HD-DVD is Dead (was: First Signs of Blu-Ray Dominance)

Mallus said:
The idea is that more people will buy when there's a single format. Sounds reasonable to me.

*If* prices are reasonable....which they're not, currently....though HDDVD is a little better priced. They're both still very expensive for the majority of people.

Maybe by end of 2008 though?

Banshee
 

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Mallus said:
The idea is that more people will buy when there's a single format. Sounds reasonable to me.

Definetly, but even if sales increase 400% over the next year, that's what, 10% of the market? Until the HD tv's and such are out there, and people want to pay the money for the stuff, it's gonna be second fiddle.

My boss went in to buy DVD's, and accidentelly bought two regular, 1 HD-DVD and 1 Bluray. He had no clue what they were, and I don't think either studio is doing a great job of informing the uninformed about the actual advantages. A single format will help, but screaming "it looks better! No, Really!" doesn't really get the message out there to the normal folks.

So, lets say in 5 years Bluray has 50% of the market for new sales. In that 5 years, there will be so many advances in storage that the format will be outdated. Once a cable company or internet company delivers an easy interface for "turn on your TV, buy a movie, own it forever!" and they can deliver it for less than Bluray...
 

Banshee16 said:
*If* prices are reasonable....which they're not, currently....though HDDVD is a little better priced. They're both still very expensive for the majority of people.

Maybe by end of 2008 though?
By the end 0f '08, all the HD equipment will cost much less. And the discs will come down in price over time, too. DVDs were about the same prices as BR/HD-DVDs are now in the first couple years.
 

Vocenoctum said:
The studio's have already been doing digital downloads for the 360, including those publishing on Bluray, so not a huge hurdle. The real hurdle is the fact you're usually renting the properties rather than owning.

I've been checking this out, since the last update, and it's neat. I haven't tried downloading one yet, because I find the selection very limited. There's not really anything I feel like downloading at the moment. I don't have a Media Center PC....I'm just using Zune to stream songs and pictures, though the Zune device isn't for sale in Canada yet.

I suspect that in time they'll change to allow people the option to download and keep content. However, that will be limited by the 360's hard drive. It would be nice if there was an easy way to buy the bigger hard drive, and then transfer your content (saved games, etc.) over, but as I understand it, it's not easy to do.

I know Media Center PCs have a much greater selection of media you can get through your XBox, but the 360 hadn't been launched when I bought my OS for my PC, and I didn't see a use for Media Center at the time. And I'm not sure about buying a new XP ME disc because I just hate setting up the OS all over again.

Banshee
 

John Crichton said:
By the end 0f '08, all the HD equipment will cost much less. And the discs will come down in price over time, too. DVDs were about the same prices as BR/HD-DVDs are now in the first couple years.

I'm noticing this on some discs already. I'm thinking of picking up Batman Begins and the Last Samurai on HDDVD, as they're both $20 at Future Shop, which is pretty good. I have noticed the prices creeping up though, as they're doing more and more dual format discs, which they charge more for.

Banshee
 

Vocenoctum said:
Definetly, but even if sales increase 400% over the next year, that's what, 10% of the market? Until the HD tv's and such are out there, and people want to pay the money for the stuff, it's gonna be second fiddle.
I expect the US standard changing to HD in Feb 2009 will push awareness and the public in general to start getting new equipment. Not everyone, of course. But this will be the chance for many people to learn and upgrade. As it stands now, HD stuff is flying off the shelves. Not at DVD rates, but HD isn't for everyone just yet. It needs to come down in price.

Vocenoctum said:
So, lets say in 5 years Bluray has 50% of the market for new sales. In that 5 years, there will be so many advances in storage that the format will be outdated. Once a cable company or internet company delivers an easy interface for "turn on your TV, buy a movie, own it forever!" and they can deliver it for less than Bluray...
That holds true for any new media. So far, it hasn't happened and there are just as many problems with that kind of imagitech (rights, distribution fees, storage, playback, etc) than there is with discs, which have always sold well.
 

Banshee16 said:
I suspect that in time they'll change to allow people the option to download and keep content. However, that will be limited by the 360's hard drive. It would be nice if there was an easy way to buy the bigger hard drive, and then transfer your content (saved games, etc.) over, but as I understand it, it's not easy to do.

Yeah, chalk it up to something else MS really needs to alter. They need a USB connected Hard Drive. (Unless of course you can already use a Mybook or whatever with the 360, then screw me, I'm just out of the loop. :)

As for "keep forever", I think it's just a matter of studio's not wanting it to impact "real" DVD sales, but that is just another short sighted side effect of the studios.
 

Banshee16 said:
I'm noticing this on some discs already. I'm thinking of picking up Batman Begins and the Last Samurai on HDDVD, as they're both $20 at Future Shop, which is pretty good. I have noticed the prices creeping up though, as they're doing more and more dual format discs, which they charge more for.

Banshee
Yup, the same stuff that was $35 a year ago is now available for $15-20.
 

Vocenoctum said:
Once a cable company or internet company delivers an easy interface for "turn on your TV, buy a movie, own it forever!" and they can deliver it for less than Bluray...

The only thing I am leery about with respect to downloadable content is the bandwidth. I shudder to think of how much bandwidth will get used downloading movies. Many providers I know in Canada throttle bandwidth usage, so you get X amount of downloading for your monthly service fee. Go over it, and you pay extra. How quickly will people hit those limits if they're downloading high-def movies? And how long will downloading movies take? Try to download a 30 gig file......especially if you have a wireless network, it's not quick.

The XBox wireless adapter, for instance, does B+G or A. But B+G channels are slower. A's really quick, but routers that broadcast over that channel are hard to find in North America, easier to find in Europe. And now in North America, I'm starting to see the N channel routers, which are also fast.....but the XBox wireless adapter isn't compatible with it (I have no idea if the PS3 is compatible with it either).

Banshee
 

Vocenoctum said:
Yeah, chalk it up to something else MS really needs to alter. They need a USB connected Hard Drive. (Unless of course you can already use a Mybook or whatever with the 360, then screw me, I'm just out of the loop. :)

As for "keep forever", I think it's just a matter of studio's not wanting it to impact "real" DVD sales, but that is just another short sighted side effect of the studios.

I'm thinking that whether they make $30 on selling a DVD, or on allowing someone to download and keep a file, it's still $30. From their perspective, as long as the anti-piracy technology is strong enough, it shouldn't matter whether it's a disc or a download.

I *think* that the 360 *can* support a USB connected hard drive....but *only* for viewing movies, pics, and music that you've loaded onto the hard drive in advance from your PC. You can't use it for saved games, content downloaded from Marketplace etc. Keep in mind, I *think* this is the case, but I'm not 100% sure.

Banshee
 

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