thecasualoblivion
First Post
They lost people at 3e, they lost people at 2e, and they lost Dialgo back in 1975. One need only look around the 1e/2e/OD&D tagged threads to see the truth.
Fourth edition has truly divided the community in ways both foreseen and unforeseen. While we knew there would be hold-outs (those that would descend into grogonard status along with 3e as the market dwindled) no one foresaw Pathfinder, the Retro-clones, and a sudden resurgence of pre-2000 edition D&D. The community, which remained mostly 3e-based (with occasional earlier edition hold-outs fluttering in) broke seven-ways to Sunday. Everyone, it seemed, had an opinion of what Fourth Edition should have looked like, and it seems that Real 4e didn't satisfy a lot of them. The dissatisfaction of many (be it because of mechanics, fluff, or presentation) left a large whole that a lot of other games sought to fill. Some attempted alternate evolutions of 3e (Pathfinder) or 2e/1e (C&C), while others sought to recapture or re concept former glories (retro clones and actual retro games).
While the 1e/2e -> 3e was no cakewalk, the market didn't splinter. It broke exactly as predicted; some stayed in older editions, some upgraded, and some stopped playing. OGL though, for all its wonders, brought D&D the ability to splinter off into so many factions of people believing their version is the most legitimate. (In that regard, OGL was D&D's own worst enemy; it created its own competition).
You can blame it on any number of things, but 4e failed to galvanize the community like 3e did (at least in the beginning).
This is both true and misleading IMO. While I feel its true that the D&D community has splintered to a degree, I still say a comfortable majority has switched to 4E.