Kai Lord said:
All of them. My Kagonesti wild elf isn't a big fan of the Silvanesti that invaded his homeland. As for them, they're fighting for their very kingdom, and everyone knows how the mission is most likely to end up anyway.
Very heroic.
Just a little earlier no one could conceive of my guy surviving to round two.
I had you pegged at 3-5 rounds originally. Not even dragons react instantaneously. I just don't think you will have more than 1-2 rounds with a clear shot.
Now one of the most respected rules gurus here concedes that his decoy trick could buy him up to ten rounds. 10 rounds. He can do something in 10 rounds.
Yeah, miss a lot.
Like you said, the dragon won't even bother with an insignifant gnat like me until I do significant damage. And significant damage means he's making a Fort save. This "1 in a 100,000" just became 1 in 20.
I meant it's about one chance in a 100,000 that you will hit, crit, roll nearly max damage, and he will roll a 1.
It's about 1 in 20 that you will hit him. And even with 10 rounds to try, it's about 1 in 100 that you will crit.
Once that happens the griffons scatter and I've got about ten rounds to make another critical.
Your assuming you make a first critical.
He crits on a 19-20, and since he'll most likely get somebody in the elven high court to enchant the hell out of his bow he should be able to hit with a 19, maybe an 18. At 480' he's only firing at -4.
Remember that the 40 AC is the
minimum AC. Any sorcerer worthy of the name will have the
shield spell in their collection, and that goes double for a dragon. (
magic missiles are one of the few spells that can consistently hurt them until they get their spell resistance.)
Even if you get GMW +5 cast on both your bow and your arrows, that's still only a +7 increase to your attack roll. Even if you didn't have the -4 from range, the
shield spell would negate that.
I still think you are only going to hit on a natural 20.
10 rounds to get another lucky hit in and force a Fort save. It can happen. Theoretically.
You seem to be assuming that if you roll a natural 20 and hit him, that you will also confirm that crit. That's a very big if.
Even if you do Crit, you are rolling 4d8+12 (with your own abilities). 50+ is not guaranteed, because average damage is only around 30 points. Now if you manage to get the GMW +5 on both your arrows and the bow, then any crit will most likely do at least 50 points. (4d8+40 damage)
And then he only fails his fort save on a natural 1.
It's just not likely, but more power to you.
Obviously this endeavor will most likely turn into a "the caca hits the fan" experience, but that in and of itself might be cool to roleplay. I can see potential for all kinds of cinematic dynamics, like the last griffon rider swooping down to get him as they race the dragon back to the castle, their only hope to take their chances with the Dragon Orb... Who knows.
Just better hope he doesn't have
teleport.
3e dragons are much more powerful than they were when Dragonlance was originally written.