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D&D and the rising pandemic

NotAYakk

Legend
Umm, they just hit 1000 deaths in the US. Total. Not 300 a day. Let's not get too hysterical shall we? And, again, even if it was 300, this is a country of 300 million people. More than 300 people a day die in all sorts of ways.

Again, a bit of perspective and calm is far more helpful than panic.

None of those other ways of dieing double every 3 days and have for months.

Please stop saying "don't panic" when you don't take into account growth rates and talk about the start of an exponential curve. If you don't pay attention to growth rates, yes, it looks like there is nothing to worry about.

But when something gets 2x as big every 3 days or 10x every 10 days without massive intervention, and half of the country isn't doing that intervention, then 1000 becomes 10,000 becomes 100,000 becomes 1 million in the blink of an eye.

Then you add in that the interventions have a 2-3 week delay in stopping that growth in deaths, and if you aren't panicing, you aren't paying attention.

Spain and France are in deep trouble. Saying you are better off than Spain and France isn't saying much. UK almost decided to go "let it burn", and has only recently changed course.

Of all of those places, only USA is convex up on the deaths curve on a logarithmic graph. You don't want to be convex up on a logarithmic graph.

Basically, WA managed the epidemic by going into lockdown early enough, and got an early spike of 20 cases in a single health care facility as its "4th death". This gave it a much slower curve, as it started lockdown earlier in the epidemic

Now NYC is taking off, and it has less than a week of social distancing. Its local epidemic deaths are exploding at +33% per day, or 2x faster than every 3 days.

Basically, the growth factor of the US epidemic switched from 2x every 10 days to 2x every 3 days as WA's epidemic was overtaken by NY's epidemic.

Other state epidemics are growing like NYC not WA.

The problem with the epidemic isn't panic it is lack of panic.
 

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ad_hoc

Hero
The USA is now the country with the highest number of confirmed cases in the world at 82 000.

Their numbers continue to climb.


By state:

 

FrogReaver

As long as i get to be the frog
In potentially good news. It took 3 days to double the number of cases in the U.S. (a first since reaching high numbers)

Of course at some point our testing will hit capacity and at that point the number of cases will appear to only be growing linearly (manufacturing tests is essentially constant - testing 100,000 people a day will show linear growth to overall number of people tested). I would bet we will reach that point soon. So really it's the death curve that's going to be important to watch in the upcoming weeks.
 

Sacrosanct

Legend
The USA is now the country with the highest number of confirmed cases in the world at 82 000.

Their numbers continue to climb.


By state:



I'd suggest looking at the logarithmic scale as opposed to the linear one. The logarithmic scale shows you if we're still in exponential growth, which is the biggest indicator of how tough it will look in the future. Once that starts to flatten, then we know we're near peak.
 


ad_hoc

Hero
I'd suggest looking at the logarithmic scale as opposed to the linear one. The logarithmic scale shows you if we're still in exponential growth, which is the biggest indicator of how tough it will look in the future. Once that starts to flatten, then we know we're near peak.

One tough thing about looking at a scale like that is that it is confined by the amount of testing that can be done.

I've read that the USA is currently at 70 000 tests per day and are looking to increase that to 100 000.

Of course the rate of positives can continue to climb within that.

If you take a look at the numbers by states, there are quite a few which are starting to explode. 5-10 states on that list have doubled in the last 2 days from 1000 cases to 2000.

New Jersey has gained 2500 cases today alone.
 

ad_hoc

Hero
Here are some logarithmic charts.

USACovidLog.jpg


USACovidLog2.jpg
 

NotAYakk

Legend
Based off ad_hoc's graphs above:

8 days for 10x increase in number of confirmed cases.

8 days for a 10x increase in the number of deaths (last 8 days).

This indicates to me that it is very plausible that the "testing coverage" in the USA isn't getting better/worse.

There are 100 positive deaths for every death. If a death takes an average of 20 days since infection, and every 8 days the epidemic is getting 10x larger, in those 20 days the epidemic has gotten 316x larger, unless social distancing has kicked in. If we assume social distancing has lowered the spread to 2x every 8 days in the last 8 days, the epidemic has instead gotten 10^1.5 * 2 or 63 time bigger. So in the next 20 days, you can expect 6,300 deaths. If it didn't, you can instead expect 31,600 deaths.

6300 deaths is at the edge of the entire country's medical capabilities, because for every dead person in a high quality hospital, you have 5-15 people in the ICU. And 30,000 to 90,000 ICUs will take every ICU not in use in the USA.

If almost all of your confirmed cases are people arriving with serious issues in hospital, and that happens ~8 days after infection, then since they got infected the epidemic has gotten 10x larger.

When the 80,000 people who are diagnosed got infected, back on March 18, there are now about 800,000 people who are going to get sick enough to need hospital care. This will respond quicker to isolation, however.

