How many Survives?

[Brother MacLaren]

That's not the point - the point is it throws off any sort of calculation for how many npc's survive to 20th level. The real point is that it is impossible to calculate this with any sort of reliability as way too many assumptions need to be made.

My point is that you *can* generally say that it's a very small number that make it to level 20. Given the way the XP tables work, you need a few thousand easy fights or a few hundred moderate fights to reach level 20. And everybody you defeated had in turn defeated many other foes. Exact numbers? No. The best we can do is show order of magnitude and how various assumptions affect the total. But I think that's relevant and interesting.

This is something that always bothered me about the DMG demographics, with their absurd proliferation of high-level NPCs; what quests did these NPCs have to do to get there? What are their stories? How many orcs tribes did they have to wipe out? What other foes did they defeat? How many NPCs died along the way? Where did they travel?

And I think you can say with some certainty that reconciling the DMG demographics with the XP charts requires an immense amount of very stupid cannon fodder out there, or the odd assumption that most fights are non-lethal. (Non-lethal victories shouldn't always gain full XP either; if the drow assassins successfully flee from you and kill their target, then you've failed.)

 

[Goolpsy]

Right, my calculations assume that no NPC dies.

The problem of making this calculation any more broad (to include chance of dieing, etc) is simple: How often would such a party of NPCs only come across one foe, and that foe is exactly CR = Lvl-2?

Highly Campaign, specific, right?

If ONE SINGLE npc were to adventure alone... he should fight monsters with a CR = level-2 to get a strong a challenge as a party with 4 Members get when fighting a Foe with CR = Level

Btw.. this might not be easily calculated.. it has alot of variables.. a program or some dude with no life and LOTS of dice might come with the best suggestion..

 

[Saohesc]

A relatively peaceful setting will have folks exposed to fewer experience-producing events, while a less generally peaceful setting will expose folks to more experience-producing events.

Kenobi65 also pointed out that in a more violent campaign, there would be a higher mortality rate among NPC's.
I think that it is a simple relationship between the stress on NPC's in the game. When you have a peaceful setting (as we seem to have been assuming for the most part), you basically get a lot of weak 1st level NPC's.. and the population of NPC's representing each higher level slowly decreases until there are very few of 20th level.
With a more violent or stressful setting, however, many would-be weak NPC's die, and some simply end up surviving--I think this creates more high-level NPC's, and I think that is what justifies the proliferation of high-level NPC's you see in the DMG. Many settings are not completely peaceful.

 

[Brother MacLaren]

Essentially, the problem is that your odds of surviving enough battles to get to 20th level are infintesimal. If you have battles with the odds heavily in your favor, you need to fight more of them. If the odds are only somewhat in your favor, you're still likely to die before getting to 20.

Look at Nail's example: a party of four fighting a single foe equal to their level per day. Getting to rest, refresh, etc. They need 1393 such fights to get to 20. For the sake of this calculation, we'll give them full XP for every encounter they survive and assume free raise dead with no level loss as long as it's not a TPK. Figure there's maybe a 99% chance of them winning each fight or escaping without a TPK; then there's a 1 in 1.2 million chance they can make it to 20 without a TPK. (Are your PCs capable of beating a CR +2 encounter more than 1% of the time?) Tiny odds, and that's with the odds hideously stacked in their favor and a 99% chance of surviving every fight.

 

[Goolpsy]

Sure Pc's are able to beat CR + 2 encounters... but npc's aren't players.. and you can't expect the same from them.
In a 'hard' and tough campaign.. more people will die... as you said leaving alot of high nps's there BUT... those dead still count against... How many npc's does it take for 1 of them reaching level 20...

So in a tough campaign.. this number will be bigger.. it will take alot more npc's before one gets level 20.. as they all die all the time.