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D&D and the rising pandemic

ad_hoc

Hero
For the most part - internally the U.S. doesn't function as one nation nor as separate countries that can close their borders. Our political makeup will make social distancing on the national scale nearly impossible. In areas it isn't bad in yet - they will be lax on it. In areas it's hard hit they will go more extreme. The problem is without us working in unison this is going to be one very prolonged battle where we constantly export the virus back to places that recovered from it. So on some level maybe he's right that the best option for the U.S. may be to just tough it out because the will isn't there for all states and counties and cities to work together and all make the necessary sacrifices on this.

It's almost as if we are in a real life prisoner's dilemma and aren't sticking to the smart play.

I think Canada is proof that a disparate nation can come together. The Canadian provinces do not like each other and the nation is barely held together. Yet on this issue, Canada is united. Not just in political parties but from province to province too.

I prefer the trolley problem:

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Zardnaar

Legend
We are on pace to be at 1.2 million cases within at least 12 days, maybe 8 days. (I don't think we can test that many).

In 2-3 weeks we are on pace for 10 million cases. Assuming the 3% mortality rate estimate - that's 300,000 dead.

My personal number is lower but my guesstimate was 9/11 numbers every 1-3 days. For several weeks.

Vietnam war levels in a few weeks not over 10 years in the American heartland.
 


FrogReaver

As long as i get to be the frog
My personal number is lower but my guesstimate was 9/11 numbers every 1-3 days. For several weeks.

Vietnam war levels in a few weeks not over 10 years in the American heartland.

i no longer believe that we have the willpower to do what needs done to significantly slow the spread. So far the case increases are backing that up.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
i no longer believe that we have the willpower to do what needs done to significantly slow the spread. So far the case increases are backing that up.

I got yelled at on another forum when I pointed this out.

May have been a bit blunt bit there's 5 Anglo Saxon nation's, 1 is screwed, 1 might come through reasonably ok the other 3 are somewhere in the middle but I'm leaning towards slightly less screwed.

I have hopes for Canada, the other 3 see what happens.
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
Canada has 4 000 cases and 39 deaths.

That is 107 cases per million and 1 death per million population.

And all of our politicians are united together among all levels of government with our doctors that this is very serious. Every address they make is serious and they constantly implore people to not leave their houses. Various levels of enforcement have now been authorized to that end and I believe they will become more heavily enforced as some people continue to flaunt the mandate to stay home.

I imagine this is probably how it is being handled in most other countries. Then we have America. I've watched a couple press conferences lately. Trump and his team talk as though they are through the worst part, they have treatments and cures on the way, and have all the medical equipment they need. They want to lift the lockdowns April 12th.

They currently have 259 cases per million and 4 deaths per million population. 1 in 500 people in New York state has a confirmed case of COVID 19.

The USA is going to be hit hardest because of their weak mandate to social distancing.

That hurts Canada too because Canadians watch a lot of American politics, so they're going to be hearing that it isn't a big deal. Journalists have asked our politicians (I believe it was the Deputy Prime Minister) about American's strategy and how she felt about it and her response was "we are choosing to follow the science". That was the most diplomatic way she could think of to respond.

Canadians, listen to an American: don’t listen to Americans!
 


Ogre Mage

Adventurer
Then we have America. I've watched a couple press conferences lately. Trump and his team talk as though they are through the worst part, they have treatments and cures on the way, and have all the medical equipment they need. They want to lift the lockdowns April 12th.

They currently have 259 cases per million and 4 deaths per million population. 1 in 500 people in New York state has a confirmed case of COVID 19.

The USA is going to be hit hardest because of their weak mandate to social distancing.

Our federal leadership is anti-science and completely incompetent.

I live in Washington State where the initial U.S. outbreak happened. Knock on wood, it looks like things here are improving.

KIRKLAND, Wash. —The suburban hospital that handled the first onslaught of coronavirus patients weeks ago — a crush of seriously ill and dying nursing home residents that signaled the beginning of the national health crisis — is now offering cautious optimism to people across the United States who are searching for an end to the springtime nightmare: They believe they might have flattened the curve here.

In Kirkland, Washington the coronavirus outbreak appears to be leveling off
 
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Hussar

Legend
/snip

Between 15-20% of the people that get sick will need hospitalization. Hospitalization increases your chance of survival 10 fold. Add in all the unknowns like 50% of the people in Iceland (where they have done extensive testing) that have antibodies for the virus show no symptoms whatsoever and we don't know if people are immune after recovery.

Where did that 15-20% number come from? That seem unbelievably high. Considering the Chinese had 80k cases and certainly didn't hospitalize nearly 20000 people.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Where did that 15-20% number come from? That seem unbelievably high. Considering the Chinese had 80k cases and certainly didn't hospitalize nearly 20000 people.

