D&D and the rising pandemic

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

The CDC when it recommended no gatherings of 50 or more for 8 weeks. The way in the past they’ve been giving recommendations, and how the approach to self quarantine has evolved, it’s entirely probable to expect that would extend to families as well shortly.

"No large gatherings" is not the same as "lock yourself in your toilet paper fort for two months."

And no, they're not going to say no groups of more than five people. First, it's not something that they can reasonably expect will happen and secondly, that's far below the point where they're worried about the virus being transmitted quickly.

The goal isn't to prevent the virus from being transmitted at all -- that's not something that can be reasonably hoped for -- but to slow it way down. Once you have people working from home and not going to restaurants or movie theaters, it will continue to spread, but slowly enough that, hopefully, hospitals won't ever have such a glut that they can't keep up. (Caveat: In some areas, all of these actions are too late and the hospitals are glutted. Kaiser hospitals in Oregon have just cancelled or postponed all surgeries not essential to saving someone's life in the near term because they need the beds.)

 

[Sacrosanct]

"No large gatherings" is not the same as "lock yourself in your toilet paper fort for two months."

And no, they're not going to say no groups of more than five people. First, it's not something that they can reasonably expect will happen and secondly, that's far below the point where they're worried about the virus being transmitted quickly.

The goal isn't to prevent the virus from being transmitted at all -- that's not something that can be reasonably hoped for -- but to slow it way down. Once you have people working from home and not going to restaurants or movie theaters, it will continue to spread, but slowly enough that, hopefully, hospitals won't ever have such a glut that they can't keep up. (Caveat: In some areas, all of these actions are too late and the hospitals are glutted. Kaiser hospitals in Oregon have just cancelled or postponed all surgeries not essential to saving someone's life in the near term because they need the beds.)

Look at what the recommendations were when this started. Look how they changed. Look at where they are now. I don’t think it’s probable that this last recommendation will be the final revision. Especially looking at what’s happening in Italy, and especially looking at the woeful response our government has done so far.

No, I think it’s entirely plausible recommendations will continue to get tighter as this gets worse.

 

[Umbran]

The CDC when it recommended no gatherings of 50 or more for 8 weeks.

Ah. I think that characterizing that as a "lockdown" is inaccurate.

At the moment, there's a prohibition against gatherings of more than 25 people in MA. But, we can still go to the grocery. We can even got to retails stores, so long as the retailer is observing that limit. My wife (a veterinarian) is still seeing critical care cases. We'll probably go out for a walk later to pay ambulatory mobile games.

We are not "locked down" in any meaningful sense.

The way in the past they’ve been giving recommendations, and how the approach to self quarantine has evolved, it’s entirely probable to expect that would extend to families as well shortly.

Your speculation that they might do a thing does not qualify as them talking about doing it.

 

[NotAYakk]

"No large gatherings" is not the same as "lock yourself in your toilet paper fort for two months."

And no, they're not going to say no groups of more than five people. First, it's not something that they can reasonably expect will happen and secondly, that's far below the point where they're worried about the virus being transmitted quickly.

Austria has banned gatherings of 5 or more.

COVID19: Austria bans public groups, tightens border

Austrians have been uged to self-isolate, with police deployed to disperse groups of more than five in public.

www.aljazeera.com

The goal isn't to prevent the virus from being transmitted at all -- that's not something that can be reasonably hoped for -- but to slow it way down. Once you have people working from home and not going to restaurants or movie theaters, it will continue to spread, but slowly enough that, hopefully, hospitals won't ever have such a glut that they can't keep up. (Caveat: In some areas, all of these actions are too late and the hospitals are glutted. Kaiser hospitals in Oregon have just cancelled or postponed all surgeries not essential to saving someone's life in the near term because they need the beds.)

So a big problem is that this is growing 22%-33% per day. And deaths lag measures to contain the virus by about 3 weeks.

1.22^20 is 45. 1.33^20 is 300.

For every death there are 5 people who are very sick and need 2-6 weeks of ICU, and if they don't get it, they have a very high chance of death.

So if you have 2 deaths/day today, and you lock things down, in 20 days you can have 90 to 600 deaths/day, and every day have 450 to 3000 people who need ICU beds for ~4 weeks.

