Changeover Poll

[Derren]

Nothing we didn't already know.

RPG.net is "Roleplay Promiscuous."

They are roleplayers first and foremost; D&D players by circumstance. Ask them tomorrow what they are playing and it will be something different.

It says exactly what we all already know about 4e: It was designed to be appealing to a wide audience, not necessarily to its niche audience.

The question is the same as it has always been: Whether or not that will prove to be a successful strategy in the long term.

There are 2 theories over at RPGNet.
1) People on ENworld generally own more 3E books and thus are less willing to part with them

2) People on RPGNet usually play multiple RPG systems and are thus not bothered much by the limited scope of 4E. Some people over there even confirm that if they would only be able to play a single RPG they would like 4E a lot less.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

Right. I don't think there's much brand loyalty to D&D over at RPG.net.

 

[Brown Jenkin]

The interesting question over at RPG.net would be how many are new D&D players over there. At ENWorld I expect most people here were already playing D&D. At RPG.net there is a broader range of players with different systems. Enworld shows that lots of existing D&D players here arn't switching. The larger support for 4E at the wider fan site way be indicitive of 4E supporters migrating there because it is more pro-4E or it could be that RPG.net shows many more new players for 4E. If it is the former it may show that D&D players are merely migrating to places they fit in better, if it is the latter it may be the good news that WotC was hoping for.

 

[Treebore]

You also need to ask the rpg.net members who voted on the poll here to not vote on that boards poll.

Plus I wouldn't give the poll any significance until it reaches 750 votes. From then on it becomes more meaningful.

IF you want the data to have more meaning, do a series of "demographic" poll questions. Ask things like how long have you played 4e? How long did you play 3E? How frequent were your D&D games? Age range? Income range? how many 3E books do you own? How many 4E books have you bought so far? How many hours do each of your games sessions average?

Then link them all together, and ask that people only answer if they are able/willing to answer all the linked poll questions.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

There are 2 theories over at RPGNet.
1) People on ENworld generally own more 3E books and thus are less willing to part with them

2) People on RPGNet usually play multiple RPG systems and are thus not bothered much by the limited scope of 4E. Some people over there even confirm that if they would only be able to play a single RPG they would like 4E a lot less.

I'm sort of a hybrid. I own a LOT of 3.X. But I own a lot of HERO, RIFTS, and many other systems. I don't sell my game books unless I no longer like a game, not if I'm just not currently playing it, so the financial impact of a new edition had ZERO effect on whether I'd enjoy 4Ed. My issues with it were contained entirely within the game itself.

While I don't consider myself limited to playing a single RPG, I AM limited in that I can play only D&D with my 2 main game groups, both of which currently contain a preponderance of veteran gamers as members. Like me, many didn't have major issues with the game in and of itself, but rather in the context of it as a replacement for 3.X. Had it been released as "Bob's Game Co. Presents: Realms O' Kewl Phantasy 1Ed," we might have had a different reaction to the game, and may have even tried a few sessions of it.

 

[Aeolius]

While I have dabbled with a few other games; Gamma World, Traveller, and the like over the course of the past 30 years, I stuck with D&D for the majority of my role-playing time. I just don't see the point of detracting from a game I enjoy, to learn another game. This applied to prior editions of D&D as well.

I skipped over 2e as it didn't seem like an improvement over 1e. 3e inspired me to create, plus I felt the time was right to switch to the current edition since my games are somewhat odd in their own right, so I switched. I am skipping 4e for the same reason I am skipping 2e, but this time around I have d20/OGL in my corner, so I am ready for the long haul.

 

[Dragon Snack]

While I'm going to respond to people, I should point out that even though I'm not playing any D&D right now, when I return it will be 3.x and not 4.0. I'm not arguing FOR 4.0, I'm advocating an objective look at the numbers presented. I'm looking at the potential market for editions.

Well, I did say they bought the 4E PHB, didn't I? I also left the possibility that they may buy PHB2. That's one book per year. For comparison, I used to buy 10 or so WotC books every year, and now I don't buy any. In other words, for each me WotC lost, they had to gain 10 people who buy "a little." Now, this poll cannot be used to analyze that fresh blood, but it can be used to extrapolate that WotC needs a whole lot of fresh blood to replace 58% hardcore RPG geeks who are no longer buying their products (or are buying in a greatly diminished capacity).

I agree with you, but you are assuming things outside the purview of this poll. Who's to say how many "No Change" people were also "one book" people? After all, if one book got you by in 3.x, then it probably serves your purposes. Why buy a new edition?

It's a leap on my part, in the opposite direction-- but not huge.

I'd say the burden of proof is heavier for you to suggest that folks who aren't playing very often are nevertheless buying heavily into the game. It's an odd claim.

Where did I claim that? My claim was that if you are playing you are in the 'market' for a new book, far more so than if you are not playing.

The rather obvious assertion that 32% is about 1/3 is not my opinion.

The assertion was not 1/3 are playing, it was that 2/3 are NOT. 59% are not, that is also not my opinion.

59%=/=66%...

And what, exactly, do you think my opinion of the game is, such that my analysis of this poll would be less than objective?

Here's a funny thing, I used to have a quote from you in my sig about 4.0 and "the smell coming from the kitchen". I think we're in agreement about 4.0, my quibble is the inflation of the numbers in this poll.

There is a good reason that I am using the 2/3rds analysis. Please allow me to explain.
<snip>
That's 59%, saying No to 4E. Not just generally No, not mostly No, but absolutely No. No 4E at all. Entirely earlier editions.

(apologetic look)

Not my fault or my doing. People chose, not me, how they would respond to this poll.
<snip>
And some have chimed in, and informed me that they have quit the hobby since 4E was introduced. Their posts are earlier in this thread.

So if that is factored in, we really are talking about 2 out of 3, or at the very least 6 out of 10.

Do you realize you said that "people chose, not me, how they would respond to this poll" and then proceeded to say you "factored in" a bunch of people who posted they no longer play to inflate your numbers?

6 out of 10 I can live with. It still rounds up from the actual responses that you got, but it's certainly closer than saying 2/3. It is also probably within the 'margin of error' for the poll.

I would suspect you'd see pretty different results on different boards. I don't know about the Gleemax boards (haven't been there for years), but RPGNet, for example, seems very bullish on 4e.

There was a poll on Reaper's message boards that, if you took off the "I play something else" option, gave you similar results (far fewer responses however). Surprising, given the number of people who have asked for Dragonborn minis or converted minis into Dragonborn over there. Anecdotally, they also sold out of quite a few of their Reptus (the Lizardfolk/Dragonfolk faction of their Warlord game) minis at Gen Con.

I've seen similar results on other smaller message boards as well, but I wasn't surprised at those numbers, given the population of those boards.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

Here's a funny thing, I used to have a quote from you in my sig about 4.0 and "the smell coming from the kitchen". I think we're in agreement about 4.0, my quibble is the inflation of the numbers in this poll.

That was very quotable. You have good taste in sigs.

 

[Edena_of_Neith]

The poll here has far more respondents than at RPGnet.
More than 5 times as many.

I think we need to wait for more votes to accumulate on the RPGnet Changeover Poll.

 

[Edena_of_Neith]

What are Hobby Store Owners and Workers saying now?

Back at the time of the First Changeover Poll, they were commenting on how their customers were half and half.
Are they still saying that? Or commenting on a change in numbers?