Sanguinemetaldawn said:
2.5 years is enough time for the new edition to be released, and be given plenty of time to try (and fail). It will fail because:
1) I am not shelling out for a new edition. I have enough editions.
2) Many people are refusing to buy 4E, because they are waiting for 4.5E
3) Sources keep saying the hobby is shrinking. I have no evidence whatsoever for this, but I don't see why the people saying this would lie
4) The D&D market is splintering between editions. Everytime a new edition is released, some people are left behind. See #1
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1 - You, me, my son... to say the game is going to fail because you won't be buying it is a drop of water in a nice sized pond... as an individual you won't be missed.
2 - People refusing to buy 4e because they are waiting for 4.5e? First time I've heard this one
3 - I'd agree the market is shrinking based on anecdotal evidence... I also have no direct or personal evidence of this
4 - Every time an edition is released some people are left behind, and some people get brought in by the hype... the question becomes "can you keep the new fan base and still cater to the fan base that came from the old edition?"
The release of 4e is definitely timed to pump sales from WotC that have been declining. Whether the new edition will be a significant improvement on the old one is anyone's guess at the moment.
As for predicting the demise of D&D in 2 1/2 years... ain't gonna happen. Sales will bump enough from the 4e release to cover those 2 1/2 years of sales... by the time the bottom line starts sliding 4.5e will be on the horizon.
Additionally, we are forgetting the Digital Initiative. Even if just 10% of the D&D market signs up for online play you now have a significant monthly cash flow at a very high profit margin. If they open up the DI to D20 / OGL gaming they could probably increase that cash flow at very little cost to WotC.
4e will live or die with the DI IMHO. Therein lies the profits that WotC will need to prove their worth to Hasbro.