D&D 5E D&D pateau-ing?

[Ancalagon]

As to the original point...the pandemic's on its way out, so the original advantage of D&D as a social activity that can be done remotely has declined. No doubt some of the people who joined during the pandemic will continue to play, but we're likely to see at least something of a fall-off. All good things must come to an end (to allude to another franchise that still had a bit of life in it when they killed it).

But the plateau occurred in august 2020, which is somewhat early in the pandemic....

 

[Vaalingrade]

I don't know how much I'd assume there's some Edenic 'purity' to the hobby that got lost; Gygax tried to squelch unauthorized D&D supplements, for instance. Companies want to make money. The conflict between art and commerce is as old as art itself.

As to the original point...the pandemic's on its way out, so the original advantage of D&D as a social activity that can be done remotely has declined. No doubt some of the people who joined during the pandemic will continue to play, but we're likely to see at least something of a fall-off. All good things must come to an end (to allude to another franchise that still had a bit of life in it when they killed it).

I was talking about the practice of gifting and purchasing stakes in an economic venture.

 

[Cadence]

I think what would be much more convincing is the review ratio monsters of the multiverse is getting on Amazon.

3.5 stars and only 304 reviews. But it’s also in the top 100 out of all books on Amazon US.

Though it being ranked that high with only 304 reviews seems like a down trend, maybe. Maybe not.

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But how did searches for 5.5 and 6e go?

Edit: Doh! I somehow hit reply to the completely wrong post.

 

[darjr]

But how did searches for 5.5 and 6e go?

I dunno yet, I haven’t come back from the future yet.

 

[Mercurius]

Yeah, the Bay Transformer movies pumped life into a near-quiescent franchise. I was being facetious about the cartoon movies.

This may be the only time in recorded history that the phrase "Transformer movies" and the word "quiescent" have been used in the same sentence. So kudos for that.

 

[Blue Orange]

I was talking about the practice of gifting and purchasing stakes in an economic venture.

Oh, the stock market in general? Well, it was a way to raise money for companies. It's not clear privately held companies are any better; private equity firms have done quite a bit of damage. Privately held companies don't have to appeal to stockholders, though, so there is that. I mean, Gygax got tossed out by the Blumes because they initially sold them shares in the corporation to raise money. But then the only real alternative is to have the company funded by a wealthy individual--and you're then dependent on that wealthy individual's preferences. There's no real good answer, I think.

 

[Mercurius]

I actually looked this exact thing up a couple weeks ago, so maybe there was a tiny spike in googling D&D google analytics.

Anyhow, a couple things:

1) I don't think this is particularly meaningful because the global situation has been so wacky over the last two years, so it is hard to interpret it in any particular way. But the trend from 2014-2020 is most certainly meaningful - but it doesn't tell us anything that we didn't already know.

2) D&D's popularity will inevitably plateau, and probably dip at some point. But it might plateau and then start going up again, in a similar way that sometimes baseball players reach what seems like their peak level, plateau for a bit, then have another spike.

It may be that D&D has maxed out in the US, and possibly in the UK. But has it maxed out in Europe and the rest of the world? Most certainly not. For instance, I haven't heard of a D&D fad in Nigeria or Chile. Will there be? Maybe, maybe not. I think Hasbro wants to find out, and we'll know more after the movie comes out. I suspect we'll see another spike, and then a rise over the following year or two, then another plateau and then, well, who knows...

One minor note: While a lot of factors combined to make 5E as popular as it is today, I think Stranger Things is significantly more impactful than Critical Role and Matt Colville - to the extent that I don't think they're even worth mentioning in the same sentence. Here i think the video maker is confusing his own experience with larger trends.

 

[Cadence]

I dunno yet, I haven’t come back from the future yet.

Doh, I meant that to be a reply to: D&D 5E - D&D pateau-ing?
that looked to be about google searches.

I was wondering if 5.5 and 6e were syphoning some away.

 

[darjr]

Doh, I meant that to be a reply to: D&D 5E - D&D pateau-ing?
that looked to be about google searches.

I was wondering if 5.5 and 6e were syphoning some away.

Oh!

Huh? I wonder.

 

[Thomas Rainsborough]

The ebbs and flows of any game's sales are dictated solely by market forces.

In the case of Hasbro's current D&D product, there are many factors that influence sales, all with varying degrees of impact. Here are just a few.

1. Pop culture: D&D is riding high as a fad due to Stranger Things, Big Bang Theory, and of course Critical Role. There have been many many fads that came and went. (Cabbage Patch Dolls, anyone?). If and when pop culture grows tired of D&D, that will impact sales.
2. The quality of the product. The impact of that is self-evident.
3. The timing in that product's market life span. Clearly, Hasbro has decided that 5e is getting long in the tooth in the product life-cycle.

So will 6e create a big bump in sales? Who knows? The quality of a movie being released (see pop culture) will have probably just as much impact as the quality of the actual new game.

I do know that there is a growing backlash to the direction of D&D. I run a table of 1e at my local gaming cafe. I could not do that a year ago. I also know many of the existing DM's there are moving on to different game systems. That said, the open tables for 5e are going strong.