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D&D and the rising pandemic

Eltab

Hero
Considering Florida's demographics, you would kind of expect the death toll to be higher, no?
Florida is very proud that they made a point to keep Corona OUT of the nursing homes and retirement communities (like The Villages). So far, their efforts have been successful.
 

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ad_hoc

Hero
Florida is very proud that they made a point to keep Corona OUT of the nursing homes and retirement communities (like The Villages). So far, their efforts have been successful.


 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
And, we should remember that there's a lag between changes in behavior, and results. So, Memorial Day weekend? If there are results from that, we'll start seeing it in a week or two...
 

ad_hoc

Hero
And, we should remember that there's a lag between changes in behavior, and results. So, Memorial Day weekend? If there are results from that, we'll start seeing it in a week or two...

We are already almost a month out from when most states started reopening though right?

Ontario, Canada saw their peak of active cases near the end of April at 6000.

It trended down to around 3500 by mid-May.

Stage 1 of reopening when into effect on May 19th. Cases are now trending back up now at 4000 active cases.

I would think that rise in numbers would be from reopening as well as nicer weather and quarantine fatigue. Those numbers make sense to me.

The reported numbers in the USA don't while we are also seeing accounts/accusations of numbers being suppressed or just not counted.

If the USA really is doing well with reopening then that's great but that just doesn't seem likely to me.
 


Zardnaar

Legend
0 cases again today with 0 people in hospital.

Borders not exactly open but exemptions have been made. Hollywood seems interested.


Getting some pizzas delivered. From Sunday you can have groups of up to 100. Schools are open.

Campervan rental from $20 USD a day.
 
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Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
We are already almost a month out from when most states started reopening though right?

"Most states"? I haven't taken a survey. And "started reopening" means different things in different places. In Massachusetts, for example, we only started opening this week, and that does not include the city of Boston itself.

And, Memorial Day was just this weekend. Its effects, if any, have not been seen yet.
 

Eltab

Hero

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
The venom and toxicity dripping out of this Author's pen leads me to believe that he took "Favored Enemy: Republicans".

Dude. Look at the name of the website. You should not be surprised by their take on the matter. And yes, the world being what it is, one has to be wary of strongly partisan sources of information.

He doesn't explain what the authorities are doing...

This statement... is incorrect. He gives several examples of what authorities are doing, and at least generally gives sources. I quote from the article:

"A Tampa Bay Times report on April 11 showed that the Florida Department of Health’s count of COVID-19 deaths was inaccurate and missing 10 percent of those recorded by medical examiners. "

"The medical examiners list has now been withheld by state officials for nearly two weeks. "

"Dr. Stephen Nelson, the chairperson of Florida’s Medical Examiners Commission, told the Tampa Bay Times that state officials plan to remove causes of death and case descriptions. "

"In March, the Miami Herald reported that the medical examiner’s office in Miami-Dade County was asked to restrict access to its death records. "

Oh, and this article is dated May 1. To add to that - on May 18th, Florida fired the top data scientist tasked with tracking the epidemic for the state. She claims it is because she refused to cook the data, the governor says otherwise.


That Florida is not doing a good job of reporting on coronavirus in the state seems pretty clear, even if one source of that information is of questionable.

But, Florida is not the only state that may be engaged in some data manipulation.

 
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Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
That Florida is not doing a good job of reporting on coronavirus in the state seems pretty clear, even if one source of that information is of questionable.
Yep. There have been several links to reports regarding the suspect quality of Florida’s official Covid-19 reporting posted in this thread, including a few by me.
 

MoonSong

Rules-lawyering drama queen but not a munchkin
And, we should remember that there's a lag between changes in behavior, and results. So, Memorial Day weekend? If there are results from that, we'll start seeing it in a week or two...
Last weekend, we started having the aftermath of Mother's Day. Lot's of new patients, who got exposed on May 10th. Next week it'll be the result of people organizing "corona-parties", because of course they started doing them.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Six days in a row with no new cases. One death from preexisting case taking the total to 22. 12 more recovered active cases 8. Lady who died was 96, had technically recovered but it was decided Covid was a contributing factor.

Went shopping first time in months
Partly to check out new gamestore part lunch part curious.

Seemed more or less normal. Quite a few about. Social distancing rules though. Means the gamestore can't run D&D nights.

Announcement June 22 about going to level 1. With a probable 4 month delay between sessions and the loss of 1 maybe 2 players might start new campaign or play Star Wars D6 until I can recruit a new player.

Covids also interrupted D&D supplies. Store can't get that much early on. He wants to set up AL and get a D&D night up and running.

Random photo just because.