Chinese numbers are suspect.

Liquid gold. Friend of a friend type deal.

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Been sold out last month. Not exactly a brand name but it does the job.
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
Where did that 15-20% number come from? That seem unbelievably high. Considering the Chinese had 80k cases and certainly didn't hospitalize nearly 20000 people.
I’ve seen that number in some press releases from those fighting the bug, based on averaging the numbers from various countries This article reports China hospitalized 15% of its cases, of which a third were in critical care. Italy was the worst, with a reported hospitalization rate of @50%. But Italy’s population demographics and late response were huge factors in that.
 

Hussar

Legend
My personal number is lower but my guesstimate was 9/11 numbers every 1-3 days. For several weeks.

Vietnam war levels in a few weeks not over 10 years in the American heartland.

Ok, why would you even go that far?

China, which, frankly, lags MASSIVELY behind the US in health care, and is far more densely populated, is already seeing its numbers start to slow down.

Why would you think that the US would utterly fail to deal with this? Since when has the US ever totally failed to deal with things? When have you ever seen a complete breakdown in the US? Again, you're just fear mongering.

Yup, 80000 cases in the US. That's bad. But, we're look at a country of 350 million people. Perspective is very much needed here folks. No, this is not the apocalypse. We will get through this, just like we got through everything else that's been thrown at us. You're saying that in a few weeks we're going to see 60 000 deaths? in the US? dude, you really, really need to lay off of whatever it is that you're smoking.

Or, do you honestly believe that China was twenty times more effective than the largest economy in the world at dealing with a crisis?
 

Olrox17

Hero
Ok, why would you even go that far?

China, which, frankly, lags MASSIVELY behind the US in health care, and is far more densely populated, is already seeing its numbers start to slow down.

Why would you think that the US would utterly fail to deal with this? Since when has the US ever totally failed to deal with things? When have you ever seen a complete breakdown in the US? Again, you're just fear mongering.

Yup, 80000 cases in the US. That's bad. But, we're look at a country of 350 million people. Perspective is very much needed here folks. No, this is not the apocalypse. We will get through this, just like we got through everything else that's been thrown at us. You're saying that in a few weeks we're going to see 60 000 deaths? in the US? dude, you really, really need to lay off of whatever it is that you're smoking.

Or, do you honestly believe that China was twenty times more effective than the largest economy in the world at dealing with a crisis?
You’ll deal with it if you, the American people, start dealing with it, instead of relying on blind, unfounded optimism.

“It’s gonna be fine coz we’re the best country evah” isn’t going to cut it. You'll have to make some sacrifices.
 

Hussar

Legend
You’ll deal with it if you, the American people, start dealing with it, instead of relying on blind, unfounded optimism.

“It’s gonna be fine coz we’re the best country evah” isn’t going to cut it. You'll have to make some sacrifices.

Oh, of course. ((Just to be clear, I'm Canadian, living in Japan))

No one is saying do nothing. But, claims that we're going to see 10's of thousands of dead in the next couple of weeks is just fear mongering at its worst. If this virus was really that deadly, wouldn't you think that China would be having a somewhat larger problem? Or Japan?

Heck, our kids go back to school next week. We did our due dilligence. We stayed home for a month. We closed down the country. And, cases have been relatively mild and it's being handled pretty well.

It's like the testing thing. Testing doesn't really do anything. Guess what? This is a virus. They can do exactly nothing for you if you test positive. Zero. Zilch. There has never, ever been a cure for any virus. What they can do is treat the pneumonia that develops from the virus - but, if you don't develop pneumonia, which most people don't, Covid-19 is not going to kill you.

The problem in Italy was that they tested tons of people and then sent everyone who tested positive to the hospital, completely overwhelming their medical care and completely failing to triage the problem. Because they panicked. And, frankly, Italy has largely the same demographic profile as Japan - lots of very old people which meant that the virus was a lot more deadly.

It's a very, very complicated issue. And it's going to take some time to resolve. But, overblown cries that the sky is falling and we're all going to die is not helpful. At all.
 

Olrox17

Hero
Oh, of course. ((Just to be clear, I'm Canadian, living in Japan))

No one is saying do nothing. But, claims that we're going to see 10's of thousands of dead in the next couple of weeks is just fear mongering at its worst. If this virus was really that deadly, wouldn't you think that China would be having a somewhat larger problem? Or Japan?

Heck, our kids go back to school next week. We did our due dilligence. We stayed home for a month. We closed down the country. And, cases have been relatively mild and it's being handled pretty well.

