>human Bbn5/Ftr1 vs. ogre Ftr1:
Let's make it an ogre Bbn1.
>Human: 5d12+1d10 hp (avg. 37)
>Ogre: 4d8+8+1d10+2 hp (avg. 33.5)
Actually, Human = 12+26+5.5 = 43.5
Ogre = 18+12+5(2) = 40
After this point, the Ogre just gets better compared to the human, because of the Con advantage; he'll pick up 2hp a level.
>Human: BAB +6
>Ogre: BAB +4
Ah, but you aren't mentioning to-hit bonuses. Suppose both throw an 18 into Strength. The human has an 18 strength (maybe 19 at this point). The ogre has a 28 strength.
That's +10 to hit for the human (plus possible weapon focus, magic weapon), but +13 for the ogre.
More importantly, let's check out the greatsword damage. It's 2d6+6 for the human -- average of 13hp. For the ogre, it's 2d8+13 -- average of 22hp. The ogre is doing almost twice as much damage per shot. Or he can just attack one-handed and do 2d6+9 (still more damage than your human fighter) and use a large shield (making his AC even more insane).
Human saves: Fort +6, Ref +1, Will +1
Ogre saves: Fort +8, Ref +0, Will +1
>Human: 5 feats
>Ogre: 2 feats
I think that the Ogre would get a feat as an ogre, and then a feat for starting up as a PC. If he were a 1st level fighter, he'd have three feats, I believe. People play it differently, though.
>Human: 45 skill points, wide range of class skills
>Ogre: 5 skill points, poor range of skills
Well, the Ogre can throw points into Spot and Listen with his ogre points, which isn't bad. The Int hit is going to be painful, admittedly. But who needs skills when you're a meat shield? You've got a rogue, right?
>Human speed: 40 ft.
>Ogre speed: 40 ft.
Now it's 50ft for the ogre. Ouch.
>Human abilities: rage, uncanny dodge (retain Dex bonus to AC, can't be flanked)
>Ogre: +10 Str, +4 Con (already figured into hp and saves, so the only remaining benefit is Con checks and the Concentration skill), +5 natural armor, reach
The Ogre now has Rage and will get an uncanny dodge in one lousy level. And you didn't do the damage calculation, which is hardly trivial.
>I'd say that the ogre's not really looking clearly better here. Add in the fact that a 7th-level wizard could just polymorph the human into an ogre for all the bennies and none of the minuses, and you've got a pretty serious case for the human. Note also that while the ogre has a pretty serious +9 melee attack bonus compared to the human's +6, the human gets two iterative attacks using the full attack action, and can rage to even the odds a bit.
The ogre has a better chance to hit and does almost twice as much damage per hit, while having an armor class that is on average +3 better (-1 size, -1 dex, +5 natural). As he levels he'll gradually have more hp than the human. Three levels out of five he'll have as many iterative attacks as the human. And lord, when the ogre barbarian rages . . . well, things just start DYING.
The problem with the poly suggestion is that it makes them the average of the species; the ogre PC has a strength of 28; the human fighter-turned-ogre won't get much more buff at all. Also, the Ogre PC can have an above average dex by putting a good stat in there -- the human that was polymorphed into an ogre will be stuck with an 8 Dex.
Admittedly, at higher levels if your DM lets you poly folks into Stone Giants or Trolls, being an Ogre PC is a little silly. I don't allow it in my campaign, but again, YMMV.
>I'd say ogres are fine at ECL +5.
I don't see how you can ignore the fact that the ogre hits more often and does an extra 7 or 8 points of damage a hit, while being harder to hit on his own. ECL +5 is close . . . and it's probably not worth it if everyone can just walk around as a Troll or Stone Giant . . . but if they can't, I really think ECL of +6 or +7 is fairer.