If we map back 1.5 more weeks (12 days) we get to 2,500 people on or before March 4th who got sick and will eventually need serious hospital care. About 5x the dead, which is not that inconsistent with other countries.

Based on 1918, this will hit big cities first, then burn through the countryside.
 
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Umm, they just hit 1000 deaths in the US. Total. Not 300 a day. Let's not get too hysterical shall we? And, again, even if it was 300, this is a country of 300 million people. More than 300 people a day die in all sorts of ways.

Again, a bit of perspective and calm is far more helpful than panic.


And it's even lower, because we don't test as many people. We are only seeing the rate of those that are hospitalized.
 

FrogReaver

As long as i get to be the frog
So... no, we would not cancel our sessions.

This pandemic is a lot of media hype. I am not saying it isn't there or real, and I feel horrible for the regions affected, but media feeds into the fears of the people. I do a lot in the stock markets, and this is the kind of stuff that drives me crazy! People are stockpiling supplies like it is the end of the world.

If the news was broadcast in grayscale and not color, people wouldn't be nearly as freaked out. Consider this revised map:


No reaction, right? Could mean anything.

Now, look at site like Wikipedia even, notice how the map is just shades of red?


Our reaction is something scary is going on. According to this map, it looks like all 1 billion plus people in China are already gone!

And that causes fear and panic instead of rational reactions.

Certainly in areas where the virus is present, people need to be cautious, but media pushes it overboard in my estimation.

So, we will continue to meet to play D&D. :)

curious if this is still your opinion?
 

seebs

Adventurer
I really worry for the people whose local leaders or the people they look up to told them this was No Big Deal, and now they're finding out that maybe that wasn't totally accurate. One guy who was saying it was all media hype is now dead from it, which has got to be a source of concern for all the people who took his advice.
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
...and there are STILL people who do not grasp what’s going on.

I’ve seen a couple interviews in which so much ignorance was on display that- even though I don’t want to wish misfortune on anyone- that part of my brain starts paraphrasing Betty White’s line from Lake Placid, “Personally, I’m rooting for the virus!”

The position espoused that really triggers that evil thought is that, because nobody in their personal circle is suffering, then Covid-19 is a hoax or being overblown by the media. Some of them add a political spin to it, some of them are ageist, some are xenophobic.

Really puts the “ass” in ”astounding”.
 
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Horwath

Hero
None of those other ways of dieing double every 3 days and have for months.

Please stop saying "don't panic" when you don't take into account growth rates and talk about the start of an exponential curve. If you don't pay attention to growth rates, yes, it looks like there is nothing to worry about.

But when something gets 2x as big every 3 days or 10x every 10 days without massive intervention, and half of the country isn't doing that intervention, then 1000 becomes 10,000 becomes 100,000 becomes 1 million in the blink of an eye.

Then you add in that the interventions have a 2-3 week delay in stopping that growth in deaths, and if you aren't panicing, you aren't paying attention.

Spain and France are in deep trouble. Saying you are better off than Spain and France isn't saying much. UK almost decided to go "let it burn", and has only recently changed course.

Of all of those places, only USA is convex up on the deaths curve on a logarithmic graph. You don't want to be convex up on a logarithmic graph.

Basically, WA managed the epidemic by going into lockdown early enough, and got an early spike of 20 cases in a single health care facility as its "4th death". This gave it a much slower curve, as it started lockdown earlier in the epidemic

Now NYC is taking off, and it has less than a week of social distancing. Its local epidemic deaths are exploding at +33% per day, or 2x faster than every 3 days.

Basically, the growth factor of the US epidemic switched from 2x every 10 days to 2x every 3 days as WA's epidemic was overtaken by NY's epidemic.

Other state epidemics are growing like NYC not WA.

The problem with the epidemic isn't panic it is lack of panic.

Panic is NEVER good.

People should be aware and take precaution, but never panic.

It leads to shortages as people buy 3842 rolls of toilet paper, there are shortages of masks.

And not to mention that panic shopping leads to literal fistfight over packs of toilet paper and Nutella.

How did French get that much infected? Look at a vidoe of people raiding a palette of Nutella lik a school of piranhas.

How to avoid contagion? Obvious by getting lots of peoples saliva/blood on your fist/face.
/facepalm.

If you have to work with people, buy a mask(if you can find any...), don't do handshakes in this period, try to buy with cards(PIN-less if you can), and wash your hands and face.

This virus is highly contagious and probably we will all get it.
But, we need to slow down the speed of contagion so medical system is not broken with people that need critical care of it.

And hopefully we will get a vaccine before most of us has to go through the "Darwin gauntlet".
 

FrogReaver

As long as i get to be the frog
Panic is NEVER good.

People should be aware and take precaution, but never panic.

It leads to shortages as people buy 3842 rolls of toilet paper, there are shortages of masks.

