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D&D and the rising pandemic

GreyLord

Adventurer
We're seeing very low reports of deaths coming from the USA right now.

New cases every day dropped to 20k/day May 10th and have stayed there so new cases aren't really dropping.

Active cases have been steadily climbing. There were 900k active cases on May 1st and now there are 1.14 million.

And yet, death counts have been dropping rapidly. Today saw 500 deaths and yesterday was 600. That's only 2 days so I suppose we will see what tomorrow brings.

With the above numbers I would expect more deaths though.

Do you think with states like Florida controlling and manipulating the information they're giving out we're not seeing the full picture?

If New York is taken out of the data then the rate of infection is still continuing to climb throughout May. Yet, the death count is dropping.
I think Florida is controlling and in ways concealing information. I think there are other states that are doing this as well.

I find it a shame that they want things to be their way so badly that they would conceal data that could be used for science and medicine rather than actually admit what may be happening in their states and areas.
 

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Do you think with states like Florida controlling and manipulating the information they're giving out we're not seeing the full picture?
This is probably likely. Florida (and Georgia) could've just been stupid and got caught. Or, somehow people stopped dying as much for some reason, or are taking longer to die.
 

In the USA, we basically have 100,000 deaths as of today. Just 500 less than 100,000 and those numbers are probably higher because many dead people aren't tested.
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
And yet, death counts have been dropping rapidly. Today saw 500 deaths and yesterday was 600. That's only 2 days so I suppose we will see what tomorrow brings.

With the above numbers I would expect more deaths though.

Do you think with states like Florida controlling and manipulating the information they're giving out we're not seeing the full picture?
Though Theo already mentioned this... no, a dip for a couple days is not evidence of doctoring data. We must note that getting from the death itself, though a chain of reports, to a graph or data you see, is a chain of human activity. It has dips on weekends, and often spikes come Monday.

As an example, this is a graph of daily increase in cases in Massachusetts (from WBUR.org, a local NPR station).
1590461602073.png


It is... really spiky. You don't want to draw any conclusions from change over a day or two. You want to look at longer term trends to get an idea of what is happening overall. In this graph, you see daily variation, but also a long term rise, and then a gradual falling off in new cases.
 

ad_hoc

Hero
US always has deep dips in reported numbers on weekends. And today is Memorial Day, so this weekend was three days long. Tomorrow the numbers should hop back up again as reporting agencies return from vacation and play catch up on the stats.
Oh Memorial Day, that makes sense.
 

ad_hoc

Hero
Though Theo already mentioned this... no, a dip for a couple days is not evidence of doctoring data. We must note that getting from the death itself, though a chain of reports, to a graph or data you see, is a chain of human activity. It has dips on weekends, and often spikes come Monday.

As an example, this is a graph of daily increase in cases in Massachusetts (from WBUR.org, a local NPR station).
View attachment 122290

It is... really spiky. You don't want to draw any conclusions from change over a day or two. You want to look at longer term trends to get an idea of what is happening overall. In this graph, you see daily variation, but also a long term rise, and then a gradual falling off in new cases.
Yeah, I am used to seeing the spike on Monday which is why I found it odd.

A holiday in the US makes sense.

Still, deaths are trending down in general while cases are not.

I suppose we'll have to see what this week brings.
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Still, deaths are trending down in general while cases are not.
If you are talking nationwide? There are many possible explanations. Including: NYC, California, and Boston and other early areas of breakout are getting a handle on things, and their health care systems are no longer quite as overwhelmed, and care is such that folks aren't dying.

Meanwhile, in other areas, cases are starting to pick up... but people aren't dying... yet. People don't catch it and die on the same day. They can take days or weeks to get from reported case to death.

That's only a demonstrative example - I don't know what's actually happening.
 



Zardnaar

Legend
It's just the way pandemics work. Anyone vulnerable that gets it dies early

Eventually you start running out of vulnerable people so numbers fall. One way or another numbers going to eventually go down.

