D&D and the rising pandemic

[Umbran]

You aren't following the science though.

My wife is in teleconferences multiple times a week with world-leading researchers on the topic.

You don't get an "apology" for two reasons:

1) The answer now is the same as before - statistics. Hundreds of thousands of humans. Two cats, with questionable cases. The number of known cases worldwide in humans has nearly doubled since we last talked about this. And still two cats. One of the larger pet insurance companies in the US covers half a million animals. They have seen zero rise in claims regarding cases with covid-19 type symptoms. Meanwhile, humans are dying by the hundreds.

I didn't say it cannot happen at all. I said that the probability and risk to people is, on the scale of things, nonexistent. Sure, if a thing is a one in a million chance, and you take a few million ties, you may see a couple. That is not a significant thing for people to take home and worry about.

2) You seem to be more concerned with "apologies" and winning points for being right. I am more concerned with getting people the best information to make the best decisions possible. We are looking at a matter that may very well kill hundreds of thousands of people, and you want an apology? This is not, should not, and will not be about you, personally. Please get that into your head, and get your mind focused not on being technically correct, but getting people focused on the things they can to to actually protect themselves and their communities.

You know what leaning into this cat thing will do? Kill cats. People will (and already are) overreacting, and doing incredibly stupid things with their animals. You are adding to this problem, not taking away from it. Congratulations.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

You realize that there are no symptoms unique to Covid-19

Intimately. My father is an MD with a MPH- we discuss respiratory ailments and epidemics with disturbingly common frequency.

 

[FrogReaver]

I absolutely followed the science.

The veterinarians themselves stated that there was no way to know for sure what made the cat sick without tests to be performed after the cat cleared quarantine, and why.

The symptoms could have had multiple causes, many completely unrelated to a Coronavirus infection. Hence the tests.

Only believing something once you have 100% certainty isn't science.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

You realize that there are no symptoms unique to Covid-19

“Evidence“ that- for the dogs- was shaky at best, and for the cat has yet to be dispositively determined.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Only believing something once you have 100% certainty isn't science.

Don’t play Kreskin- you have zero idea about my “beliefs”, only that I followed the statements of the professionals.

When new evidence came in from a case with none of the problems present in the earlier anecdotes, professional opinion changed, and I accepted that change.

Adapting to changes in verifiable facts is 100% scientific.

 

[FrogReaver]

1) The answer now is the same as before - statistics. Hundreds of thousands of humans. Two cats, with questionable cases. The number of known cases worldwide in humans has nearly doubled since we last talked about this. And still two cats. One of the larger pet insurance companies in the US covers half a million animals. They have seen zero rise in claims regarding cases with covid-19 type symptoms. Meanwhile, humans are dying by the hundreds.

You mean besides the zoo cats right?

I didn't say it cannot happen at all. I said that the probability and risk to people is, on the scale of things, nonexistent. Sure, if a thing is a one in a million chance, and you take a few million ties, you may see a couple. That is not a significant thing for people to take home and worry about.

So how many pets tested for it have came back negative? It's hard to take statements like - we have no other cases of this seriously if no one is checking!

That said based on the current evidence it appears to infect few animals - but we really don't know for certain how many it's impacting if no tests are being done.

2) You seem to be more concerned with "apologies" and winning points for being right. I am more concerned with getting people the best information to make the best decisions possible. We are looking at a matter that may very well kill hundreds of thousands of people, and you want an apology?

I thought cat's couldn't infect people? So seems to me no one is dying from cat infections of coronavirus.

This is not, should not, and will not be about you, personally. Please get that into your head, and get your mind focused not on being technically correct, but getting people focused on the things they can to to actually protect themselves and their communities.

I'd rather talk about coronavirus and cat's at the moment. There's plenty of time in the rest of my day to persuade the people I know to be smart about this thing.

You know what leaning into this cat thing will do? Kill cats. People will (and already are) overreacting, and doing incredibly stupid things with their animals. You are adding to this problem, not taking away from it. Congratulations.

I am not responsible in any way for any one elses actions. That's not how life works.

 

[FrogReaver]

Don’t play Kreskin- you have zero idea about my “beliefs”, only that I followed the statements of the professionals.

When new evidence came in from a case with none of the problems present in the earlier anecdotes, professional opinion changed, and I accepted that change.

Adapting to changes in verifiable facts is 100% scientific.

Yes verifiable facts.
1. The cat had symptoms consistent with coronoavirus
2. The cat tested positive for it
3. The test had potential to be cross contaminated

The scientific conclusion to draw around those facts is that it was likely the cat had coronavirus - though not certain.

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

With the tigers getting sick, that means the cases of the house cats maybe having it gains a little bit more credibility, since the tigers are just very big cats. I am also less likely to believe the possible cases involving the dogs were credible because people tend to have much more contact with their dogs, than with their cats, and we would have heard about more dogs of sick owners getting sick too, since pets are not restricted from a human's self-isolation. There are already several diseases that can be passed from cat to human or vice versa and there are documented cases of cats getting the flu, especially during outbreaks of H1N1, from their owners.

 

[tomBitonti]

Tangent:

According to Jared Diamond (famous for Guns Germs and Steel) in The Day Before Yesterday, modern warfare has higher total-casualty figures but lower death-percentage rates. This is a function of both higher populations and densities, and of cultural features like the Rules of War.
So, it is forbidden to bomb cities (civilians), thereby protecting a high percentage of the population from harm. But once somebody starts doing it, hundreds of thousands or even millions of people are in the way to get hurt.

More On-Topic:
I would look at WWI statistics. Besides the 1918 influenza epidemic, the daily bloodletting of the trenches was enough to leave France, Britain, and Germany manpower-starved a generation later. That attrition rate spiked during events like the Battle of the Somme which cost Britain 100,000 casualties on the first day alone, or the months-long Battle of Verdun which cost France and Germany 1,000,000 casualties each.

I considered that, but stopped at 1918, since that was how far back you went in your post.

I was thinking more of civilian deaths from city bombings, e.g., when Tokyo was fire bombed. Also, factoring in the different total world population.

Very roughly, WWII averages out to about 32,000 persons/day, figuring 70,000,00 total persons over 6 years — from Wikipedia statistics.

The following is showing current (05-Apr-2020) deaths at 6k/day:

Coronavirus Death Toll and Trends - Worldometer

Updated total and statistics, graphs and charts tracking the total number of deaths, deaths per day, and death by country from the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

That seems to be doubling about every 7 days. (With very probably underreported numbers.). Unless the spread slows, that gets us to WWII numbers in about 2 1/2 weeks.



Be safe and be well.
Tom Bitonti

 

[Zardnaar]

Corona is vastly short of Spanish Flu/WW2 levels.

World population is a lot bigger as well.

Numbers might end up larger but proportionally multiply by about 3 or 3.5.