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D&D and the rising pandemic

Aebir-Toril

Creator of the Elfgrinder Mech
The main problem facing hospitals and medical professionals at the moment is a lack of ICU beds, Mechanical Ventilators, and N95-grade respirators. My family is donating a backlog of N95 respirators which we own to a local hospital in the United States.

The best thing you could do now is come up with a way to replace the regulator system in the mechanical ventilator with something more easily manufactured. I would posit a few motors and valves controlled by a lightweight Raspberry Pi controller, but medical professionals would know far more than I do about how a mechanical ventilator's regulator unit functions.
 

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Zardnaar

Legend
Nah, I get it. We already have a spare bedroom and bathroom in the basement. We've already decided that when I go back to the office (she always works from home) that's where I'll be sleeping. Or if either one of us gets sick.
You're about the third to make that joke or something similar in the last day or so.

I remember back in 1999/2000 people would ASL you. Male, 22, NZ any that were F, 20,USA were a bit suspicious type.

Few years ago they started asking about NZ or if you're married as happened last year.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
I think my job location is doomed. There is a 19yo female cook here who missed most of a week being sick. She is back at work today because the doctor did not think she had the virus because her fever was not high enough. So she was not isolated for the normal 14 days.
They made it simple here. All takeaways and restaurants closed. In 10 hours we're in level 4 lockdown. Big box stores also closing.

Big box hardware stores can supply trades but not normal retail.
 

seebs

Adventurer
I think a lot of people miss the subtle point that the people who die never come back to work, necromancy not being reliably available to us.

Epidemiologists aren't idiots. They're aware that lockdowns are expensive, but they're also the only chance you get to slow things down enough to either actually get the thing contained, or get some time to build the medical machinery you need, or whatever else comes along.
 



Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Side note: the "7M" number for the Great Depression seems to come from Pravda, so I'd take it with a salt lake.
Great. Well, toss that number out, then. Not worth the electrons it is written with.

Edit: I feel this bears mentioning - changing your mind when shown your data isn't good is absolutely necessary in times like these.
 
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Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Last week, I read one official believed this outbreak of Covid-19 would ultimately infect 1/4 of the world’s population. If the estimated 1% death rate proves accurate, that’s something like 25M deaths.
Be careful - one of you may be talking deaths in the USA, and the other worldwide.

Okay, so let us talk about models for a moment.

Like opinions, everyone has one. And they don't all agree. They aren't even very close to agreeing. Even for a given model, the admitted breadth between the best and worst cases is very large. Which amounts to saying, nobody actually knows. The only consensus available is... it is bad, and needs some pretty drastic action to reduce the consequences.

 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
Be careful - one of you may be talking deaths in the USA, and the other worldwide.

Okay, so let us talk about models for a moment.

Like opinions, everyone has one. And they don't all agree. They aren't even very close to agreeing. Even for a given model, the admitted breadth between the best and worst cases is very large. Which amounts to saying, nobody actually knows. The only consensus available is... it is bad, and needs some pretty drastic action to reduce the consequences.

A UK expert- commenting on the story that DC might be contemplating relaxing the current strictures to boost the economy- cautioned that the USA alone could see as many as 2.2M deaths from Covid-19.

Another recent article talked about a US MD who treated Ebola...and then contracted it. He, too, is stunned at how bad things are.

So yeah, numbers are all over the place, but most of the actual experts think this is a bad one. Very bad.
 

Horwath

Adventurer
The figure that I've heard is up to 70%.

The plan is to have that happen over a long enough period to keep the death rate down.
That was Merkel's statement for German population.

But, you are right. Plan is to slow the rate of infection so health system is not overwhelmed with critical patients.

And if there is no vaccine in sight, only way to battle it, would be to gain herd immunity and hope that virus does not mutate too much for built up immunity.
 

Mistwell

Legend
I've converted my company, which normally makes judicial gowns and graduation caps and gowns and such, over to making washable, reusable masks.

They're not as good as N95 masks, but a lot of hospitals are using these kinds of masks over an N95 mask, then washing our mask daily, to preserve the N95 for additional uses. And ours are pretty good for an ordinary consumer going shopping, or person still working at a place like a grocery store.

[If anyone wants to buy one, shoot me a PM and I will send you a link.]
 

Zardnaar

Legend
I've converted my company, which normally makes judicial gowns and graduation caps and gowns and such, over to making washable, reusable masks.

They're not as good as N95 masks, but a lot of hospitals are using these kinds of masks over an N95 mask, then washing our mask daily, to preserve the N95 for additional uses. And ours are pretty good for an ordinary consumer going shopping, or person still working at a place like a grocery store.

[If anyone wants to buy one, shoot me a PM and I will send you a link.]
Some fashion firms here are doing the same thing using whatever they have.

