Can ISLAND CASTAWAYS really see the past/future?

[s/LaSH]

Well, humans can do some fairly odd things; does anyone have a good explanation for why certain people in my family kill battery-powered watches just by wearing them? Or various other electromagnetic phenomena I've observed. Precognition, on the other hand, does seem to be unlikely, except as extrapolation from normally unavailable sensory inputs. Which aren't as unlikely as you'd think; I've been doing some weird stuff to my neural pathways for years, and have pretty keen senses (and the ability to coax my blood vessels into doing things they don't want to do, which is handy), such that someone will walk up to me and say "You probably don't know, but-" and I'll say "actually I do, you were talking about it at the other end of the house", thus short-circuiting a long conversation as though I'd already had it. Not supernatural, but then again, I'm not really trying.

Someone with the above-mentioned interpolation talents could probably use sensory data, consciously or unconsciously, to do impressive things. After all, if the human brain can do calculus to catch a ball in a parabolic trajectory, it can probably do some basic probability calculations, and could do so five hundred years ago too...

 

[Sollir Furryfoot]

Breakdown of the challenge linked above I found sometime back: http://www.alternativescience.com/james-randi.htm

 

[Mark]

Can psychics really see the past/future?

Not if the many state lotteries that go on every single day are any test of actual ability...

 

[Hammerhead]

If psychics could really see the past/future, they wouldn't work as psychics. They'd play the lottery, the stock market, and get heaps of money. Instead, they charge a few bucks a minute for phone calls. Figure it out, people.

If you had psychic abilties, what would you do?

 

[DMScott]

Breakdown of the challenge linked above I found sometime back: http://www.alternativescience.com/james-randi.htm

This and similar criticisms of JREF challenge posit two hypotheticals that have not yet occurred: one, that the JREF would require an unreasonable test beyond what the subject claims to be able to do, and two that someone might succeed but have the JREF say they failed. In the former case, the subject agrees to the test conditions, so they are by definition reasonable. For the latter case, the tests are always set up so that some clearly defined event represents success, and the prize is held by a trustee with a signed letter instructing them to hand the prize over if the success condition occurs regardless of what the JREF representatives say. No-one has yet achieved the prize.

In the case of Mr. Kolodzey specifically, neither the JREF nor any other researcher can legally or ethically enforce the conditions necessary to test his claim (that he can exist only on water), so no test is possible. Similarly, if someone claimed they could survive a gunshot to the temple or some other event very likely to harm themselves or others if the claim was not true, no test would be conducted.

 

[TDRandall]

Well, I don't much carry for real psychic powers, I'm more on the line with the "psychic's" unrecognized subconscious ability to pick up and process/combine info that others filter out and ignore. You usually see only what you expect to see unless the facts stare you in your face.

But I also just had a flashbulb moment here. Assuming you thought it through before-hand, if you COULD do it, wouldn't you be shooting yourself in the foot if you DID do it to claim a "measely" million? After all, once you had done that you'd NEVER (if you were ... is it precognizant?) be allowed to bet on a horse race, or buy a lottery ticket, or ... whatever. If you were telekinetic, out goes the roulette wheel, etc.

Lord help you in today's culture if you went public, did something that supposedly lined up with your 'ability' and other people followed your lead. If it didn't pan out I could easily see a whole string of suits brought against you in this culture for some type of misrepresentation or fraud. Seems like the scrutiny and inevitable 'fame', papparazi, and flood of "could you give us money - my situation is so unique" requests would drive most people crazy.

Much better to live a laid back life and win the pick-three or pick-four roughly every year to help you buy a larger-than-normal purchase, or bet on the right color you know will (or can influence to) come up on the wheel - but only say 3 out of ever four spins - a few times rather than the exact right number 3 or 4 times in a row. Then you can attribute it to luck, and move on to the next casino with none the wiser.

If you DID want fame and money and were precognizant or clairevoyant, then your best bet would be to become an "incredibly lucky" reporter/photographer where your abilities never be brought to public light.

 

[Turanil]

What are your thoughts on this? What about using psychics to help solve some of the current investigations

Well, for the little I know, my opinion is that clairaudience and clairvoyance exist. However, I believe that psychics have much less power than what our modern urban mythology pretends, plus psychic detection is not reliable (sometimes it works but it's imprecise, other times it just doesn't work).

Now there this documented case (if the media can be believed at all) about this US psychic who worked for the military, detailing secret bases of enemies and finding where American soldiers were kept prisoners. But obviously (if this case is really true, and why not after all), such characters are extremely rare in the extreme. For a guy like this, dozen of psychics with but a feeble clairsentience ability, and hundred of charlatans (with a majority being people who also deceive themselves about being psychically gifted).

Now believe what you want, but if I had some clairsentience ability, I wouldn't give past/future readings at 30$. I would directly win the euro-loterie and its 25 millions of dollars!!!!

 

[Algolei]

I only believe things that make sense.

No, that's a lie; I don't believe things that make sense, either.

 

[LiKral]

I don't think many people would want to hide their psychic talents. People will go far to become famous! Many people are trying to become famous with psychic talents that they don't have - wouldn't someone with real psychic talents want this too? The wise course of action would be to keep quiet about your powers and invest sensibly on the stock market (not too many wins) but how many people are wise?

 

[TheAuldGrump]

I believe in psychics the same way I believe in bunko artists. Exactly the same way.

The Auld Grump, give me The Amazing Randi every time...