Fireball vs Orb - Demonweb Pits Data (no spoilers)

[gnfnrf]

I forsee much contention over what constitutes an average build.

My setup is such that I can rerun the numbers with minimal effort. If you (or anyone else) has save DCs, damages, and ranged touch for orbs and evocations at 9th, 10th, 11th, and (soon) 12th level, I can explain how they change the results.

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gnfnrf

 

[gnfnrf]

Starting at 11th level, you should be looking at empowered orb of force and empowered orb of fire (energy substituted as necessary).

At 9th and 10th levels, you're right that core metamagic doesn't really help the orbs, though it does help evocations and it's not a fair comparison if you don't include that fact.

Rerunning with empowered spells doesn't change the results much. One even encounter goes to favoring the fireball, and one orb encounter goes to a mixed tactics encounter. The rest do not change except in degree. In general, it seems that whichever strategy is better, it is a lot better, and tweaks of the numbers don't change that.

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gnfnrf

 

[Victim]

The fundamental assumption that I have problems with is that all (net) damage is equivalent. The manner in which damage is spread out makes a huge difference in play.

 

[James McMurray]

Would it be possible to change the formulas so that the damage gets rated based on the amount dealt to the creature out of its total hit points? For instance, in an encounter with 3, 40 hit point creatures you do:

1) 20 hit points to each with a fireball. Since this is half their individual totals, it only counts half, meaning you dealt 30 damage effectively.

2) 59 hit points to one with an orb. Since anything over 40 is immaterial, this shot counts only 40 points for the orb.

I think this is slightly weighted in favor of orbs, because dealing half the hit points to 3 creatures in one action should (IMO) be at least the equal of killing one of them, but I can't think of a better method offhand.

 

[gnfnrf]

The fundamental assumption that I have problems with is that all (net) damage is equivalent. The manner in which damage is spread out makes a huge difference in play.

It absolutely does, but how it does is so sensitive to the specific circumstances of the fight that there is no way at all to model for it. In any fight with multiple opponents, there will be times when it is better to deal 2n damage to one rather than n damage to two, and times where it is better to deal n damage to two than 2n to one. However, there is no way to say what the ratio of those times will be, and no way to even know if the PCs will know when those times occur, since they don't know enemy hp totals during play.

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gnfnrf

 

[gnfnrf]

In my quest to avoid being productive, I have run a bunch more data.

I now have 49 encounters from EttDP, though just before the finale. For various reasons I won't discuss to avoid spoilers, I don't think I can get good data from the finale itself.

I also tweaked where the level jumps are; instead of doing it by eye, I actually calculated experience for a four character party by encounter.

With no metamagic, the comparison stands at
Fireball/Lightning Bolt - Preferred in 22 encounters
Energy Orb - Preferred in 20 encounters
Mixed - 3 encounters
Even - 4 encounters

Empowering each spell at the first available lever (as a wizard)
Fireball/Lightning Bolt - Preferred in 27 encounters
Energy Orb - Preferred in 15 encounters
Mixed - 4 encounters
Even - 3 encounters

James, I'm afraid that your idea makes assumptions that don't fit well with the expected damage model I'm using. I think you'd find that even with the orbs, it's very difficult to kill a foe outright, and little damage will be wasted on the first casting of the fight. But, I don't have hard numbers to back that up.

I'm interested in using what I've prepared to test other things. Next, I might compare magic missile to the lesser orbs and see what comes up.

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gnfnrf

 

[Felix]

Looks good to me, and adds even more fuel to my "the balance level on orbs is largely dependent on campaign style" position.

Will this be the same fuel that keeps the Orb of Fire indefinitely burning?

 

[Stalker0]

I think one thing we have to take into account as well is the figher/caster combo. If I kill a guy with an orb, then he's dead, and the fighter goes hacking into another guy for a few rounds. If I damage 3 guys with a fireball, the fighter might be able to finish them off with cleave and kill all 3 in the same round. Things like that can make a big difference.

 

[James McMurray]

Will this be the same fuel that keeps the Orb of Fire indefinitely burning?

Sure, if you happen to be one of the folks that goes with the IMO illogical interpretation that nonmagical fire created by magic doesn't act like nonmagic fire.

 

[Caliban]

Shouldn't a 4th level damage spell be at least slightly better than a 3rd level damage spell?

Although, in my experience the 2nd level scorching Ray spell has been just as effective, if not more so, than the 4th level Orb spells. Especially when Empowered so that it takes up a 4th level slot.

I have a sorcerer who has Magic Missile, Scorching Ray, Fireball, and Force Orb. He uses the best one for the situation - nothing beats force orb for dealing creatures with high SR or fire resistance, nothing clears the mooks out faster than fireball, and Empowered scorch rays drops the hurt on single targets that aren't fire resistant. Magic Missile deals with those creatures that have a very high touch AC.

Mix and match with Sculpt Spell, Empower Spell, and Split Ray as necessary.

But maybe I'm missing the point of this discussion.