D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[Mannahnin]

and 99 percent of rotten tomatoes isn't even 25% of the reviews.

 

[bedir than]

That statement isn't even remotely true. Unless you call rotten tomatoes everyone who saw it. The fact it didn't make a profit says it all. A minority of us geeks liked it and a few said bad things about it, and the majority ignored it as pointless and not worth their time.


The one thing about absolute statements is that it is the safest bet in the universe that the statement is wrong.

There can be plenty of reasons why people don't see award winning and/or well regarded films.
Popularity is an indicator of quality, in general, but isn't the sole arbiter of quality -- ever.

 

[Zardnaar]

A guy explaining how much money a movie needs to make. And yes he's a Hollywood insiders (worked in industry, ex journalist, interviews actors, directors etc, knows some etc).


He uses a 1.5 multiplier of expenses. 2.5 is often used on production costs if marketing is unknown. Others use expenses X2.

About 2 weeks ago it became unclear about TLM being a flop as its had longer legs than the other summer blockbusters that tanked.

Theatres get bigger cut with longer legs though but is close enough the back end can likely carry it.

Used as example of how much movies need to make to make bank and where it's very close to break even point.

 

[bedir than]

He uses a 1.5 multiplier of expenses.

At 1.5 Honor Among Thieves would only need to make 32 million from streaming+VoD

 

[Zardnaar]

At 1.5 Honor Among Thieves would only need to make 32 million from streaming+VoD

More like 50 million+.

Depends how accurate your marketing figure is assuming the production costs are right.

 

[Ferrousbones]

At 1.5 Honor Among Thieves would only need to make 32 million from streaming+VoD

Looking at context, that is 1.5x the known costs together.

Known costs together are ~ $150 million in production, ~ $60 million in Paramount marketing, for a total of ~ $210 million. Times 1.5 equals ~ $315 million.

~ $315 million minus ~ $208 million (the final box office) equals ~ $107 million.

So Honor Among Thieves would need to make about $107 million from streaming+VOD.

 

[bedir than]

Looking at context, that is 1.5x the known costs together.

Known costs together are ~ $150 million in production, ~ $60 million in Paramount marketing, for a total of ~ $210 million. Times 1.5 equals ~ $315 million.

~ $315 million minus ~ $208 million (the final box office) equals ~ $107 million.

So Honor Among Thieves would need to make about $107 million from streaming+VOD.

Thank you!

I caught some bad math!

 

[Ferrousbones]

Thank you!

I caught some bad math!

Btw, after looking a little, it looks like Amazon's rental price up until May 16th (when HAT became available on Paramount+) was ~ $20. May 16th was about 1 1/2 months after theatrical debut.

In order for HAT to have broken even prior to Paramount+, it would have needed ($107 million divided by $20 divided by 45 days) ~120 thousand such views per day.

If yourself or anyone else here can find a views per day/week value for one or more of the movies close in rank to HAT, and can sync that up with a period of time, we might be able to math out approx. how HAT is/was doing.

 

[OB1]

At 1.5 Honor Among Thieves would only need to make 32 million from streaming+VoD

And something else we are all forgetting, since the film shot in Ireland it could have seen up to a $30M tax credit. Probably also saw some US tax credits from various Covid relief programs. Combined with Hasbro's investment, Paramount could have as little as $50-60M (not including marketing) on the line with the film.

 

[codo]

That statement isn't even remotely true. Unless you call rotten tomatoes everyone who saw it. The fact it didn't make a profit says it all. A minority of us geeks liked it and a few said bad things about it, and the majority ignored it as pointless and not worth their time.


The one thing about absolute statements is that it is the safest bet in the universe that the statement is wrong.

D&D HAT's problem wasn't that it was just a minority who liked it. It overwhelmingly got positive reviews from both critics and viewers. Over 90% positive reviews is really good. It's not that people didn't like it, its that people didn't see it (in theaters).

It's not like D&D was well placed to make blockbuster movies. The deck was really stocked against them. First of all D&D is still a niche hobby. A rapidly growing growing one, but still fairly niche. D&D also has a history of making legendarily awful movies. Movies so bad they often rank highly on lists of the worst movies ever.

That is a pretty big hurdle to overcome. It is basically the equivalent of trying to make a sequel to The Room, or Manos: Hands of Fate. The fact that the movies did as well as it did is actually a miracle. True it didn't do as well as they would have liked in theaters, but it did way better than anyone could have hoped for on streaming and VOD.

I have no doubt that D&D HAT will get a sequel, even if it doesn't end up turning a profit. The movie wasn't able to overcome all of its baggage to turn a profit in the theaters, but once the overwhelmingly positive word of mouth and reviews spread, it did much better than expected in Streaming and VOD. This shows that there actually is a large audience for D&D movies. When the sequel comes out, it will be much better placed to make a large profit. If even half or a quarter of the people who watched D&D HAT on VOD and streaming go see the sequel in the theater, it will be a huge hit.