D&D and the rising pandemic

[Zardnaar]

My gaming group met on Saturday as usual. The only precautions we took were using hand sanitizer on the way in and preparing food instead of ordering out.

You have hand sanitizer for D&D wow.......

 

[Maxperson]

You may be missing an element of the statistics at this point.

At the moment, Boston has a ban on gatherings of people larger than 250. At that size, the chances that someone at the gathering has the illness becomes uncomfortably high. In gatherings of a dozen or less, the chances that someone has the illness in most areas of the USA is very small.

If you go to a busy, crowded bar or restaurant, you get exposed to everybody there. If you merely order food, you are effectively exposed to only the kitchen staff. My local pizza place has five people behind the counter? The chances that any of them are sick is currently minuscule.

The thing is, if someone at a fast food place IS sick with it, they are also involved in handling and preparing the food, not just in serving you. They can infect hundreds a day. At a finer place, it's less likely unless it's one of the chefs.

 

[The Green Hermit]

Two states already have closed down all restaurants and bars. France made the call yesterday.

 

[Acolyte of Zothique]

Do you know what the guidance is in Charleston relating to how to properly execute social distancing? They say to follow the CDC guidelines, and those guidelines do not call for an end to brunch.

Charleston, SC

Frequently Asked Questions About the Coronavirus in Charleston

www.charleston-sc.gov

Okay, I think I get it. Anything else we need to know?
Two things, for now.

First, make sure you’re following reliable sources for news about this virus. Here locally, that typically means sources like the Post and Courier, Charleston City Paper, and Channels 5, 4, 2 and 24 among others. Social media is also a powerful tool at times like these, but, as always, it’s wise consider the source.

Secondly, the best advice for individuals currently is to follow CDC guidelines. If you’re elderly or ill, avoid crowds. If you feel sick, do not go to work, and call your doctor to let them know your symptoms. Calling ahead will help your provider’s office take steps to keep other people from getting infected or exposed. And because the disease is spread so easily through direct contact, wash your hands and use hand sanitizer frequently.

Specifically, the CDC recommends the following:

• Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.
• Stay home when you are sick.
• Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
• Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe.
• Follow CDC’s recommendations for using a facemask.
  • CDC does not recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory diseases, including COVID-19.
  • Facemasks should be used by people who show symptoms of COVID-19 to help prevent the spread of the disease to others. The use of facemasks is also crucial for health workers and people who are taking care of someone in close settings (at home or in a health care facility).
• Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing.
  • If soap and water are not readily available, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol. Always wash hands with soap and water if hands are visibly dirty.

If you shut yourself in, stop frequenting business, etc... while healthy, you're doing a lot of harm by taking away business that is supporting the local economy. If we all lock ourselves away for 2 weeks, families will go bankrupt, businesses will close, people will lose jobs, people will lose insurance, etc...

Look at the current guidance. Follow it. The guidance does not say to avoid brunch if you're healthy and not at high risk. It says wash up, keep your hands away from your mouth (use utensils), and keep the sneezes covered and dispose of the kleenex. Then disinfect.

The only proven way to reduce infection rates - until there's a vaccine - is by social distancing/quarantine. Avoid close personal contact with other people. Indeed, if you are elderly or have underlying health conditions (there are quite a lot) that make you vulnerable to severe disease, then just avoid other people. Become a-social. Businesses will take a hit, economies around the world will go into recession. Only sociopaths would argue that protecting business has a higher priority than saving lives.

 

[robus]

I don't know what you are, but I know what you are not. You're not the CDC - which stands for the Center for Disease Control. They're the people that you just laughed at. You just laughed at the CDC about their virus guidance.

Well they just shut down all the schools in the state, so perhaps the CDC is a little behind the curve so to speak.

 

[Umbran]

The thing is, if someone at a fast food place IS sick with it, they are also involved in handling and preparing the food, not just in serving you.

I was not differentiating between cooks and wait staff. All I'm concerned with is the number of people involved in getting you food.

They can infect hundreds a day.

I am talking about your personal risk in ordering from the restaurant. How many other people order from the restaurant does not, to first approximation, increase your own risk. You seem to be talking about the risk to the community from having restaurants open at all.

 

[NotAYakk]

You may be missing an element of the statistics at this point.

At the moment, Boston has a ban on gatherings of people larger than 250. At that size, the chances that someone at the gathering has the illness becomes uncomfortably high. In gatherings of a dozen or less, the chances that someone has the illness in most areas of the USA is very small.

If you go to a busy, crowded bar or restaurant, you get exposed to everybody there. If you merely order food, you are effectively exposed to only the kitchen staff. My local pizza place has five people behind the counter? The chances that any of them are sick is currently minuscule.

The point of social distancing is not to save you. We don't really care if you get sick.

The point is to drop R0.

And you getting sick boosts R0.

Suppose there are 1000 people currently infected. There is a background R0 (spreading rate per infected person) of 0.5 with social distancing; so, after ~4 days, another 500 people are going to be infected.

That sucks, but an R0 of 0.5 is a winning situation. Because those 500 only infect 250, which only infect 125, which only infect 62, which only infect 31, which only infect 15, which only infect 7, which only infect 3, , which only infect 2, which only infects 1, who is tracked down before they infect someone else.

Now, suppose the area has a population of 10 million. Remember, only 1000 infected and untracked.

Now suppose you do some action that has a 0.005% chance of getting you infected each day. 1 in 20,000! How very unlikely! Somethimg like: 5 people touch the food, and odds any one person is infected is 1 in 10000. And even if they are infected, only a 1/10 chance they'll pass it to you! So 0.005% chance of getting infected!

But so do the other 10 million people.

0.00005 * 10,000,000 is 500. Over 2 days this comes to 1000 more people infected.

500+1000 means that the current 1000 people infect 1500. An R0 of 1.5.

Those 1500 infect 2250, who infect 3400, who infect 5000, who infect 7500, who infect 11,000, who infect 17000, etc.

This doesn't look as great as the first situation does it?

The action you did -- reduce distancing on 5 people when 0.01% of the population is infected -- can boost R0 significantly if done widely.

This thing can take up to 2 weeks to develop. If we keep distance for 2 weeks and make R0 low, the disease will starve, and collapse. If people did perfect isolation for 2 weeks, and then afterwards only went out if they where well and had no exposure to someone sick, we'd reduce covid19 down to trace numbers.

If we drop R0 to 0.5 and hold it for a month, and start testing everyone with flu symptoms towards the end of the period, we can do something similar.

If R0 remains over 1.0 with current measures, then there isn't a way to choke off the virus without a huge testing response (basically, new measures to lower R0).

 

[Celebrim]

So...not much D&D left in this "D&D And The Rising Pandemic" thread, is there?

No, but as a request to the EnWorld staff, I would love to see them focus the next week or two on how to play games on line for those of us that never thought we'd ever do that.

 

[robus]

No, but as a request to the EnWorld staff, I would love to see them focus the next week or two on how to play games on line for those of us that never thought we'd ever do that.

I went to Roll20 earlier today to investigate that option and they were reporting bandwidth issues, so I guess a lot of people are switching to remote play.

 

[Umbran]

Well they just shut down all the schools in the state, so perhaps the CDC is a little behind the curve so to speak.

The issue of school closings is complicated by a great many factors that are outside the CDC's purview. For example, does taking a kid out of school, and putting them in the hands of some hastily found, possibly less than qualified day care actually reduce risks? Does leaving a kid with food insecurity because Mom or Dad now has to stay home from work reducing risks?

Those decisions are likely best handled on the local level most of the time, based on local risk.