IMG_20200528_123326.jpg


Social distancing. Group of 3 is one bubble. Everyone else spaced out in a half circle.
 
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Hussar

Legend
Sigh. My ken has had about 30 new cases in the past week after a couple of weeks of zero cases. Bit scary to be honest considering the kids just went back to school.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Sigh. My ken has had about 30 new cases in the past week after a couple of weeks of zero cases. Bit scary to be honest considering the kids just went back to school.

Japan iirc? Lack of testing perhaps.

Broke my bubble tonight with the inlaws. Went out to local bar/restaurant.

IMG_20200528_183928.jpg


Kinda quiet but great night. Limited menu.
Went in early, $3 craft beers during happy hour

Dessert. Cookie with icecream.

IMG_20200528_185916.jpg


Staff got 80% of their wage subsidies from government during lockdown. Place filled up later in the night.

Cookie was amazing. Very got similar to a brownie. In April we lost 34000 jobs scaled up to America levels around 2 million.

Things been better but in the grand scheme of things can't complain. It's not normal but close enough.

Kind of the Sword of Damocles though. Will Covid come back, will the economy collapse?

Eat and drink now tomorrow might be terrible.
 
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Istbor

Dances with Gnolls
Lady who died was 96, had technically recovered but it was decided Covid was a contributing factor.

Oooo, that kind of reasonable talk over here in the US could get you classified as a fear-monger or sheep.

I just had to listen to a friend talking about how someone died in a car accident and had tested positive for COVID-19 so was marked as umong the virus' victims. So that is why the US is doing better than the media claims. All he got from me was a heavy sigh.
 

I just had to listen to a friend talking about how someone died in a car accident and had tested positive for COVID-19 so was marked as umong the virus' victims. So that is why the US is doing better than the media claims. All he got from me was a heavy sigh.

I want to live in the alternate reality where testing for COVID is so common for every dead (and live) body that cases like this are the biggest hurdle to accurate data.
 

NotAYakk

Legend
Well it's Tuesday and we didn't see an increase in reports to make up for the (long) weekend.

Only 700 deaths in the USA were reported today.

Florida reported only 500 new cases and 7 deaths.

To put this into comparative context Florida and Texas both have roughly as many confirmed cases per capita that Canada has.

Florida has almost half as many recorded deaths per capita as Canada. Texas has less than 1/3 as many deaths per capita.

Canada's death count is higher than expected due to long term care deaths but that is still a huge discrepancy.
Assuming you are only getting reliable tests from people who need hospital care, getting sick requires 2-14 days and getting sick enough to go to hospital often another few days. Then another few days for a test turnaround.

So an increase in exposure over May 22-25 wouldn't start showing up until early June.

This graph:



is amazingballs. It shows that Covid-19 in wastewater predict diagnosed Covid-19 cases by a week with an above 0.9 correlation.

That increase in C19 in wastewater means those people are infected and shedding virus. And it takes a week after they are shedding virus that some subset of them show up, get tested, and the test results come back.

How long it takes to go from initial C19 exposure to shedding C19 out your bum is another question, but it isn't going to be negative days. ;)

Suppose it takes about 2 days to go from C19 exposure to it coming out your bum. Then it will take 7 more days for you to be diagnosted. Thus a 9 day lag.

May 22-25 is May 31 to 34, aka May 31 to June 3rd.

And like most exponential functions, the cost of the new infections isn't just the new infections, but all of the people they'll infect.
 

MoonSong

Rules-lawyering drama queen but not a munchkin
Assuming you are only getting reliable tests from people who need hospital care, getting sick requires 2-14 days and getting sick enough to go to hospital often another few days. Then another few days for a test turnaround.

So an increase in exposure over May 22-25 wouldn't start showing up until early June.

This graph:



is amazingballs. It shows that Covid-19 in wastewater predict diagnosed Covid-19 cases by a week with an above 0.9 correlation.

That increase in C19 in wastewater means those people are infected and shedding virus. And it takes a week after they are shedding virus that some subset of them show up, get tested, and the test results come back.

How long it takes to go from initial C19 exposure to shedding C19 out your bum is another question, but it isn't going to be negative days. ;)

Suppose it takes about 2 days to go from C19 exposure to it coming out your bum. Then it will take 7 more days for you to be diagnosted. Thus a 9 day lag.

May 22-25 is May 31 to 34, aka May 31 to June 3rd.

And like most exponential functions, the cost of the new infections isn't just the new infections, but all of the people they'll infect.
Worse, the thing takes anything from 1 to 3 weeks to show symptoms. So it can take up to a month for a new contagion to be detected. And people are contagious while showing no symptoms.
 



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