Blue Ray or HD-DVD?

[Lhorgrim]

The porn industry is going Blu-ray.

The Pr0n is never wrong. Blu-ray shall spread like an unstoppable virus through the darkened dorm rooms of the world. This shall usher in a fantastic new age of crystal clear, razor crisp "adult films".

 

[Black Omega]

The porn industry is going Blu-ray.

Damn, he's right.

Ok, the DVD wars are over.

 

[Truth Seeker]

-Shakes head, at the coming cost, to the masses, with the format wars, now looming-

Universal format...please.

 

[Ranger REG]

This shall usher in a fantastic new age of crystal clear, razor crisp "adult films".

*wakes up*

Adult films? Where?

 

[Ranger REG]

Universal format...please.

The existing one or next-gen?

Yeah, when DVD first came out, how come we didn't go through the same crappy war with videocassette format (VHS vs. Beta)? And why aren't we doing that for the second-gen DVD instead of having two private companies battle out their propietary formats?

 

[drothgery]

Yeah, when DVD first came out, how come we didn't go through the same crappy war with videocassette format (VHS vs. Beta)?

We almost did. But the technology most of the major players were proposing to use ended up being close enough that they papered over their differences and came up with one standard format (or, really, a set of formats that all used roughly the same media) that was supposed to handle everything.

The reason this didn't happen this time, despite a fair amount of effort from Toshiba's part (and at least a token effort on Sony's) is because their proposals involved radically different media types and laser wavelengths. Neither was willing to compromise on this point.

 

[Rodrigo Istalindir]

The existing one or next-gen?

Yeah, when DVD first came out, how come we didn't go through the same crappy war with videocassette format (VHS vs. Beta)? And why aren't we doing that for the second-gen DVD instead of having two private companies battle out their propietary formats?

Because when they were working out the DVD format, the primary business model was 'sell players that people will play rented movies on'. The $ value of retail sales of VHS cassettes was trivial compared to box office/ppv/over the air rights. The consumer electronics companies thought that licensing fees and such *for the media* would be small compared to the revenue from player sales.

Cheap retail DVDs totally changed that, and retail sales now account for a substantial amount of a movies revenue (and in many cases exceed all other forms). Now all of a sudden the companies think that they can make an absolute fortune off of licensing their format. Make a few bucks off the players -- a lot of $$ at first, but prices will drop; you an almost get a DVD player with your Happy Meal now. But get a piece of every disc sold and that adds up quick, and is recurring revenue to boot. If you own the patents and other rights to the format, your slice is bigger.

The new format has zero to do with better quality. It is purely, 100% about closing the DeCSS barn door and re-selling the same stuff to you again at a higher price. The nominal better quality is merely window-dressing.

 

[Black Omega]

We almost did. But the technology most of the major players were proposing to use ended up being close enough that they papered over their differences and came up with one standard format (or, really, a set of formats that all used roughly the same media) that was supposed to handle everything.

The reason this didn't happen this time, despite a fair amount of effort from Toshiba's part (and at least a token effort on Sony's) is because their proposals involved radically different media types and laser wavelengths. Neither was willing to compromise on this point.

Truth. HD DVD is cheaper because it uses basically the same DVD tech but develops it a step further. Blu-ray is not cheaper because it's a new type of DVD that required a special coating to protect it. (and now apparently can be steel brushed without harm). It's more than a step beyond current DVDs and so would involve changes in manufacturing. It sounds like with HD DVD they can use the same manufacturing as with standard DVD's while Blu-Ray requires retooling the equipment.

 

[John Crichton]

The bottom line right now is that only the super hard core and folks with cash to burn are buying up the HD-DVD players and pre-ordering the BR players. Both are sold out all over the place and the companies can't make them fast enough. There are a respectible number of movies already out for HD-DVD and BR isn't far behind. However, there will only be one model of BR player out before the fall as Sony & Pioneer just pushed back their players release dates. However, I honestly don't think it matters.

The early adopters don't play a huge factor in these types of things. Both players are way too expensive (HD-DVD @ $500 & BR @ $1000) to expect anyone to buy them in mass quantities (read: by the millions), even if the movies aren't that expensive (around $20 a title). The PS3 will sell out when it launches (4 million units in November & 2 mil more by Christmas if Sony can pump out the E3 projection numbers) which will destroy the installed base of the HD-DVD players unless somehow they are able to bump up their manufacturing process.

The format war won't even be won this holiday season. Even if the PS3/BR players outsell their HD-DVD counterparts it will be the issues like copyright protection, title selection and availability that really matter. There are other factors but those are the biggies.

The fact is that by the end of 2006, about 25% of US households will have a TV capable of receiving a HD signal. HDTVs are getting much cheaper and between the videogame and movie industries (not to mention TV on DVD) the install base will simply grow and grow. The only TV channels that don't offer programming in HD now simply don't pull in the ratings for them to make the effort of putting out both signals. But in a few years I would be shocked if networks like SFC aren't broadcast in HD (side rant: I'm still annoyed that the show is taped in HD but I have to wait for the DVDs or on the UHD network to see the highest quality). The major networks have nearly all their prime-time programming in HD right now. Not to mention most sporting events.

The "don't know you really want it until you see it" factor will continue to take a while to develop in consumer's collective minds. And companies offering hi-speed internet, cell phone service plus HD capable cable/satellite services all in one package will start to push further and further into the general public. Right now, it's either the sticker shock of initial cost (TV + HD tuner + install price + DVR + audio system) or the monthy fees (~$60 to start) that stops interested consumers from jumping on board.

When that cost seeminly disappears into a combined bill, you can get a good HDTV for $300 and a home theater for the same price the HD-DVD/BR market will really unfold and we'll start to see who the winner will be. Of course, it is possible that both formats could linger for a while and dual-format players will be king and then it won't matter which format a film/show is released on.

 

[Ranger REG]

When that cost seeminly disappears into a combined bill, you can get a good HDTV for $300 and a home theater for the same price the HD-DVD/BR market will really unfold and we'll start to see who the winner will be.

When will I see a HDTV with ATSC tuner built-in for $300?

Of course, it is possible that both formats could linger for a while and dual-format players will be king and then it won't matter which format a film/show is released on.

At least they're encoded on the same physical disk format. I remembered during the VHS/Beta war, you cannot fit a VHS cassette into Betamax player.

BTW, do the patents also covers the codecs of Blu-Ray and HD-DVD?