If they can keep it out of rest homes that's going to help.

NZ active cases down to 22, 0 new cases. Job losses kicking in now.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Somehow the new gamestore opened. Go and have a look tomorrow and support the local economy (beer, Theros, lunch).

Patriotic duty to spend.
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
It's just the way pandemics work. Anyone vulnerable that gets it dies early
It is a vast oversimplification. It isn't like the virus gets into a nation, and hits everywhere equally instantaneously, and all the vulnerable people die. There's some pretty complicated dynamics between the spread of disease through populations over time, and the death rate as it penetrates new areas, which gets more complicated by social distancing efforts and medical care of varying quality. End result is that you are very likely to see multiple peaks and valleys in the death rate that have little to do with particular vulnerability.
 
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ad_hoc

Hero
It is a vast oversimplification. It isn't like the virus gets into a nation, and hits everywhere equally instantaneously, and all the vulnerable people die. There's some pretty complicated dynamics between the spread of disease through populations over time, and the death rate as it penetrates new areas, which gets more complicated by social distancing efforts and medical care of varying quality. End result is that you are very likely to see multiple peaks and valleys in the death rate that have little to do with particular vulnerability.
Absolutely.

80% of the deaths in Canada have happened in long term care homes.

That is why Canada has such a high death rate compared to the number of confirmed cases.
 

That is why Canada has such a high death rate compared to the number of confirmed cases.
I posted this link about a month ago, but I think it bears repeating:


Unfortunately, I can't find any story with updated data, probably because the data doesn't exist yet. It can take months to get this compiled. Next year this time, we'll be able to compare expected death rate to actually death rate vs. COVID numbers. Until then, we're just guessing. And I have to say, the fact that we're still "guessing" about the numbers to this degree disgusts me.
 

ad_hoc

Hero
I posted this link about a month ago, but I think it bears repeating:


Unfortunately, I can't find any story with updated data, probably because the data doesn't exist yet. It can take months to get this compiled. Next year this time, we'll be able to compare expected death rate to actually death rate vs. COVID numbers. Until then, we're just guessing. And I have to say, the fact that we're still "guessing" about the numbers to this degree disgusts me.
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
And I have to say, the fact that we're still "guessing" about the numbers to this degree disgusts me.
So, haivng computers on all of our desks tends to make us think that getting data from point A to point B should be trivial. It isn't. Gathering data from thousands of disparate physical world sources, from people who are, in fact, generally busy with keeping people alive, is not a lickety-split instant task.

We live in a real world, with practical limitations.
 

So, haivng computers on all of our desks tends to make us think that getting data from point A to point B should be trivial. It isn't. Gathering data from thousands of disparate physical world sources, from people who are, in fact, generally busy with keeping people alive, is not a lickety-split instant task.

We live in a real world, with practical limitations.
I am 100% with you on the practical limitations; I understand that data doesn't come quick and isn't perfect.

The part that am bothered by is that it seems not everyone actually wants the data to exist. Florida, for instance, is using a different method to classify a death as being caused by COVID19 than the CDC's standard (and different from how they track deaths from the normal flu). In fact, FL is using a standard that basically guarantees their reported number will be lower. At that point, it's not a practical limitation, it's willfull misconduct.
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
As I noted.

There’s a real disconnect between some leaders and their basic human decency. There was a WH economic advisor being interviewed the other day who referred to workers as “human capital”. Classic dehumanization.
 

ad_hoc

Hero
Well it's Tuesday and we didn't see an increase in reports to make up for the (long) weekend.

Only 700 deaths in the USA were reported today.

Florida reported only 500 new cases and 7 deaths.

To put this into comparative context Florida and Texas both have roughly as many confirmed cases per capita that Canada has.

Florida has almost half as many recorded deaths per capita as Canada. Texas has less than 1/3 as many deaths per capita.

Canada's death count is higher than expected due to long term care deaths but that is still a huge discrepancy.
 


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