D&D 4E Hasbro, Greyhawk, and 4E speculation

[Sanguinemetaldawn]

It might not have been the pertinent question, but its a lot more fun.

I suppose so. Dunno really.
That unavoidably shades into which designers do you prefer, and becomes a matter of opinion.

Personally, though I am an American, I like that Brit influence, you've got Warhammer, Mongoose with Conan and the like, and things in that direction. Or maybe some kind of Troll Lords/Paizo/Necromancer combine as well as that Brit influence.

This, of course, assumes I am not a candidate

 

[William Ronald]

Well, if I win an insane amount in the lottery, I might be tempted to join in a buyout of WotC from Hasbro. Mind you, this is a situation that is about as likely as my gaining Superman's powers -- or a version of Greyhawk that all fans will agree on.

Mind you, I hope that a new edition would have considerable play testing and electronic support.

 

[arscott]

Sanguine, there's no way in hell it's going to a game publisher. It took a company of White Wolf's stature to get ahold of the Ravenloft license. Nobody's big enough to Get the entire game.

Alternately, what if Hasbro is selling WotC altogether? You did say that they've reaquired the rights to Magic.

Finally, I have to say that this is the most intelligent and insightful 4e speculation I've seen since I joined these boards.

(although that's not saying much.)

 

[William Ronald]

Sanguine, there's no way in hell it's going to a game publisher. It took a company of White Wolf's stature to get ahold of the Ravenloft license. Nobody's big enough to Get the entire game.

Alternately, what if Hasbro is selling WotC altogether? You did say that they've reaquired the rights to Magic.

Finally, I have to say that this is the most intelligent and insightful 4e speculation I've seen since I joined these boards.

(although that's not saying much.)

There was a thread sometime back mentioning that the value of the Dungeons and Dragons line was perhaps $30 million ot $35 million, and a poster said that he heard a rumor that Hasbro was looking for a buyer. Adkison and a few backers might have sufficient resources to buy either the D&D line or WotC.

The speculation here is very polite, and thoughtful. So, let's maintain this tone.

 

[Alzrius]

And just as a new edition is not something you would want to announce because of its effect on sales, you wouldn't want to announce something is for sale either. It creates a "deathwatch" mentality, people will assume things will change, your sales will drop, diminishing any income you would have recieved before the actual sale.

I disagree. When a new edition is planned, then yes, announcing it ahead of time can hurt sales, but I think announcing the death of a product line can do the opposite. Saying that something is going to die off forever encourages people to buy while they can; that if they don't act now they may get another chance. Sales are stimulated before the line dies.

 

[Sanguinemetaldawn]

Sanguine, there's no way in hell it's going to a game publisher. It took a company of White Wolf's stature to get ahold of the Ravenloft license. Nobody's big enough to Get the entire game.

I can see where you are coming from, but I am not so sure.
If a solid publisher has a proven track record at sufficient consistent income levels, and if they can convince a bank that they can run the biggest name in the industry/genre at a consistent profit, it could happen. But yeah, unlikely, as I said.

Alternately, what if Hasbro is selling WotC altogether? You did say that they've reaquired the rights to Magic.

They have re-acquired all electronic entertainment rights to the MTG property from Infogrames/Atari, which Infogrames bought back in 2000 (on a 15 year contract?) Not sure, but it was a long contract. Same with their other properties.

I think the reason they went after the rights to Magic is related to one thing: Magic Online. My impression is that M:TG O has effectively usurped traditional M:TG in terms of profitability and so forth. My only evidence is anecdotal, but it makes sense on a lot of levels.

Re-acquiring those rights would be the first step in expanding the success of Magic Online to other electronic arenas. How about a Magic Online game for the Xbox360, that Timmy could buy virtual cards for and play against his friend Johnny during summer vacation?

Or better yet, the equivalent for Pokemon or Yu-Gi-Oh. And also...not necessarily along the card buying model. An alternate model:

...the Madden franchise. Madden sports games are a license to print money. Yeah you tweak the graphics a little. Yeah you alter the stats a little and a few players retire. Give me a break. Its the same damn game as the year before, and people buy it all over again.

Now instead of player updates, how about card updates. Every year there are New Cards! New Strategies! Blah Blah Blah!

I think Hasbro will separate the CCG aspects of WotC from the RPG aspects, and sell or cut the RPG component.

The mindset of publicly held corporations end up the same: consistent profit revenue is king. The Board answers to stockholders, and stockholders want one thing: Show Me The Money! Thats why they put their money in, in the first place. And Hasbro bought Wizards because of Pokemon. Period. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just kidding themselves.

If the electronic aspect of D&D is making them no money (which it can't since Infogrames holds the rights forever), all thats left is the PnP and other merchandising side including: minis. I presently nuture the suspicion that minis are the only real hope that the current Hasbro/ WotC/D&D paradigm will hold. And there is a finite lifespan on that too.

