So full disclosure- the reason behind the poll is I was genuinely curious what the results might be given the ... different demographics of this website. Here's a few things I've been thinking of when trying to consider how Avatar 2 will perform:
1. It's James Cameron. Every.... single .... time .... that people have bet against him, they have lost. Heck, I still remember seeing a trailer for Titanic in the movie theater and saying (mockingly) to the friend I was with, "Wonder how that's going to end?" So, yeah- at some point he will be wrong. But are you comfortable saying this will be the time?
2. A lot of people mock the original Avatar. Boring. Bad plot. "Unobtainium." But you know what? It's the highest-grossing movie of all time. Second highest, adjusted for inflation. More than Star Wars (the original). More than Avengers End Game. More E.T. More than the Sound of Music (#6!). Pick your great movie, and then stick it in a pipe and smoke it because Avatar beat it .... by a lot.
3. It even has a pretty popular theme park area- in Animal Kingdom (part of Disney World), the most popular area, by far, is the Avatar land. Which means that a lot of kids have been exposed to it.
4. I've heard local high school kids talk about seeing it- it's a thing for them. Is it a "minions" level thing. Dunno. But it's on the radar.
5. Something most people aren't familiar with is the changed China policy - a lot of people assume that movies are catering to China, which is partly true, but China has largely closed their theaters to many American blockbusters over the last few years. This movie is going to get a full theatrical release in China ... and, combined with the very recent easing of COVID protocols due to the protests, could result in a decent bump in worldwide gross.
6. This kinda sorta needs to be a hit. To be clear- there's over ONE BEELLEEON dollars invested in the future of these movies, and there are more in the pipeline.
So I'm seeing all this. On the other hand ... I also get the sense that a lot of people just aren't feeling it. I generally have a decent feel for how movies will do, but my spidey sense has always been off with Cameron.