D&D and the rising pandemic

[Theo R Cwithin]

The trick with those predictions is that: "
COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"


Keep in mind that 18 states do not have stay at home orders and 19 states have not closed non-essential businesses.

The USA has constantly sent the message that this isn't a big deal and it will be over soon. Every 2 weeks they say it's going to be done in 2 weeks.

Yep. And IHME is always updating their models and inputs, so we'll see. Like I said: it'll be "interesting" to see the interplay of science and politics in this.

I just wish it wasn't so blasted disruptive. I'm beyond ready for it to be done.

 

[Azzy]

The trick with those predictions is that: "
COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"


Keep in mind that 18 states do not have stay at home orders and 19 states have not closed non-essential businesses.

And in states like FL, churches are exempt from closure. It's moronic.

 

[FrogReaver]

Corona is vastly short of Spanish Flu/WW2 levels.

World population is a lot bigger as well.

Numbers might end up larger but proportionally multiply by about 3 or 3.5.

how much of that difference is because of the measures that have adopted relatively early on?

 

[NotAYakk]

IHME at U.Washington has updated their projections. They have COVID-19 deaths in the US overall peaking on APR 16, and then falling to <1 per day by mid June, with a cumulative 82k deaths or so (with huge error bars, of course).

"We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete. "
Wtf. They shouldn't release a model with ridiculous assumptions, not without putting that in bold.

Our model suggests that, with social distancing, the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.

So they are assuming USA universally implements NZ-level 4 social distancing within a week and has complete adherence to the rules, and that if they do so, the epidemic could be extinguished via this method by June.

Basically they are publishing a best case model.

After that, they assume no reservoirs or reintroduction, or competent population testing and contact tracing to eliminate it.

Finally, note that the NYC (and Italy) numbers are way off on deaths:
They don't have the bandwidth to test people before they die. They don't have the bandwidth to test corpses. And they only count Covid-19 deaths when they get a test result before the person dies.

 

[FrogReaver]

The trick with those predictions is that: "
COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"


Keep in mind that 18 states do not have stay at home orders and 19 states have not closed non-essential businesses.

The USA has constantly sent the message that this isn't a big deal and it will be over soon. Every 2 weeks they say it's going to be done in 2 weeks.

closing non essential businesses is a joke. What has actually been closed - bars, movie theatres and restaurant lobbies? Nearly everything else is Still In business

 

[FrogReaver]

Any thoughts on how big of a vector crowded grocery stores and hardware stores have on this?

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

And in states like FL, churches are exempt from closure. It's moronic.

Especially in light of how many clusters around the world have been linked directly to worship services or ancillary gatherings centered around those houses of faith.

I’m a practicing Catholic, so I understand the struggle, but the only ones I sympathize for are those whose faiths demand a quorum of the faithful- a minyan of 10 people in orthodox jewish traditions- or who eschew electricity- the Amish, etc.

Even so, no matter who you worship, He/She/It probably doesn’t want you to die, especially endangering others in the process. Find another way. Don’t cluster up- go outside and shout the good word at each other from a distance.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Any thoughts on how big of a vector crowded grocery stores and hardware stores have on this?

I haven’t seen any speculation from the pros.

Still, people gotta eat. Hardware stores do have necessities for amateurs and professionals alike.

The good news- at least where I liveinna Dallas suburb- is that such stores are at least trying to reenforce social distancing orders, and some are introducing or expanding extant curbside service programs. And we haven’t had any pandemic-related breaches of the peace; no brawls over TP or the like.

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

Any thoughts on how big of a vector crowded grocery stores and hardware stores have on this?

It's only one data point but....
A few days ago, we finally saw the first case in my county. The next day, several more were identified.
All are grocery store workers.

 

[The Green Hermit]

Any thoughts on how big of a vector crowded grocery stores and hardware stores have on this?

Our local hardware store is only allowing a certain number of people in the store at a time. Many grocery stores are also doing this.