And not to mention that panic shopping leads to literal fistfight over packs of toilet paper and Nutella.

How did French get that much infected? Look at a vidoe of people raiding a palette of Nutella lik a school of piranhas.

How to avoid contagion? Obvious by getting lots of peoples saliva/blood on your fist/face.
/facepalm.

If you have to work with people, buy a mask(if you can find any...), don't do handshakes in this period, try to buy with cards(PIN-less if you can), and wash your hands and face.

This virus is highly contagious and probably we will all get it.
But, we need to slow down the speed of contagion so medical system is not broken with people that need critical care of it.

And hopefully we will get a vaccine before most of us has to go through the "Darwin gauntlet".

I'm afraid in U.S. the medical system is already broken and we just haven't realized it yet. 2-3 weeks away from peak (best case) and we already have 80000 cases with 1300 dead.
 


FrogReaver

As long as i get to be the frog
We are on pace to be at 1.2 million cases within at least 12 days, maybe 8 days. (I don't think we can test that many).

In 2-3 weeks we are on pace for 10 million cases. Assuming the 3% mortality rate estimate - that's 300,000 dead.
 

We are on pace to be at 1.2 million cases within at least 12 days, maybe 8 days. (I don't think we can test that many).

In 2-3 weeks we are on pace for 10 million cases. Assuming the 3% mortality rate estimate - that's 300,000 dead.

Plus all the people who will get it, or who have already had it, and will never know, or think it was something else and get better. So more like 30-40 million cases and the death rate will end up under 1% of total cases, which is still 300k.
 

ad_hoc

Hero
Canada has 4 000 cases and 39 deaths.

That is 107 cases per million and 1 death per million population.

And all of our politicians are united together among all levels of government with our doctors that this is very serious. Every address they make is serious and they constantly implore people to not leave their houses. Various levels of enforcement have now been authorized to that end and I believe they will become more heavily enforced as some people continue to flaunt the mandate to stay home.

I imagine this is probably how it is being handled in most other countries. Then we have America. I've watched a couple press conferences lately. Trump and his team talk as though they are through the worst part, they have treatments and cures on the way, and have all the medical equipment they need. They want to lift the lockdowns April 12th.

They currently have 259 cases per million and 4 deaths per million population. 1 in 500 people in New York state has a confirmed case of COVID 19.

The USA is going to be hit hardest because of their weak mandate to social distancing.

That hurts Canada too because Canadians watch a lot of American politics, so they're going to be hearing that it isn't a big deal. Journalists have asked our politicians (I believe it was the Deputy Prime Minister) about American's strategy and how she felt about it and her response was "we are choosing to follow the science". That was the most diplomatic way she could think of to respond.
 

FrogReaver

As long as i get to be the frog
Canada has 4 000 cases and 39 deaths.

That is 107 cases per million and 1 death per million population.

And all of our politicians are united together among all levels of government with our doctors that this is very serious. Every address they make is serious and they constantly implore people to not leave their houses. Various levels of enforcement have now been authorized to that end and I believe they will become more heavily enforced as some people continue to flaunt the mandate to stay home.

I imagine this is probably how it is being handled in most other countries. Then we have America. I've watched a couple press conferences lately. Trump and his team talk as though they are through the worst part, they have treatments and cures on the way, and have all the medical equipment they need. They want to lift the lockdowns April 12th.

They currently have 259 cases per million and 4 deaths per million population. 1 in 500 people in New York state has a confirmed case of COVID 19.

The USA is going to be hit hardest because of their weak mandate to social distancing.

That hurts Canada too because Canadians watch a lot of American politics, so they're going to be hearing that it isn't a big deal. Journalists have asked our politicians (I believe it was the Deputy Prime Minister) about American's strategy and how she felt about it and her response was "we are choosing to follow the science". That was the most diplomatic way she could think of to respond.

For the most part - internally the U.S. doesn't function as one nation nor as separate countries that can close their borders. Our political makeup will make social distancing on the national scale nearly impossible. In areas it isn't bad in yet - they will be lax on it. In areas it's hard hit they will go more extreme. The problem is without us working in unison this is going to be one very prolonged battle where we constantly export the virus back to places that recovered from it. So on some level maybe he's right that the best option for the U.S. may be to just tough it out because the will isn't there for all states and counties and cities to work together and all make the necessary sacrifices on this.

It's almost as if we are in a real life prisoner's dilemma and aren't sticking to the smart play.
 

ad_hoc

Hero
Panic is NEVER good.

People should be aware and take precaution, but never panic.

Unfortunately people are using it as an accusation against anyone who is doing the reasonable and responsible thing and social distancing.

I'm still having arguments with people on my marketplace ads sites. I just had one message me and I told them to 'stay home'. They told me to 'stop panicking'. Like, that's not what panic is. It's frustrating.

'Don't worry so much, just live your life' is going to be the death of us.
 

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