I think quite a few of us took the gamble (especially with the cheap initial price of places like Amazon) when 4e first came out and it increased initial sales drastically.
I think the gamble did inflate sales and the percentage of "No change: Tried 4e and went back" is somewhat reflective.
There were a lot of people on ENWorld (and other forums) claiming to buy the game unseen due to the Amazon prices. Some did it out of genuine curiosity. Some did it out of fear that the majority of people would switch to 4e would become the only available choice for DND. Others liked what they saw from the info being released and claimed to buy copies for every member of their group to encourage them to switch despite having not seen the full game.
I bought 4e unseen due to it being cheap on amazon.co.uk - I have never played it, and am currently running 3.5e and Labyrinth Lord, playing LL. However my club the London D&D Meetup Group, which is probably more representative of the hobby than ENW, is playing about 55-60% 4e to 40-45% 3.5e. New 3.5e campaigns are still frequently launched, but 4e ones are more common.
Still anecdotal...the Chicago D&D meetup group is 100% 3.5 no changeover whatsoever in their games yet.
S'mon said:Re 3.5e, I think a lot of people share my opinion that the game doesn't work at high level. This caused many people to drop the system. However once this is recognised, it plays perfectly well with a ca 1-10 level spread, more like 1e et al.
Someday, WotC (or whomever the IP holder is at that time) may produce a version of the game I'll embrace again, but I hope its before I wind up in some old-folks home. (I'm 41, so tick, tick, tick, tick...)