D&D 5E Alphastream - Why No RPG Company Truly Competes with Wizards of the Coast

[Staffan]

Key there being... low number of books being sold and those were remnants and edition neutral. When they did come out it would spike D&D back up. It wasn't a really good barometric to say "Pathfinder outsold D&D" because we could say the same thing about Vampire during the bankruptcy period for TSR when NOTHING was coming out and nothing was being reprinted.

As I recall, AD&D still outsold Vampire at the time. It was Palladium/Rifts who claimed the top of the heap.

 

[Alphastream]

My opinion is Disney wants to publish their own Marvel RPG not to sell more books, not even comics, but other licenced products. But I support the idea, because here the fandom has got total controll and they can, for example, the romance between Captain America and Black Widow become possible, or "recover forgotten" characters as Peter Parker's lost sister and daughter.

It's really hard to say. Big IP companies are very unpredictable regarding their IP. I was on a PAX West panel a few years ago discussing IP projects, and one of the panelists shared how with one company, the visuals are super-sacrosanct. Every image has to be checked thoroughly to make sure it is correct. Oher details, such as what the characters said, received almost no scrutiny. For another company, the backstory and text of the image is sacrosanct, and that's what has to be verified to perfection. For them, the look was far less important.

The point being, Marvel or Disney may not want anyone creating stories about Captain America and Black Widow. Or, they may love it. It's hard to say. If they really dislike people making their own stories, and if it's seen as a chore to work on RPG sourcebooks because of all the work needed to ensure the IP is handled well, then they won't care for it much. I've seen those kinds of projects and companies who can't fathom surrendering control to fans.

Disney can look at the various Star Wars RPGs. These have historically been very expensive licenses, which hampered the RPG companies. And, they were more recently relatively hard to work with in terms of IP control. That makes it all expensive and hard. If they look at whether it's worth it... there is a lot of inventory and not that many sales... and they are Star Wars. I can come up with a number of reasons why FFG's Star Wars has not been a huge success, but I doubt any of it makes sense to Disney. From their perspective, it likely seems like a pretty low-value industry. If you want to make a book, it's easier to create another technical manual and know it will be in the front display of every book store in every mall in America and much of the world.

 

[Staffan]

Lovecraft's myhtology is now too "public domain" and then the brand "Call of Chulthu" is not necessary. The serie "Lovecraft Country" and "In the mouth of the fear" are two examples. "7th Sea" could be adapted into an action-live production by somebody who wanted to launch an alternative of Disney's Pirates of the Caribean Sea.

It would be interesting to see a comparison between Call of Cthulhu sales and the sales of Fantasy Flight Games various Arkham Horror-associated board/card games (Arkham Horror, Eldritch Horror, Elder Sign, Arkham Horror the Card Game, Unfathomed, maybe more I'm forgetting). I would expect Arkham Horror outsells Call by one or two orders of magnitude.

 

[darjr]

As I recall, AD&D still outsold Vampire at the time. It was Palladium/Rifts who claimed the top of the heap.

Sorry, really, but that claim needs some evidence for me.

I’ve never heard that before.

 

[Mannahnin]

I remember Rifts being very well received, but never heard anything about Palladium being on top of the RPG market at any point.

 

[OB1]

I think the continued success of 5e really boils down to the change in philosophy on supplements (as mentioned in the article). Instead of creating supplements to appeal to people who already bought a PHB, WotC focused on creating supplements that help sell PHBs to new players.

This helps the brand in two ways, both by bringing new players in to buy more supplements and replace those who leave, while also leveraging the value of an IP asset that is already created. This is seen by how PHB sales shoot up with every new release.

In this way, it works much like the MCU. Don't like Iron Man? Maybe we'll get you on board with Dr. Strange, and then you'll go and get a D+ subscription to catch up on the story (and was the reason Disney was ultimately fine with Sony distributing Spider-Man, that character is a massive entry point for Marvel). For 5e, it's, don't like Dragons? How about a Giants or Pirates or Devils or Mythology or Horror or Magic School or ...

WotC focuses on 3-4 entry points for new players every year (just like the MCU) and markets the heck out of them, turning them into events that people who've never played still hear about.

