D&D and the rising pandemic

[Enevhar Aldarion]

We don't know if the virus will mutate.

It will. But the evidence so far, and from what the top doctors are saying, is that it will be a much slower mutation rate than flu has. So that vaccine we may have by next Spring will be good for a couple of years versus the maybe one season for a flu vaccine.

We are also waiting for the antibody tests to be perfected so that we can start testing people who recovered to see if that made them immune to catching it again. Which would also mean we can use the plasma from those who recovered to treat people still ill with it.

 

[Umbran]

Let's start with the data from experience so far - those dreaded anecdotes - and distill them into actionable information.

Even anecdotes take time. Anecdotal evidence requires people ho have been exposed, tested positive, and exposed again to get it, or not.

If you want to base on a generalization - don't expect herd immunity to develop without a vaccine. We don't tend to develop long-term immunity against other coronaviruses - several of which cause common colds - so don't expect it here.

 

[Zardnaar]

They think a vaccine is a year away 1

It will. But the evidence so far, and from what the top doctors are saying, is that it will be a much slower mutation rate than flu has. So that vaccine we may have by next Spring will be good for a couple of years versus the maybe one season for a flu vaccine.

We are also waiting for the antibody tests to be perfected so that we can start testing people who recovered to see if that made them immune to catching it again. Which would also mean we can use the plasma from those who recovered to treat people still ill with it.

Yeah seems to be most like likely.

If herd immunity doesn't work and there's no vaccine we still have options, it's been done before but not since the 30s and 40s in a liberal democracy anyway.

Options are bad, worse, awful atm. Problem is we don't enough yet.

Our government's hoping we can wipe it out, even then the borders will still be closed.

They're looking at enforced quarentines for the trickle of people still arriving. Supermarkets have banned bring your own cloth bags and we banned plastic bags a while ago.

We can't keep that up for longer than 3 months it so, some form 6 months.

Lockdown ends in 2 weeks, I'm expecting them to extend it another 4 weeks.

Optimistic fools think it's business as usual in 2 weeks. School years probably done. Border will be closed until rest of the world sorts it out even if we wipe it out.

 

[Umbran]

It will. But the evidence so far, and from what the top doctors are saying, is that it will be a much slower mutation rate than flu has.

Let me fill in a picture here:

"Mutate" is perhaps not the word to be using here.

Influenza viruses typically have 8 different strands of genetic information. The most common way for an influenza virus to change is not by what we usually call "mutation". Instead, they trade among themselves - if you are infected with two different influenza strains at once, while they are reproducing in your body, they can trade strands. In construction of child viruses, one may pick up seven of its own strands, and one from the other strain in your body. Poof, you have a new influenza virus. This is why we get new strains virtually every year, and we need new vaccines every year.

Covid-19 is caused by a single-strand virus. It cannot trade genetic information in the same way. Coronaviruses change largly by point-transcription errors in copying their genetic material, a much less frequent process, so the virus produces markedly new strains much less frequently, and a vaccine may be effective for much longer.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Anyone surprised?

A 'Liberty' Rebellion in Idaho Threatens to Undermine Coronavirus Orders

SANDPOINT, Idaho -- Inside an old factory building north of Boise, a few dozen people gathered last week to hear from Ammon Bundy, the man who once led an armed takeover of an Oregon wildlife refuge.The meeting, which appeared to violate orders by Gov. Brad Little of Idaho to avoid group gatherings,

www.yahoo.com

 

[FrogReaver]

Anyone surprised?

A 'Liberty' Rebellion in Idaho Threatens to Undermine Coronavirus Orders

SANDPOINT, Idaho -- Inside an old factory building north of Boise, a few dozen people gathered last week to hear from Ammon Bundy, the man who once led an armed takeover of an Oregon wildlife refuge.The meeting, which appeared to violate orders by Gov. Brad Little of Idaho to avoid group gatherings,

www.yahoo.com

Its ironic that constitutional actions like theirs are the most likely thing to lead to actual martial law.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Re : mutation & herd immunity

We know at least 8 different strains of Covid-19 are involved in the current pandemic. So the virus IS mutating. However, the strains are very similar, and it doesn’t seem to have a high mutation rate. This makes researchers optimistic that IF a vaccine can be found, then it will be largely effective against all the known varieties.

Herd Immunity/resistance takes time and exposure, plus a bit of luck. You have to have enough people get exposed to the infectious agent- either by catching the disease or by vaccination- that the illness has fewer hosts in which it could survive and propagate. To reach that critical mass takes time.

The “luck“ is one part having enough people survive the infection to pass along what made them more resistant in the first place, and the other part being how effective our own antbodies and pharmaceuticals actually are against fighting it.

If the researchers I mentioned earlier are correct- that Covid-19 has been infecting humans months or years longer than we suspect- we might start seeing herd immunity put a speed bump in the contagion’s path sooner rather than later.

 

[Zardnaar]

World's watching.

Stuff

i.stuff.co.nz

It on the WP behind a paywall.

 

[NotAYakk]

A problem has developed in my prediction of US deaths from Covid-19.

NYC, where most US deaths are, is now unable to diagnose people reliably before they die, and isn't testing dead people.

Prior to this crisis, ~20 people died at home each day. Now ~200 people do earlier this week. Those excess deaths may be because people are not seeking medical attention, or may be Covid-19 deaths.

My apologies. I should have seen this coming; it happened in Italy as well.

 

[Zardnaar]

A problem has developed in my prediction of US deaths from Covid-19.

NYC, where most US deaths are, is now unable to diagnose people reliably before they die, and isn't testing dead people.

Prior to this crisis, ~20 people died at home each day. Now ~200 people do earlier this week. Those excess deaths may be because people are not seeking medical attention, or may be Covid-19 deaths.

My apologies. I should have seen this coming; it happened in Italy as well.

Count the bodies, compare pre Covid rate use the word estimated.