D&D 5E Are D&D sales declining? Teos Abadia takes a look.

[Iosue]

2021 was still essentially a pandemic year, so it’s possible that Amazon’s data for that year is incomplete.

 

[MerricB]

More responses from Ray Winninger:

 

[Parmandur]

More responses from Ray Winninger:

It would be astounding if it were: kind of wonder what those exceptions were.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

It would be astounding if it were: kind of wonder what those exceptions were.

Which books were on his watch? I could probably tell you.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

On the subject being discussed: I think that it's perfectly reasonable that both Winninger and @Alphastream Teos are right. It's just that @MerricB 's tweet up there is phrased badly. Merric is wrong that "Van Richten's Guide to Ravenloft sold poorly". Winninger is (of course) correct that it sold well. Likely insanely well.

However, if Teos pointed out that it dropped off compared to many of the books before it, that's probably true too. At least in print - though it did better than most of the books that came after it. There is a noticeable decline in D&D print sales over the last two years. 5e is still selling VERY VERY WELL. Just not quite at it's peak anymore.

I'd suspect that D&D Beyond has taken some of those sales, but I would be surprised to find that it's even half of them.

 

[Parmandur]

Which books were on his watch? I could probably tell you.

Depends on what he counts, but he started running things in mid-2020, so broadly Icewind Dale to Spelljammer.

 

[darjr]

Very interesting insight from Ray.

 

[Parmandur]

Very interesting insight from Ray.

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I appreciate his praise for @Alphastream analysis work. We all already knew the data was limited, but Teos gave some very insightful observations out if it.

 

[teitan]

Are D&D Sales Declining?

In all other RPGs and D&D editions, we see diminishing returns. Each follow-up supplement, adventure, or other product will sell fewer copies and have a shorter tail than the first ones. Is 5E D&D seeing declining sales?

alphastream.org

He first talks about the old normal for D&D and other RPGs. A huge first burst in sales then continuing rapid decline. Using Bookscan data he then takes a look at how D&D is doing. The first thing is it’s still doing phenomenal and the sharp declines are not there. However he does conclude there is a slowing down in sales, a more gradual one.

I do wonder if it’s a post pandemic dip. It’ll be interesting to see what happens through 2024 and beyond.

Please read the article before commenting, there are interesting details and twists.

Pre-release of the new revision most likely.

 

[teitan]

It's also possible that sales have slowed in anticipation of the 2024 edition. IIRC, there was a similar effect after the announcements of 4E and 5E.

There was no similar effect. 4e was dead when 5e was announced for playtesting and there was a 2 year span where it was edition neutral materials or nostalgia products. From 3e to 4e? sure. From 2e to 3e? yes. 4e to 5e? Might as well have said D&D was GI Joe from 1995-2009, 2010-2021 with as much as they put into it. 4e went from a slate of announced products to cancelling most of the products without statements, then a slow drip of a couple things to nothing just before the playtest announcement. Some products were announced but they had no rules content in them, Ed's FR, a drow book, then some adventures that supported multiple editions. Reprints of 0e, 1e, 2e, comparatively robust 3.5 reprints followed and then the 5e playtest products at Gencon and after.