanted to encourage people to play arcehtypical characters, then the baseline is 16.
You've completely fabricated me saying that the stat bonus should be 0, instead of +2. The above quote is clearly talking about racial bonuses to the stat itself, not the bonus the stat gives.
Which since I had to ask for clarification THREE TIMES, quoting you twice directly, maybe you weren't as "clear" as you think.
You do understand game balance and the limitations it imposes, right? Some people being incapable due to rules and not lack of ability doesn't mean that it cannot be learned. Regardless of whether or not a PC can learn it, it's still a learned skill and therefore not a racial ability. It's simply a cultural one.
So your complaint is entirely theoritical? The only problem is that, in theory, someone who can't learn something int he rules could potentially learn them in the world, even if no one ever does?
Personally, I don't care if the Elves are even seen as graceful. My NPCs are going to be doing what my NPCs do, and I couldn't care less about the stuff you seem to be obsessing over. Most of my blacksmiths have a 16 strength, because I want them to be perceived as strong, and that's what I need for a PC to see them as strong.
But you are against these rules simply because it won't match the biological reality you see and want to enforce. Whether or not they have a practical effect is secondary.
Sure. People can learn to do things on their own. It's how skills develop in the first place. Doesn't stop it from being a skill. And stories from novels or other game systems are not relevant to D&D which has made it a skill that can be learned.
Sure, but if you can only learn a skill related to a biological reality, then it isn't just a skill is it? Like the Cirque du Solie example you dropped.
Or, how about this. Breastfeeding is a skill, it takes a bit of practice and there are better ways to do it and worse ways to do it. As a man, no matter how much I try and learn, I can't learn to successfully breastfeed a baby. It is a skill, but that doesn't mean anyone can learn how to successful execute the skill.
Never grew a callus before?
Not one that I could retract back into my body. Or one that covered my entire body. Tell me, have you grown a full-body callus?
According to what you just said, all dragonborn can retract their claws without the need for a feat, since it's a racial thing you are born with the ability to do. Oh.......wait. No, apparently it's learned in D&D. A dragonborn that is 50 years old and hits 16th level can take the feat and learn to retract his claws after not being able to do so for 50 years of his life.
And your argument is since it is a learned skill, it can't speak towards a biological reality. Therefore, since the dragonborn can learn to retract their claws and harden their scales, a halfling can learn how to retract their claws and harden their scales.
If not, then even if a feat is a learned skill, that doesn't mean everyone can learn it.
Roll dice a lot.

All I know is that it's a fact that it can be acquired later when the PC decides to learn a feat.
Okay, so you have no idea how you could learn it, but since the PC can decide to get it later, it must be learned.
The PC can decide to get +2 Dexteritiy later as well, therefore an elves +2 Dexterity is likely learned as well. It is already a learned ability, so it doesn't matter.