D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[Zardnaar]

Opening weekend was apparently a hit as it outperformed expectations. It’s made 71.5 million over the weekend. Still a long ways to go to hit that magic 400+ it needs but a positive sign.

That just means the predictions were somewhat correct. Ones that came out after early releases.

Thise expectations were industry Ines we don't know Hasbros/Paramount ones.

 

[teitan]

That just means the predictions were somewhat correct. Ones that came out after early releases.

Thise expectations were industry Ines we don't know Hasbros/Paramount ones.

That’s a lot more than the industry expectations were. Those were 65 million at best.

 

[Zardnaar]

That’s a lot more than the industry expectations were. Those were 65 million at best.

Only beat the expectations marginally.

Its all downhill from here as well long way to go to go to the bare minimum break even point.

See what the drop off is week 2.

 

[teitan]

Only beat the expectations marginally.

Its all downhill from here as well long way to go to go to the bare minimum break even point.

See what the drop off is week 2.

Next weekend is Mario and after that for several weeks those films have no competition. The word of mouth is excellent on the film. It will have legs. It will dip week 2 because of Mario. Then it will play for the long haul as Paramount has said it’s not getting a truncated run like a lot of films have been getting. They’re expecting Uncharted not Marvel.

Mario is expected to be 85-90 million dollar opening. That’s big but it’s a kids movie. The movie line up is D&D, John Wick, Scream 6. JW already had a massive weekend and dipped out 60+% the following week. After this weekend it’s going to be slim pickings for a few. D&D will be number 2 for a couple weeks.

 

[Zardnaar]

Next weekend is Mario and after that for several weeks those films have no competition. The word of mouth is excellent on the film. It will have legs. It will dip week 2 because of Mario. Then it will play for the long haul as Paramount has said it’s not getting a truncated run like a lot of films have been getting. They’re expecting Uncharted not Marvel.

Mario is expected to be 85-90 million dollar opening. That’s big but it’s a kids movie. The movie line up is D&D, John Wick, Scream 6. JW already had a massive weekend and dipped out 60+% the following week. After this weekend it’s going to be slim pickings for a few. D&D will be number 2 for a couple weeks.

And rhara why I'm not xalling it a flop yet. From memory a huge % of a movies total uis in the first few weeks. The onger it runs the more money the theatre collects.

I woukd expect it to drop 30-70% like every other movie pretty much does.

70, 50, 35, 23 roughly at 30%around 180 million.

70, 35, 18, 9 at 50%. 155 approx.

70, 21, 7, 3 70% 100+ approx.

I rounded up. Sure there's month two but the tail end us comparatively tiny the drop off gets smaller each week. And almost golf of that is foreign (less money for studio)

None of those numbers are near 300 million and it's unlikely even the first number gets anywhere close.

30% is probably a best case number as well. Sure the drop rate will vary but it's pretty much going to drop each week.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

And rhara why I'm not xalling it a flop yet. From memory a huge % of a movies total uis in the first few weeks. The onger it runs the more money the theatre collects.

I woukd expect it to drop 30-70% like every other movie pretty much does.

70, 50, 35, 23 roughly at 30%around 180 million.

70, 35, 18, 9 at 50%. 155 approx.

70, 21, 7, 3 70% 100+ approx.

I rounded up. Sure there's month two but the tail end us comparatively tiny the drop off gets smaller each week. And almost golf of that is foreign (less money for studio)

None of those numbers are near 300 million and it's unlikely even the first number gets anywhere close.

30% is probably a best case number as well. Sure the drop rate will vary but it's pretty much going to drop each week.

Lets see. I would not write it off just yet.
To reiterate: Dungeons & Dragons movie has a way slower ramp upp time than most movies due to bad reputation. Completely unlike John Wick that van piggyback on the previous one.

Also, as D&D is also for Kids, going there immediately is not mandatory. You want to ask some friends first if the violence and so on is ok. And if it is really funny for kids.

Going by my peer group, there are still way more potential moviegoers than usual. Word of mouth might really help the movie to keep up.

And even if it does not do 300k, it might still pave the way for a sequel.

 

[Mirtek]

Our cinema had it in it's smallest theater, has actually been years since I saw a movie that was shown in this particular room.

Apparently at least this one cinema lacks faith in the movie.

PS: Now I recall my last movie in this room, it way the Dragon Ball Super movie. They're really using this smallest room for niche movies.

Hope this is not something that other cinemas in Germany are doing to this movie

 

[Zardnaar]

Our cinema had it in it's smallest theater, has actually been years since I saw a movie that was shown in this particular room.

Apparently at least this one cinema lacks faith in the movie.

PS: Now I recall my last movie in this room, it way the Dragon Ball Super movie. They're really using this smallest room for niche movies.

Hope this is not something that other cinemas in Germany are doing to this movie

Anecdote D&D is a bigger brand in US than other countries.

 

[teitan]

Lets see. I would not write it off just yet.
To reiterate: Dungeons & Dragons movie has a way slower ramp upp time than most movies due to bad reputation. Completely unlike John Wick that van piggyback on the previous one.

Also, as D&D is also for Kids, going there immediately is not mandatory. You want to ask some friends first if the violence and so on is ok. And if it is really funny for kids.

Going by my peer group, there are still way more potential moviegoers than usual. Word of mouth might really help the movie to keep up.

And even if it does not do 300k, it might still pave the way for a sequel.

That last bit is why I say they are going to watch home release and streaming numbers on this one. A lot of major franchises have come from sleeper hits. They didn’t invest 150 million in a movie that might hit 350-400 million in theaters. They’re planning long term and merchandising on this one and there is a lot on this one. Word of mouth will lead to strong streaming and home release rentals and sales. Everyone I saw this with is already lined up to buy it. I think half already have tickets to see it again or have seen it again already. The souvenir cups and popcorn bowls are selling out. That’s all added to the bottom line for the movie. Anything with Chris Pine’s face on it, Hugh Grant etc. that sales adds to the bottom line with it. Does anybody else remember when Star Wars movies, the prequels, were paid off before the movies even hit the theater thanks to all the merch they were moving already? D&D isn’t going to do that level no but every graphic novel, toy, kids book, blanket, soda can, etc generates revenue for this movie. You add all that in too? Batman Begins leads to the Dark Knight. Batman Begins wasn’t a massive hit either. It became one after leaving theaters. It made its budget but not it’s advertising costs back until the DVD release.

 

[Zardnaar]

That last bit is why I say they are going to watch home release and streaming numbers on this one. A lot of major franchises have come from sleeper hits. They didn’t invest 150 million in a movie that might hit 350-400 million in theaters. They’re planning long term and merchandising on this one and there is a lot on this one. Word of mouth will lead to strong streaming and home release rentals and sales. Everyone I saw this with is already lined up to buy it. I think half already have tickets to see it again or have seen it again already. The souvenir cups and popcorn bowls are selling out. That’s all added to the bottom line for the movie. Anything with Chris Pine’s face on it, Hugh Grant etc. that sales adds to the bottom line with it. Does anybody else remember when Star Wars movies, the prequels, were paid off before the movies even hit the theater thanks to all the merch they were moving already? D&D isn’t going to do that level no but every graphic novel, toy, kids book, blanket, soda can, etc generates revenue for this movie. You add all that in too? Batman Begins leads to the Dark Knight. Batman Begins wasn’t a massive hit either. It became one after leaving theaters. It made its budget but not it’s advertising costs back until the DVD release.

I would say they invested 150 million with higher expectations than what we're seeing.

It's not a smash hit movie a few were predicting based purely on personal bias.

Hell on Enworld some were thinking billion dollars