Fireball vs Orb - Demonweb Pits Data (no spoilers)

[gnfnrf]

In the epic fireball/lightning bolt vs orb thread, I tried to add actual game experiences to give some kind of grounding. However, I couldn't provide all of the numbers.

Today I got Expedition to the Demonweb Pits, and since it's really easy to read all the encounters, I went through and tested evocation vs orb on all of them... at least, all of them in the first four sections.

My methodology was as follows.
For each encounter, I calculated the expected damage dealt by a fireball or lightning bolt, compared to the expected damage dealt by an energy orb. I considered Reflex save bonus including evasion, SR, touch AC, and any inherent miss chances. I did not consider energy resistance.

I picked ranged touch attack bonus and save DC for 9th, 10th, and 11th levels (the range the sections roughly span) by making average builds.

The evoker has a save DC of 20 for his spells, and penetrates at level +1.

The conjurer has a ranged touch bonus of 9 or 10.

Neither spellcaster uses metamagic.

In each encounter, I assume that an area evocation can encompass half of the foes, plus one more foe half of the time, to a minimum of one foe. For most encounters, this is conservative for the first round of combat (the provided tacmaps indicate that more foes could be caught) but it may be generous in later rounds.

I also assume that the orb can be fired without intervening cover.

The encounters are a mixture of battles against drow, outsiders, and other creatures.

Of the 31 encounters I examined, the results are:

17 - An evocation is a better choice.
11 - An orb is a better choice.
2 - An orb is better to damage some foes, and an evocation better to damage others.
1 - There is no appreciable difference between choices.

I was very surprised by these results. I thought that with the prevalence of SR among drow and outsiders that the orb would be dominant.

I am interested to hear what people have to think of my choices, assumptions, and results.

--
gnfnrf

 

[tricky_bob]

...interesting...

I think too many people assume the Orbs are broken before they have (as you have done) tested them out.


Did you take into accout the +4 to AC that shooting into combat would cause?
Or are you assuming Point Blank Shot and Precise Shot were taken and the combat was always within 30ft.?

 

[Darklone]

Same here... I only once allowed an orb spell (only fire) in a game and even though I did like huge battles (with long ranges) the orb rocked.

 

[gnfnrf]

Did you take into accout the +4 to AC that shooting into combat would cause?
Or are you assuming Point Blank Shot and Precise Shot were taken and the combat was always within 30ft.?

I did not account for the -4 for firing into melee, either due to Precise Shot or a Rod of Precision, and I factored in a +1 either due to Point Blank Shot or Weapon Focus: Ranged Spell (I did not factor in an extra point of damage, so it is more accurately the latter).

However, shifting the attack bonus by one, the damage by one, or other incrememtal changes, does not change the overall results for the vast majority of encounters. Most places, the winning spell was clearly dominant.

--
gnfnrf

 

[James McMurray]

Looks good to me, and adds even more fuel to my "the balance level on orbs is largely dependent on campaign style" position.

 

[Elder-Basilisk]

My take is that failing to account for the impact of metamagic feats and energy resistance are major flaws in the methodology.

IME, damage focused arcane spellcasters make extensive use of metamagic feats. The normal 5th level area damage spell for a 9th-11th level wizard is not cone of cold; it's empowered fireball. Similarly, the normal 6th level single target damage spell is not disintegrate; it's an empowered orb spell (quite possibly orb of force since that gets by energy resistance and the 10d6 damage cap only starts to be a minor issue at level 11).

Secondly, energy resistance should have a different impact on the expected damage for evocations than for orbs. (Except in the case of a target with evasion). Since energy resistance is taken off of both the succeed and fail results of the evocation but only the succeed result of the orb spell (since the unsuccessful attack dealt no damage anyway) evocations benefit from this methodology. Also, energy resistance benefits orbs in the non-damage/action tactical sense because the most likely result casting an evocation at a creature with energy resistance is typically only a very small amound of damage. (Since my observation is that things tend to make their saves the majority of the time). On the other hand, the most likley result from an orb (in the situation where you would actually cast it instead of something like magic missile) is that it will do full damage-energy resistance. Thus an orb spell offers more reliably significant tactical advantage than evocations against creatures with spell resistance.

 

[Darklone]

Looks good to me, and adds even more fuel to my "the balance level on orbs is largely dependent on campaign style" position.

Yupp. IMC, the lesser orbs are much more unbalancing than the normal ones... the big ones as level 4 spells are ok, the level 1 spells rock too much

 

[gnfnrf]

My take is that failing to account for the impact of metamagic feats and energy resistance are major flaws in the methodology.

