jmucchiello said:
Your experiment only shows that making a book nearing the end of its product cycle available for free download will hurt the remaining print products in the channel.
Pirates often say that piracy is OK because they're sharing out of print or older works -- products that are at the end of their life cycle. (Typically they have no idea as to whether something is out of print or not. But then, I see people selling products on eBay all the time as "OUT OF PRINT!!!" when I know I have hundreds in my warehouse.)
If you like, then, take my results simply as evidence of the harm they do, contrary to the "no harm, no foul" line that pirates espouse, in these situations. A publisher might see sales of an older book dropping sharply, might not know it's due to piracy -- and might decide that there is not a viable market for a reprint or an updated edition, based on sales in the market of the current one.
Thus, the pirates hurt the publisher (lost revenues) and the fans who play by the rules (who are deprived of future products and improvements for a game they may love and actively play).
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As an aside, have people been subjecting Baen to the same level of scrutiny and second-guessing as I'm getting? How do we know they're not skewing their data to serve the ideological prejudice of the guy running the Free Library? Have they given us sales breakdowns on ALL the titles you can download for free, or only the ones that back up the thesis that it's good for sales? ("We can omit these data...we know that these other factors led sales to decline, so we wouldn't want people to think it was because we gave the books away for free...") Does almost everyone accept their inferences as true, because it's what we want to believe? ("I can download free stuff and feel good about it!")
I mean, look, I stood to gain if my experiment worked out well. I was ready to rake in the bucks and get the jump on my competitors with this marketing innovation. I was selling the idea to retailers and distributors, preaching that it was going to draw new players and boost sales.
My results are by no means conclusive, I'm the first to admit. But at least they are cause to be skeptical about how far we can all go with the results that Baen has reported, and to question how well those results may translate to other fields, like RPGs.