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D&D and the rising pandemic

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
A major difference is that our technology is so far advanced now that we have far more resources than they did at that time.
Well, even with those resources, we still have food security issues without a major economic dislocation, so I don't see as we can just say, "resources!" and expect the problem can't exist.

People are worried, for example, about how they're going to be able to afford their homes. Well, the homes are there.
Yes, folks are worried about being able to pay their rents and mortgages. In a recession or depression, that's an issue. What gets done about it is a political question, and beyond the scope of these boards.
 

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I think NYC is going to be bad.

US state covid.png

They just started social distancing a few days ago, and their Covid-19 death curve is doubling in less than 3 days. That is a lot of points, and it isn't as if you go "well, we just started noticing that Covid-19 was causing these deaths", so testing of deaths shouldn't get more reliable in that short of a window.

Deaths are a 20-ish day trailing indicator. If we give them 6 doublings from now before their social distancing kicks in, they hit 64 * 150 which is about 10,000 deaths ... assuming their hospitals can handle the surge in cases, which isn't likely.

Then social distancing slows the spread, but the death rate stays flatish, so 1000s per day.

Then 2x to 3x that due to lack of ICUs.

Graph source: Coronavirus Deaths by U.S. State and Country Over Time: Daily Tracking
 



Zardnaar

Legend
I think NYC is going to be bad.

View attachment 120174
They just started social distancing a few days ago, and their Covid-19 death curve is doubling in less than 3 days. That is a lot of points, and it isn't as if you go "well, we just started noticing that Covid-19 was causing these deaths", so testing of deaths shouldn't get more reliable in that short of a window.

Deaths are a 20-ish day trailing indicator. If we give them 6 doublings from now before their social distancing kicks in, they hit 64 * 150 which is about 10,000 deaths ... assuming their hospitals can handle the surge in cases, which isn't likely.

Then social distancing slows the spread, but the death rate stays flatish, so 1000s per day.

Then 2x to 3x that due to lack of ICUs.

Graph source: Coronavirus Deaths by U.S. State and Country Over Time: Daily Tracking
I read they're gonna run out if medical supplies in ten days. That was two days ago.

They need 60 000 ventilator FEMA gave them 400.

There's no more to be bought, there's a 6 week backlog and/or stuff is stuck in China.
And everyone wants that stuff now.


One could run some calculations but they don't have the data. No one has really had to do this since 1945 and Truman being president.

The calculation is how to kill the least amount of people.
 


Well, a bit of reading tells me that the Great Depression can be blamed for about 7 million deaths by starvation and malnutrition.
Umbran, would you, kindly, share your sources to support this figure?

No accredited paper, (I have seen), supports that figure. I’m not an expert, however.

I imagine, if there was credible evidence, Howard Zinn, would have had some mention of it, in one of the versions of a People’s History of the United States, for example.

I will, happily, update my view of history, if there is a factual basis for this statement.

Most people in the world, are not directly invested in Stock Markets, and only 55% of Americans are, based off a Gallup 2019 poll. Greater numbers of death and increased misery, for stock prices is not a trade, I am willing to make.

My 72 year old mother, has more inherent value in human terms, then the share price of Disney stocks.

If the Forgotten Realms’ god, Waukeen demanded that people work during a plague, guaranteeing, increased death and spread of the disease, while also mandating no change to the predominant economic mode; is that the actions of a ‘Good’ alignment?
 
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ad_hoc

Hero
One important piece of data that I think people are missing from looking at the USA's death count is the comparison to the number of recovered cases.

Deaths are low because the USA is behind many other countries.

There are currently 634 deaths but only 361 recoveries.

Compare that to Italy, the hardest hit country with 6 820 deaths and 8 326 recoveries.

Or perhaps Canada, a country demographically and geographically that has a lot in common with the USA with 25 deaths and 112 recoveries.

Germany is a big outlier here and an example of a country with great healthcare (perhaps the best in the world) with 33 000 cases, 156 deaths, and an amazing 3 133 recoveries.

The bad is just starting.

 
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Zardnaar

Legend
Umbran, would you, kindly, share your sources to support this figure?

No accredited paper, (I have seen), supports that figure. I’m not an expert, however.

I imagine, if there was credible evidence, Howard Zinn, would have had some mention of it, in one of the versions of a People’s History of the United States, for example.

I will, happily, update my view of history, if there is a factual basis for this statement.

Most people in the world, are not directly invested in Stock Markets, and only 55% of Americans are, based off a Gallup 2019 poll. Greater numbers of death and increased misery for stock prices is not a trade, I am willing to make.

My 72 year mother, has more inherent value in human terms, than the share price of Disney stocks.