If you "level" the number of infections, after 3 weeks you need 9000 to 60000 ICU beds in use to keep people alive.

Nobody has enough ICU beds to handle that for very long. So when you see that coming, extreme measures may be needed to prevent your hospital system from failing and needless deaths happening.

This is what is happening in Italy right now.

Italy: coronavirus (COVID-19) cumulative cases 2024 | Statista

The first two cases of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in Italy were recorded between the end of January and the beginning of February 2020.

www.statista.com

Those are new diagnosed cases; and as Italy is mostly diagnosing serious cases (that need hospital support), those are new serious cases (with about a week delay since infection).

350 new deaths yesterday. Those are mostly people who got infected before the lockdown measures. Many only dead because Italy has an ICU shortage. The numbers keep growing.

How the US stacks up to other countries in confirmed coronavirus cases

The United States has about a third of the world’s coronavirus cases.

www.vox.com

USA is 10 days behind Italy.

Here are Italians talking to themselves 10 days ago, telling themselves what they wished they knew then:


I hope that is sufficiently cited.

#stayathome

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Energy utilised? Not much. And generally when people do stock up they acquire food and other items too. i.e. long-lasting foods, frozen foods, cleaning materials (soap/toothpaste). It won't be TP in isolation that gets purchased in bulk.

I used to audit a company that used to manufacture all sorts of cleaning related materials.. i.e. detergents and stuff including toilet paper. They used to refer to toilet paper as white gold. Always thought that was apt.

Yes, energy utilized: the opportunity cost in acquiring (especially if Thunderdome combat was involved), transporting and storing an excess of TP (or sanitizers, etc.) that should have been used for other things is nontrivial.

Consider that some of these people have not gotten the supplies they actually need, and will have to go BACK out into the stores to find them if/when the need actually arises. That means getting back into long lines- inside AND outside of the store, depending- to find these things. Assuming they’re still available where they first shop for them. If they’re not, the energy expended goes higher.

And people buying baskets or carloads of TP, etc. at a time for panic or profiteering are generally NOT buying other stuff at the same time- they physically don’t have the room to do so. There’s pictures of them out there, carts piled 8’ high of single products.

 

[Sacrosanct]

Ah. I think that characterizing that as a "lockdown" is inaccurate.

At the moment, there's a prohibition against gatherings of more than 25 people in MA. But, we can still go to the grocery. We can even got to retails stores, so long as the retailer is observing that limit. My wife (a veterinarian) is still seeing critical care cases. We'll probably go out for a walk later to pay ambulatory mobile games.

We are not "locked down" in any meaningful sense. We aren't in Northern Italy yet.



Your speculation that they might do a thing does not qualify as them talking about doing it.

Looking at what has happened, and what is happening here and elsewhere, I think it’s pretty safe speculation to assume it will get tighter. In fact, only looking at what they say today in the moment only by CDC guidelines is setting you up for failure. The CDC hasn’t exactly proven themselves entirely reliable recently.

Look at what the Italians are telling us. look at what Austria just did. Yeah, it may be my speculation, but my speculation of risk assessment and being prepared is what has allowed me to remain home for months if I need to and have avoided putting myself at potential exposure by running out to stores of crowds of panic buyers.

So when the CDC goes from 500 people, to 250, to 100, to 50 now, I think it’s pretty obvious to see the writing on the wall of the trend. Especially when you factor in what everyone else is implementing.

 

[Umbran]

And people buying baskets or carloads of TP, etc. at a time for panic or profiteering...

Those doing it for profiteering may be in a bit of a shock, as there are laws against doing that with relevant materials when a state of emergency has been announced.

 

[Umbran]

Look at what the Italians are telling us. look at what Austria just did. Yeah, it may be my speculation...

You don't seem to be getting this - I don't care that you think it is wise. You presented your speculation as "Them" discussing it.

If, in a state of emergency, you cannot see the issue with that, you are part of the problem, not part of the solution. The fact that you think you are correct is irrelevant. We need clear channels of accurate information. The inaccurate presentation was the thing I took issue with.

So, talk about how you speculate this will happen all you want. That's fine. Just don't present is as if it might be coming from authorities.

 

[SkidAce]

...It shouldn’t be any worse than the gas lines of the 1970s.

Ugh

 

[hawkeyefan]