Some are going to be made out of silk and merrino wool.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
That was Merkel's statement for German population.

But, you are right. Plan is to slow the rate of infection so health system is not overwhelmed with critical patients.

And if there is no vaccine in sight, only way to battle it, would be to gain herd immunity and hope that virus does not mutate too much for built up immunity.
I got yelled at about a week ago when I said there's another way.

Outbreed it. We don't know what the long term effects will be but might have to deal with it 1920s style.

As I said hard core ideology types on both sides might get their worldview kicked in.

We don't know the long term effects yet so who knows.

In my harbor we have Quarantine Island. Our great grand parents dealt with it so will we.

We might not like the results. Might not have a choice.
 


They made it simple here. All takeaways and restaurants closed. In 10 hours we're in level 4 lockdown. Big box stores also closing.

Big box hardware stores can supply trades but not normal retail.
Here in the US, a lot of people below the poverty line, or a little above, but still lower class or lower-middle class, rarely have even a week's worth of groceries in their homes. But why bother with that when grocery stores are open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and there are restaurants everywhere. It is because of this that restaurants that can survive on take-out and delivery, and grocery and convenience stores, are considered essential businesses, and allowed to stay open in all but the most strict situations.

Gas stations (with or without an attached convenience store), hardware stores and auto parts stores are the same and stay open to the public.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Sometimes, life doesn’t give you any good choices, just various more/less bad ones.
Yup bad, worse awful. Pick one.

Crazy panic buying apparently today with 4 week lock down.

People stocked up for 14 days of self isolation. Not 4 weeks. Supermarkets are open but what happens if staff don't turn up or get sick?

Quietly stocked up over the last 3 weeks, had to pressure the wife into it.

"I've ordered more" didn't comprehend the difference between ordering and receiving. Now we're in lockdown probably can't get that order.

Didn't get as much as I wanted, overlooked some things but avoided the worst of the panic buying.

You're all doom and gloom. Response we'll be in lockdown by the end of the week. Won't be surprised if it's the middle.

Today's Wednesday.
 
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Coroc

Hero
I got yelled at about a week ago when I said there's another way.

Outbreed it. We don't know what the long term effects will be but might have to deal with it 1920s style.

As I said hard core ideology types on both sides might get their worldview kicked in.

We don't know the long term effects yet so who knows.

In my harbor we have Quarantine Island. Our great grand parents dealt with it so will we.

We might not like the results. Might not have a choice.
It is better to combat it any way you can. It might leave scarred lung tissue and it also can afflict younger people. But my worry is how long any sort of quarantine could go on. One or two years is the wrong answer here, it is more like one or two month at best for most areas in the world.

Prob. is, every severe case needs a ICU bed evtly with artificial respiration. That is one bed not available for some ordinary woes like a appendix infection or some injured car crash victim.

That is the delimiter. So everyone arguing to insulate the risk patients and/or to let it run wild is batshit crazy and has not thought this through in all consequences.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
It is better to combat it any way you can. It might leave scarred lung tissue and it also can afflict younger people. But my worry is how long any sort of quarantine could go on. One or two years is the wrong answer here, it is more like one or two month at best for most areas in the world.

Prob. is, every severe case needs a ICU bed evtly with artificial respiration. That is one bed not available for some ordinary woes like a appendix infection or some injured car crash victim.

That is the delimiter. So everyone arguing to insulate the risk patients and/or to let it run wild is batshit crazy and has not thought this through in all consequences.
They made those decisions in Italy and Spain. We've had 0 deaths, 6 in ICU, 0 on ventilator.

200 cases we might make it reasonably alright.
 

ad_hoc

Hero
It is better to combat it any way you can. It might leave scarred lung tissue and it also can afflict younger people. But my worry is how long any sort of quarantine could go on. One or two years is the wrong answer here, it is more like one or two month at best for most areas in the world.

Prob. is, every severe case needs a ICU bed evtly with artificial respiration. That is one bed not available for some ordinary woes like a appendix infection or some injured car crash victim.

That is the delimiter. So everyone arguing to insulate the risk patients and/or to let it run wild is batshit crazy and has not thought this through in all consequences.
Depends on what you mean by 'quarantine'.

In Canada if you are a recent traveler or suspect you have had close contact with someone who might have it then you are to go into 14 day isolation. That means not leaving your house for anything, even groceries.

Everyone in the country is expected to practice social distancing. That means only leaving the house for essential tasks like grocery shopping or to get some walking exercise. Groups no larger than 2 people.

The federal health minister has stated that social distancing will probably be in effect for months. I commented to my doctor today (via telephone) about being in for 3-4 months and she said to expect longer.
 

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