If the Forgotten Realms’ god, Waukeen demanded that people work during a plague, guaranteeing, increased death and spread of the disease, while also mandating no change to the predominant economic mode; is that the actions of a ‘Good’ alignment?
Deaths from pandemic 1million
Deaths from economic disruption 2 million

Pick one.

Reality is gonna puncture a few ideologies. Your options are bad, worse and awful pick one. It's not going to be obvious what option is bad, worse and awful either.

The war years was the last time decisions like this were made.

For example war years. Defeating Nazis and Japan ASAP good yes? Vital supplies disrupted normal cargo and people in places like Persia and Bengal went hungary.

IDK what your media is telling you overseas our PM invoked the war years, point blank said it's gonna be rough and had a picture of our PM from the great depression and start of WW2 over her shoulder.

We're basically on wartime footing here, supermarkets started rationing stuff here last week.
 

Deaths from economic disruption 2 million
Going back to work is not going to stop economic disruption. Restaurant wholesellers in California, are converting to markets, as the demand by restaurants is decreasing due to closures, but people need to eat, and the produce is going to spoil.

Direct Payments to residents, debt forgiveness, etc, etc are all viable options in an economy like the United States. Free vegetables is viable in California, the Los Angeles Unified School district is currently running the largest foodbank in the United States.

What is lacking is political will and imagination. If we are not willing to try new models, then failure is guaranteed. Someone on Easter Island, had to chop down the last large tree. Somehow, people ignored that the trees were diminishing.

Doing the same old, same old is insane.
 


Zardnaar

Legend
Going back to work is not going to stop economic disruption. Restaurant wholesellers in California, are converting to markets, as the demand by restaurants is decreasing due to closures, but people need to eat, and the produce is going to spoil.

Direct Payments to residents, debt forgiveness, etc, etc are all viable options in an economy like the United States. Free vegetables is viable in California, the Los Angeles Unified School district is currently running the largest foodbank in the United States.

What is lacking is political will and imagination. If we are not willing to try new models, then failure is guaranteed. Someone on Easter Island, had to chop down the last large tree. Somehow, people ignored that the trees were diminishing.

Doing the same old, same old is insane.
Not disagreeing. When I was at University I read a lot on the wartime economies of various nation's.

Had this conversation about a week ago on a different forum.

What needs to be done and what will be done are two different things.

I had the talk with my wife in the weekend, almost made her cry. As late as Friday she thought family lunch was gonna be a thing. She thought I was crazy two weeks ago when I started stocking up before the panic buying really took off.
 



Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
Deaths from pandemic 1million
Deaths from economic disruption 2 million

Pick one.
Option 1 is probably much worse than you posit. Last week, I read one official believed this outbreak of Covid-19 would ultimately infect 1/4 of the world’s population. If the estimated 1% death rate proves accurate, that’s something like 25M deaths.
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Umbran, would you, kindly, share your sources to support this figure?

No accredited paper, (I have seen), supports that figure. I’m not an expert, however.
I don't have a peer reviewed paper (the term "accredited" paper is not one I'm familiar with). Sorry. It was a figure I came upon some years ago while researching something else. I intended it here to simply note that you'd need Great Depression levels of economic dislocation for us to be concerned about it matching the potential disease deaths (which are also just an estimate anyway).

I'm happy to note that it isn't a solid number, and leave it at that.
 

ad_hoc

Hero
Option 1 is probably much worse than you posit. Last week, I read one official believed this outbreak of Covid-19 would ultimately infect 1/4 of the world’s population. If the estimated 1% death rate proves accurate, that’s something like 25M deaths.
The figure that I've heard is up to 70%.

The plan is to have that happen over a long enough period to keep the death rate down.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Option 1 is probably much worse than you posit. Last week, I read one official believed this outbreak of Covid-19 would ultimately infect 1/4 of the world’s population. If the estimated 1% death rate proves accurate, that’s something like 25M deaths.
Can't do much about the world just what country you live in can do.

In Spain and Italy they had to make decisions on who gets respirators. That reality hasn't hit the USA yet.

Army has found rest homes where caregivers fled. Full of dead and dying old people no caregivers.

Minimum wage job or close to it with no safety equipment what would you do? How do you judge that.

Even if they stayed what can they do except expose themselves.

That's what I mean here's your options bad, worse, awful. Pick one.

That's the reality we're facing. Our great grandparents had to do it so do we.
 
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Oofta

Title? I don't need no stinkin' title.
Oofta I wasn't joking if my wife or myself get sick going into the quarantine room. Basically you have to sweat it out and hope for the best and ring ambulance if you have trouble breathing.
Nah, I get it. We already have a spare bedroom and bathroom in the basement. We've already decided that when I go back to the office (she always works from home) that's where I'll be sleeping. Or if either one of us gets sick.
 

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