IME, damage focused arcane spellcasters make extensive use of metamagic feats. The normal 5th level area damage spell for a 9th-11th level wizard is not cone of cold; it's empowered fireball. Similarly, the normal 6th level single target damage spell is not disintegrate; it's an empowered orb spell (quite possibly orb of force since that gets by energy resistance and the 10d6 damage cap only starts to be a minor issue at level 11).

I can easily factor metamagic into my analysis. I chose not to because that wasn't the question I was interested in, but it is easy to add.

The strange thing is, AFAICT, metamagic will only benefit the evocations, and only some of the time. At 9th level, you will be comparing an empowered fireball to a normal orb (since I don't know of an appropriate +1 level metamagic for orbs). This will benefit the evoker. At 10th level, both will be empowered, and the ratio of damage between them will be exactly the same. This pattern will continue as the level advances.

If you disagree with this assumption, I would be glad to run the numbers. Please specify which metamagics are applied to the FB/LB and Orb at 9th, 10th, and 11th levels.

Secondly, energy resistance should have a different impact on the expected damage for evocations than for orbs. (Except in the case of a target with evasion). Since energy resistance is taken off of both the succeed and fail results of the evocation but only the succeed result of the orb spell (since the unsuccessful attack dealt no damage anyway) evocations benefit from this methodology. Also, energy resistance benefits orbs in the non-damage/action tactical sense because the most likely result casting an evocation at a creature with energy resistance is typically only a very small amound of damage. (Since my observation is that things tend to make their saves the majority of the time). On the other hand, the most likley result from an orb (in the situation where you would actually cast it instead of something like magic missile) is that it will do full damage-energy resistance. Thus an orb spell offers more reliably significant tactical advantage than evocations against creatures with spell resistance.

I don't understand your first point. I ignored energy resistance because an evoker with a lesser metamagic rod of Energy Substitution and the appropriate knowledges can nearly always bypass it, and I was just polite to the conjurer and assumed he had the proper orb ready to go. I didn't mean to imply that the final data was energy resistance neutral.

As for your second point, the overall average across creature types per encounter indicates a failed save 59% of the time, so I'm not sure I agree with your assertion that things make their saves.

The tactical advantage of killing one thing now vs hurting three things to kill them next round is undeniable. However, in other circumstances, a chance to kill everything is better than a near guarantee of killing one thing. The differences in tactical application between evocations and orbs are many and varied, and the numbers don't encompass them. All that the numbers do is see what happens when those considerations aren't at the forefront.

In other words, sometimes in DnD, it pays to be risk averse, and sometimes it pays to be risk loving. The numbers, however, always assume that you are risk neutral.

--
gnfnrf

 

[Elder-Basilisk]

I can easily factor metamagic into my analysis. I chose not to because that wasn't the question I was interested in, but it is easy to add.

The strange thing is, AFAICT, metamagic will only benefit the evocations, and only some of the time. At 9th level, you will be comparing an empowered fireball to a normal orb (since I don't know of an appropriate +1 level metamagic for orbs). This will benefit the evoker. At 10th level, both will be empowered, and the ratio of damage between them will be exactly the same. This pattern will continue as the level advances.

If you disagree with this assumption, I would be glad to run the numbers. Please specify which metamagics are applied to the FB/LB and Orb at 9th, 10th, and 11th levels.

Starting at 11th level, you should be looking at empowered orb of force and empowered orb of fire (energy substituted as necessary).

At 9th and 10th levels, you're right that core metamagic doesn't really help the orbs, though it does help evocations and it's not a fair comparison if you don't include that fact.

I don't understand your first point. I ignored energy resistance because an evoker with a lesser metamagic rod of Energy Substitution and the appropriate knowledges can nearly always bypass it, and I was just polite to the conjurer and assumed he had the proper orb ready to go. I didn't mean to imply that the final data was energy resistance neutral.

I don't know that I agree with evokers always being able to bypass energy resistance. That's an awful lot of energy substitution rods they need to have handy in order to bypass it every time and even then, a lot of creatures have multiple resistances.

And, of course, the energy substitution rods work just as well for conjurers. (Unless you're talking minor rods which don't work on the evokers' top tier spells either.)

As for your second point, the overall average across creature types per encounter indicates a failed save 59% of the time, so I'm not sure I agree with your assertion that things make their saves.

That much is a bit surprising since it doesn't match my expererience, but I suppose it's even probable that my experience is not representative (for example, in my experience, the DM has an 80% chance of failing his save vs. Destruction even if mathematically, if my odds have generally been between 5-30% on each separate occasion. That's not too shocking however--in any large sample, it would be surprising if there were not sequences of high improbability).

 

[moritheil]

I picked ranged touch attack bonus and save DC for 9th, 10th, and 11th levels (the range the sections roughly span) by making average builds.

I forsee much contention over what constitutes an average build.