It's like the testing thing. Testing doesn't really do anything. Guess what? This is a virus. They can do exactly nothing for you if you test positive. Zero. Zilch. There has never, ever been a cure for any virus. What they can do is treat the pneumonia that develops from the virus - but, if you don't develop pneumonia, which most people don't, Covid-19 is not going to kill you.

The problem in Italy was that they tested tons of people and then sent everyone who tested positive to the hospital, completely overwhelming their medical care and completely failing to triage the problem. Because they panicked. And, frankly, Italy has largely the same demographic profile as Japan - lots of very old people which meant that the virus was a lot more deadly.

It's a very, very complicated issue. And it's going to take some time to resolve. But, overblown cries that the sky is falling and we're all going to die is not helpful. At all.
Personally, I'm not sure the data on deaths provided by chinese authorities is entirely genuine, but that's beside the point.
You're right, panicking isn't helpful and should be avoided. Downplaying the crisis, however, could be extremely damaging and lead to massive loss of human lives.
Right now, the best attitude is to be stoic and disciplined, only listening to the certified experts and following their lead. If they tell to stay home, you stay home. If they tell there's no need to stock up on 6 months of supplies, you don't do that. It's kinda like a war, really.
 

Sadras

Hero
One lived in Colorado, she read Reuters and BBC. She didn't know about Italy.

I have an aunt and uncle in Atlanta. They didnt know about building no 7. I live in Cape Town. Sadly the news agencies these days are more about tweets, third-rate opinions and tabloid trivia than actually educating the public on what is happening. Chernobyl the lot of them!
 

GreyLord

Hero
Why worry about the US?

China has a Billion people. They managed to subside it (from outward appearances) by extreme drastic measures (welding people inside their homes, people dying of starvation kept in homes, etc...etc...etc.).

They had over 80K cases.

The US only has 350 million in comparison. Less than 1/3 of China. The US now has more COVID than China did and it hasn't even gotten close to it's peak.

I would think most nations at this point should ban any travel from the US, ban anything coming from the US, and isolate the US until they have had the plague go through it. They are the hotspot right now and it does not seem contained. Seems an easy way to get migration from COVID is to things come from the US to other nations.

This is a war, not against a nation, but against a disease. It is a war I think we will win as a race (humans), but unless we treat the disease as the enemy, we are going to have more losses than victories in the beginning. Right now I think many are still playing politics or economics rather than facing the common enemy we all have.

And that's the limit of what I'll say on that as it's not really why I made this thread.

On brighter concerns, did another D&D session today. Made it a little further in the Dungeon. It went a little better today though it still doesn't beat face to face.

However, in these times of concern, we do what we must to support the community efforts. I am having to accept their statements on what they rolled at face value. I've heard of dice rolling apps for phones, I'm thinking of maybe having them all download those so that they roll them then hold up the results to the screen so I can validate the rolls. They rolled VERY WELL today. It's not that I don't trust them, having played with them for a while...but those were some VERY LUCKY rolls today. It was typical to do maximum damage in combat...which if it happens over 50% of the time seems rather...odd. Could happen...but doesn't seem likely.
 

Hussar

Legend
/snip
It's kinda like a war, really.

I dunno. Maybe I'm just a little more blase because this isn't exactly my first rodeo. I was here for SARS. I was here for MERS. Bird flu. Swine flu. Couple of others as well.

Still here.

Keeping calm, do your due dilligence and everything will be fine. Stories of welding people in their homes, well, if you're getting your news from The Sun, perhaps changing the channel might be a better notion.
 

briggart

Explorer
The problem in Italy was that they tested tons of people and then sent everyone who tested positive to the hospital, completely overwhelming their medical care and completely failing to triage the problem. Because they panicked. And, frankly, Italy has largely the same demographic profile as Japan - lots of very old people which meant that the virus was a lot more deadly.

It's a very, very complicated issue. And it's going to take some time to resolve. But, overblown cries that the sky is falling and we're all going to die is not helpful. At all.

Not sure where you got that, but Italy healthcare system being overwhelmed had nothing to do with testing. Italy switched to testing only symptomatic people on 28/02, at that time we had about 800-900 confirmed cases and ~20 death, which is something the healthcare system could manage. I'm not saying it was business as usual, but the system was able to hold much more than that. The stated reason why we switched testing policy was to follow WHO guidelines.

The comparison with Japan is interesting. Demographics is very similar, but Japan seems to be faring better than pretty much all European countries, so it suggests that the difference is not given by the Italian healthcare having reached saturation point, but something else specific to Japan.
 

Oofta

Title? I don't need no stinkin' title.
Where did that 15-20% number come from? That seem unbelievably high. Considering the Chinese had 80k cases and certainly didn't hospitalize nearly 20000 people.
The governor of the state who got it from specialists and consultants. AKA professionals whose job it is to figure out this kind of thing.
 

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