D&D 5E D&D pateau-ing?

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

If you check the searches for "dnd" on Google Trends right now, you'll see that the peak from 2020 is currently being surpassed by the amount of searches this month. It's clear that just one piece of data from a source tangentially attached to the overall popularity of D&D really isn't good evidence for this kind of shift, but even if it is, the main source of evidence that he used in his video has just been surpassed by an even higher peak in searches.

 

[Guest 7034872]

The big open question in my mind is, "How much of D&D's recent explosive growth has been COVID-related, and how long will the pandemic persist?" I'm sure it's been an important part of the growth story, but I'm even more sure Critical Role, MDCM, and others have been a lot more important.

This game started getting really popular on my college's campus back around 2017 or 2018 to where I started wondering what was going on. I'd use D&D examples in my classroom to ham up my nerdiness to the students and keep them engaged, and from around 2017 they weren't laughing at me anymore (I wanted them to--that was the point): they were now laughing along and then talking about campaigns they were in. By 2020 it seemed like half the campus was rolling d20s at least once a week.

"Is it plateauing?" I don't know. "Will its growth stay as explosive as it has been?" I mean, how could it? Things like this always have to at least slow down at some point. So long as the market doesn't contract, though, I imagine WotC will be just fine. Never underestimate a nerd's willingness to keep putting more cool stuff into their shopping cart.

 

[Hussar]

I imagine a lot of this has to do with the scale that he's looking at. Sure, you have ups and dips, but, zoom out a bit and look at a year by year graph, and now it's nothing but trending upwards. Since we're still only halfway through 2022, it would be pretty hard to claim that we've plateaued already. There's still lots of time and many releases in 2022 and beyond that will affect the trend. A month by month scale is too variable to get a good idea of trends. Quarterly growth maybe would be better to look at.

 

[Guest 7034872]

I imagine a lot of this has to do with the scale that he's looking at. Sure, you have ups and dips, but, zoom out a bit and look at a year by year graph, and now it's nothing but trending upwards. Since we're still only halfway through 2022, it would be pretty hard to claim that we've plateaued already. There's still lots of time and many releases in 2022 and beyond that will affect the trend. A month by month scale is too variable to get a good idea of trends. Quarterly growth maybe would be better to look at.

That's a good point. I never make any extrapolations about my 401k from monthly, quarterly, or even yearly numbers: I always look at the ten-year and twenty-year charts in order to filter out the noise of the moment.

 

[Parmandur]

If you check the searches for "dnd" on Google Trends right now, you'll see that the peak from 2020 is currently being surpassed by the amount of searches this month. It's clear that one piece of data from a source tangentially attached to the overall popularity of D&D really isn't good evidence for this kind of shift, but even if it is, the main source of evidence that he used in his video has just been surpassed by an even higher peak in searches.

He may have caused the spike.

 

[Parmandur]

The big open question in my mind is, "How much of D&D's recent explosive growth has been COVID-related, and how long will the pandemic persist?" I'm sure it's been an important part of the growth story, but I'm even more sure Critical Role, MDCM, and others have been a lot more important.

This game started getting really popular on my college's campus back around 2017 or 2018 to where I started wondering what was going on. I'd use D&D examples in my classroom to ham up my nerdiness to the students and keep them engaged, and from around 2017 they weren't laughing at me anymore (I wanted them to--that was the point): they were now laughing along and then talking about campaigns they were in. By 2020 it seemed like half the campus was rolling d20s at least once a week.

"Is it plateauing?" I don't know. "Will its growth stay as explosive as it has been?" I mean, how could it? Things like this always have to at least slow down at some point. So long as the market doesn't contract, though, I imagine WotC will be just fine. Never underestimate a nerd's willingness to keep putting more cool stuff into their shopping cart.

Explosive growth can only go so far, but I'm pretty sure Hasbro is happy with Monopoly or Risk's steady business. D&D is entering that state of cultural normalcy.

 

[Guest 7034872]

Explosive growth can only go so far, but I'm pretty sure Hasbro is happy with Monopoly or Risk's steady business. D&D is entering that state of cultural normalcy.

That's the really impressive thing to me: one no longer has to feel like a hopeless geek for playing this game. The popular students on my campus were getting into it. Therefore, I suspect most of the recent market gains will stick around.

It's a New Age, I tell you!--an exciting New Age of D&D without the social desirability bias!

 

[Parmandur]

That's the really impressive thing to me: one no longer has to feel like a hopeless geek for playing this game. The popular students on my campus were getting into it.

We have to get so much weirder to stay weird. Thanos and Vecna are too hip now, they are mainstream.

What a world.

 

[Bill Zebub]

4e is about to make a comeback. I can feel it.

It’s like 4e is watching the Big Game, and any minute now the coach is going to squint into the upper deck, point, and say, “You! 4e! Suit up, we need you! Yes, you!”

 

[Micah Sweet]

My suggestion is 6th Ed should starts as a "pilot episode" to test the reaction of the market, with a no-D&D videogame, for example based in Gamma World.

5Ed is too focused into the crunch, and the fandom doesn't want to spend too much money in something that will be "obsolete" relatively soon. It would be as if after buying a lot of expansions and DLC of the sims 3 you don't want start again with the sims 4, missing the updated version of your favorite expansion. And let's remember a bad choise in the marketing strategy could cause a wave toward Pathfinder 2 or other retroclones.

And we can't forget the works by the 3PPs, someones with really fresh and original ideas.

I don't know if I agree with your thoughts about 5e. In recent years WotC seems to be making a strong effort to simplify the game's crunch, much to my chagrin.