I dunno. Have you been reading the Dragon's Eye View columns? It seems like they're just finishing up concepts for creatures like goblins--how does that bode for other creatures? On the other hand, they do seem to have working models for the new ogres and orcs, which they've used in Dungeon Command.
This just means they *might* be holding off on art with goblins and other uncertain critters. They could have been commissioning art with orcs, ogres, trolls, and many more for months.
That just seems unrealistic to me. Large portions of core content are unstable (fighter, rogue), unfinished (monsters), or outdated (exploration, feats, skills). They have to implement the changes they've decided on, then test them and iterate on them, then polish everything.
Rewriting is slow. Revising is fast. Having to redesign the fighter class each package is time consuming taking days to write and plan and months to test. Tweaking a couple powers and editing powers takes hours and can be tested in weeks.
They seem like they’ve settled on the basic rules and concepts and are now working on fine tuning, which we’ll see come August (and they’re likely doing more behind the scenes already). Once they get the feedback post-GenCon they can release a revision in late September and November getting feedback from those allowing them to fine-tune and balance for the late December or early January date.
Very doable.
They can do things to expand this. For example, they could release something akin to the Rules Cyclopedia that has all the rules in one book reducing the content. Then follow that a couple months later with expansions giving them more time to playtest and revise that.
I'd rather have it be complete when it comes out, rather than releasing it unfinished just to hit an arbitrary date.
If they release a Rules Cyclopedia it WILL be complete... just not comprehensive. It’ll have all the content needed to play the game, likely from 1-10, and have multiple classes, races, and monsters.
This also means they won’t need to reprint the basic core rules (making checks, calculating attacks, building characters, etc) in the PHB saving several dozen pages for more fun content.
The big problem with D&D is the new player buy-in. Getting started with the game has required three pricey books and will likely cost at least $150 for all three. It’s hard to get into.
WotC has tried to skirt this with starter sets which, frankly, have sucked. They’re priced too cheap to provide real content, being useful for a couple levels (or a long weekend) and then you need to go buy the full books. So you end up paying much more and end up with redundant content.
Having an all-in-one rulebook alleviates this because the first product is no longer redundant and is eminently giftable. And it allows more time to work on the expansion content, buying WotC a couple extra months to balance and test modules. And people who want the simple game can get it without having a tonne of extra options and rules. And as experienced players know the rules, they don’t need to even bring that book to games, and can just carry around a PHB that’s not full of content they no longer reference.
The down side is it’s more costly for experienced players who now have to buy that extra book. However, since they’re the audience who would buy accessories, they’d spend that amount of money anyway. It’s just bundling the first accessory with the PHB and DMG and moving the core rules into another book.
I see the release schedule being the Rules Cyclopedia and expanded Monster Manual followed by either the Player’s Handbook or the Dungeon Master’s Guide.