My probable model is this:

Everything will continue quietly as it has for some indefinite period of time. My guess: 6 -15 months. We'll keep seeing these asinine 4E threads pop-up during this time. Then BAM! everything will change overnight. The tipping point will be when the RPG division has had 2 or 3 consecutive break even or money losing quarters, and they take one big loss on something.

Thats when Hasbro corporate will decide to cut it loose, and sell the thing off. First they shut it down, so their expenses drop to zero, and then they sell the property, take that profit to pad the botton line that quarter, and don't look back.

Finally, I have to say that this is the most intelligent and insightful 4e speculation I've seen since I joined these boards.

(although that's not saying much.)

true enough, but thanks.

Another thing to keep in mind is that all of this necessarily can only be speculation. Until we get access to Hasbro's internal accounting or conference minutes (HAHAHAHAHA! AhhHAHAHAHA! sure!) all we have to go on are these external indications.

Stronger (contrary) evidence would certainly alter this picture.

One reason I am wary of WotC's proclamations about D&D is the announcement a while back about "D&D has never been doing better." It had a "he doth protest too much" feeling to it (at least to me). A feeling that he was trying to justify his existence.

Also, what makes anyone think Hasbro is gonna tell WotC the truth? If you were going to liquidate an entire division, would you jauntily inform them of it? Actually, one good indicator of this would be the way Hasbro handled this before. Anyone know how much notice Monte, SKReyn, Valterra and so on got?
I wouldn't be surprised if they were informed on the day of their termination. I'd really be interested in knowing how this was handled. I also wonder if they are under a contractual obligation to not to discuss their termination, which would also be a definite red flag.

 

[William Ronald]

You might be able to glean some insights from Monte Cook, who just posted at http://www.enworld.org/showthread.php?t=148452&page=3

 

[francisca]

I'm very much in a "who cares" mode about the future of D&D. I could never buy another RPG product at all, and game the rest of my life quite happily. Mearls was dead right when he said the fanbase doesn't need publishers. Hell, with the SRD intact, OGL-based RPGs can continue on forever. I've pretty much had my run with 3.X as a DM anyway, and I'm very unlikely to follow D&D into 4e.

Besides, threads just like this one, concerning the eventual spinning off of the D&D brand are nothing new. Neither is any of the speculation.

The one issue I am concerned about is what would happen to the arrangement Kenzer has with WotC in regards to the AD&D material it uses as a foundation for Hackmaster. I'm concerned because HM is a hoot, and the D-team and staff are all great guys (as are many other publishers). I'd hate to see the rug yanked out from underneath them.

Having said that, here are some predictions:

4e will be more akin to the D&D miniatures game than the current edition. There is just too much potential money to be made by tying it to randomly packaged minis. A marketing campaign, touting D&D's return to it's miniatures wargaming roots, will be mounted. Many will decry the end of roleplaying, then realize that the roleplay part of D&D was always what they made of it anyway. I predict this will happen (meaning 4e released) prior to September 2009, if Hasbro keeps it, post 2010 if someone like FanPro or Whizkids end up with the license.

 

[Sanguinemetaldawn]

I disagree. When a new edition is planned, then yes, announcing it ahead of time can hurt sales, but I think announcing the death of a product line can do the opposite. Saying that something is going to die off forever encourages people to buy while they can; that if they don't act now they may get another chance. Sales are stimulated before the line dies.

Hmmm, that is a believable flip side, but that would have to function under the concept of a commodity I would think. That is, a sustained demand and perception (or reality) of diminished supply, leading to an increase in demand.

The question then becomes, under such a scenario, would these products be seen as commodities that people will acquire because of scarcity? Personally, I doubt it. There are cases where I could see it.

Prepainted minis of widely needed rares - absolutely
Modules - to a certain degree yes, there is a track record
Rules and Setting supplements - I don't think so

Consider settings: The setting re-released and all the stuff you just bought is rendered invalid/obsolete.

Consider rules: same thing.

Especially rules...rules supplements are inseparable from mechanics. Setting can retain value. For example, if, as part of the announcement, it was announced that Eberron is being closed down, and will never be produced again, oh yeah, Eberron stuff will sell out. Forgotten Realms? Nope. Sales will end up as dead as can be. That would be the nth iteration.


But then there is another issue...corporate perception and expectations. What if the Minis line was going permanently out of production, and Eberron? I think a final round of profit could be made.

But what of the suits say that isn't their model? By the time they are thinking about selling something, they are in a "cut our losses, maximize return" mentality already. They may see it as a needless risk and veto it.

 

[jeffh]

Anyone know how much notice Monte, SKReyn, Valterra and so on got? I wouldn't be surprised if they were informed on the day of their termination. I'd really be interested in knowing how this was handled. I also wonder if they are under a contractual obligation to not to discuss their termination, which would also be a definite red flag.

While quite a few people did get laid off, those specific three left of their own free will, if memory serves. I'm certain Monte did and 99% sure Valtera did, at any rate; less so Reynolds.