Like… What’s the problem if everything you try doesn’t work as you expect 1 out of a million times? That’s not a specter, those are much better odds than almost anything in life and we play the game of life just fine.
Perhaps not to you. To me, it is.
And the way people
actually talk about this stuff? It's a HELL of a lot more than "one in a million." It's "this monster isn't doing what I want, I'm going to change its stats." It's "I don't want this boss to die before it gets to attack." It's "the players have already figured out the mystery, I'm going to change who is guilty." It's quantum ogres and "invisible rails" that guide an entire game.
In 5e they are part of the rules.
But are you saying fudging is the same sort of thing as that? Because as soon as you do, then your argument falls apart. I genuinely do not understand the difference between "lie to your players about what a roll's result was" and "decide that you don't
have to make a hard move, even though the rules permit it, a soft move is adequate". The former is
very clearly "dispense with the rules, they don't matter." The latter is literally obeying the explicit, direct rules text about how to respond to moves: you can always choose to make a soft move if doing so fits the fiction.
Or do you genuinely mean to say that the rules of 5e are explicitly saying, "You can ignore a player's die roll at any time if that suits what you intend to do"? Because that would sound rather like a
concession of my point, not a refutation thereof.
But the player doesn’t know what consequence they will be facing if rolling a failure or partial success. Since they cannot know they cannot learn, right?
How can they not know? It literally is whatever happens next! Like...that's how DW works. "Begin and end with the fiction." It's
literally right there.