As long as i get to be the frog
No one has done that.The standard deviation/variance shouldn't be mistaken for a + damage tolerance or the range.
you aren't giving up anything by missingIf you miss your attacks, you are giving up 8d6+10 damage, even with 100+ hp, 38 average damage can be very important to ending the fight early.
If you had the choice about this ever turn then sure, but we are talking about making this choice once at char gen and being stuck with it the rest of the campaign. It's not a bad decision and has next to nothing to do with any potential TPK'sTaking unnecessary risks are bad decisions.
I never said it was reduced to 0. I claimedVariance is never reduced no matter how many rolls you make. You're thinking about the average of rolls versus the expected average roll. 2-4 rolls are definitely not enough to evoke the Law of Large Numbers as a relevant point, though.
A fighter making 3 attacks has a mode of 0 for the turn as well. 10% or so of all outcomes will result in 0 damage. That isn't a significant factor to consider though as he is still most likely to hit with at least 1 attack and very likely to hit with 2 of his 3 attacks.Don't forget that its about likely scenarios as well. Actually, in the rogue's case, the most likely damage output the rogue produces in a round is 0, almost 4x as likely as their second most likely damage of 31. Their chart is heavily skewed such that alot of their average damage is due to their very high damage upwards of 106 damage theoretically possible but highly improbable. I'm talking a 1.48x10^-7% chance of occuring and less than a 1% chance to do higher than 70 damage. So they have a large chunk of probability on the left-hand side of the curve and a very thin tail skewing all the way to the right.