Of course, they also embraced the rise of live streams and celebrity players (hello Crit Role and Sports Illustrated article), and that helped too, but without the switch in publishing strategy, that wave would have already crested.

 

[Oofta]

I think the continued success of 5e really boils down to the change in philosophy on supplements (as mentioned in the article). Instead of creating supplements to appeal to people who already bought a PHB, WotC focused on creating supplements that help sell PHBs to new players.

This helps the brand in two ways, both by bringing new players in to buy more supplements and replace those who leave, while also leveraging the value of an IP asset that is already created. This is seen by how PHB sales shoot up with every new release.

In this way, it works much like the MCU. Don't like Iron Man? Maybe we'll get you on board with Dr. Strange, and then you'll go and get a D+ subscription to catch up on the story (and was the reason Disney was ultimately fine with Sony distributing Spider-Man, that character is a massive entry point for Marvel). For 5e, it's, don't like Dragons? How about a Giants or Pirates or Devils or Mythology or Horror or Magic School or ...

WotC focuses on 3-4 entry points for new players every year (just like the MCU) and markets the heck out of them, turning them into events that people who've never played still hear about.

Of course, they also embraced the rise of live streams and celebrity players (hello Crit Role and Sports Illustrated article), and that helped too, but without the switch in publishing strategy, that wave would have already crested.

I don't think anyone really knows, it was a lot of things. My list in no particular order would include things like

• People wanting something more personal in this age of a digital life (i.e. facebook, video games). a fantasy game is real in a way that those things are not.
• General acceptance of geek culture and fantasy. Comic book movies contribute to this.
• A "good enough" ruleset that while not perfect is reasonably approachable and doesn't completely fall apart after a certain level.
• A system that allows for many different styles with rulings over rules and simple group preference.
• The free, readily available, basic rules being complete enough to get people hooked. Try a game or two, it's free! Then they get you hooked.
• Readily available advice and "how-to" blogs and videos.
• Streaming that shows people just having fun playing the game.
• A lot of creative types, people that are in the public eye, coming out of the closet as gamers or at least being more open about it.
• They have a team who love, and understand, the game.

The change to the publishing strategy helped as well.

 

[Staffan]

Sorry, really, but that claim needs some evidence for me.

I’ve never heard that before.

I can't find any primary source for it, but I distinctly remember seeing a list of the top selling RPGs of 1997 and being surprised at (a) Palladium being on top and (b) AD&D/TSR only falling to second place despite not publishing anything for half a year. Given the state of the Internet at the time, this was likely on rec.games.frp.dnd or rec.games.frp.misc, but the archives of Usenet aren't what they once were.

While hunting for a source, I did find that White Wolf was apparently having a bit of a slump at the time, since all five of their main RPGs had been published and they were dealing with some internal issues. It's quite likely that had TSR collapsed in 1995 or 1996 instead of 1997, White Wolf would have been on top, but I'm as certain as I can be that in 1997, it was Palladium.

Edit: I'll add that it is quite possible that the list I saw was referring to a limited slice of the RPG market, e.g. the sales through a particular distributor or something like that. But it's been 25 years, and it's pretty much only the surprise value of Palladium that made it stick with me.

 

[Thomas Shey]

I can come up with a number of reasons why FFG's Star Wars has not been a huge success, but I doubt any of it makes sense to Disney. From their perspective, it likely seems like a pretty low-value industry. If you want to make a book, it's easier to create another technical manual and know it will be in the front display of every book store in every mall in America and much of the world.

Well, both of these can be more or less true at once; that its hard to make a licensed product, even one with a big footprint work for you (though I'd always heard that the original WEG Star Wars did pretty well by itself at the time), and that the whole industry just doesn't have that much yield unless you're absolutely at the top of it.

Gods know, this will be, what, the fifth time someone has tried a Marvel RPG, with limited success all four prior times.

 

[Morrus]

It's always been interesting to me that licensed RPGs never make the top echelon of games. I suspect part of that is that often lack longevity. Certainly the IP itself (Star Wars, Marvel, etc.) is of an order of magnitude bigger than D&D.