Is it time for 5E?

[Alaxk Knight of Galt]

Here is a big question when 5E does hit: What happens to the current 4E DDi stuff?

Personally, I think WotC would kill the majority of it (Character Builder, Monster Builder, Compendium) in an effort to drive consumers to the latest edition.

 

[Mercurius]

You mean the edition to make oD&D, 1E, 2E and 3E fans equally unhappy? I don't think that there would be beauty in that frankenstein monster. "Crap, i didn't factor weapon speed into Golden Wyvern!"

I hate to say it, but WotC doesn't care about making OD&D, 1E, 2E, 3E (and not to mention BECMI) fans equally happy or unhappy. Everyone pre-3E combined is probably a relatively small percentage of the player base, even smaller in terms of what they buy.

The real key would be to make both 3E and 4E fans happy and attract a new generation of players. Quite frankly I'm not sure that WotC currently has the creative juices for it.

"One game to find them,
One game to bind them..."

I do not believe such a game exists, that it existed at all was a heppenstance of history and circumstance and sundered elements will never again unite in the way they once did. Unless they invent the holodeck.

Maybe, maybe not. I think it is possible but would be very, very difficult to do. One can dream, though...

That could be done in 4e as it stands with some effort on Wizards part. If they want to make the effort.

Yes, and the fact that it hasn't happened is one of the reasons that I question the "creative juices" of WotC. Of course the Hero Builder's Guidebook brings a ray of hope.

I would not either but they could put that out with 5e announced. I think also we will see some more experimental books in the Book of 9 Swords style before 5e will be announced, probably something with classless D&D.

Maybe, but that sort of approach has been proven to be un-lucrative. My sense is that they'll feel things out with Hero Builder's and then if that takes off, expand from there.

One thing that no one seems to be taking into account, or at least mentioning, is that WotC itself may not know when 5E will come out. Or rather, it probably depends upon various factors, what the profit trajectory is, etc. They could be thinking 3-5 years, depending upon sales in the next 1-2. If sales dip precipitously in 2011 and don't come back up in early 2012, we could get a 5E announcement at GenCon of that year then 5E in 2013. If things improve or at least plateau a bit, that could be pushed back another year or two.

However, I thing 3 years is too soon, I thin 5 years is the minimum and here is why: It will take 3 years to create a fully integratred suite of DDI tools and at least 2 years of observation to see how people use them.
In that 2 years they can develop the new tools to support 5e. When that toolset is nearly ready then they announce 5e for a years time.

I think that they are now capacity constrained in software develoopment and while the can output stuff for the current game and develope a new game in 3 years I am not convinced that they can develope new tools for the existing game and tools for the new game at the same time. Hell, it is not obvious right now that they can complete the development process for the tools in the existing game right now.
A 5e with no eTools having gone as far as they have gone with etools for 4e is pretty much unthinkable, and would have very little credibility.

It may be that DDI right now will form the basis for 5E DDI, that we will start to see transition products like Book of Nine Swords was from 3.5 to 4E. As many have said, 5E may not be so distinctly marked as "5E". It might be a more gradual transition through continual updates and changes to DDI. Eventually they will want to make a big announcement and a new line of core books, but they might sneak up on us a bit.

Especially as they have demonstrated the interest in the marketplace. Failure to deliver would certainly open the door for others to succed where they have failed.

Yes, as we saw with Pathfinder.

 

[CleverNickName]

It may be that DDI right now will form the basis for 5E DDI, that we will start to see transition products like Book of Nine Swords was from 3.5 to 4E. As many have said, 5E may not be so distinctly marked as "5E". It might be a more gradual transition through continual updates and changes to DDI. Eventually they will want to make a big announcement and a new line of core books, but they might sneak up on us a bit.

Hey, that would be fine with me. As others have pointed out, 3rd Edition didn't have "3rd Edition" written anywhere on the covers of its Core Rulebooks...and different edition numbers weren't as ubiquitous then as they are now. Putting "5th Edition" on the cover would be a very bad idea, IMO.

It can look like a duck, and walk like a duck, and sound like a duck...but for the love of Pelor, don't call it a duck!

Still though, I wouldn't be surprised if a 5E announcement (or a surge of sweeping "updates" on DDI) happens later this year, possibly around GenCon. It probably won't happen...but I wouldn't be surprised if it did...

 

[UngainlyTitan]

The problem with the belief that the company can design both a game system and software to support it at the same time is it is naive. Too much is in flux about the game design up until the game goes to print.

I am not entirely convinced that htis is so. If it is then you have more than doubled the development cycle for 5e by adding software tov the mix.

Sure, you can architect a skeleton knowing the expected role of the application, but the details drive the detailed design. Those fiddly bits take a lot more time to build, test, and verify than the skeleton does. Those details aren't completely available until the game goes gold.

In effect, its the mirror image of why strategy guides for PC games are obsolete before they're on the shelves of the store -- the game changes too much between when the guide was researched, written, and sent to print and it appears on the shelf.

At best, WotC can use 4e's debugged skeleton for the apps. It'll probably require data model change and the whole guts replaced and that'll set the user community back to being beta testers all over again.

So am I to take it that you do not see a 5e ever, or are you saying that WoTC will abandon the software support for the edition?

 

[UngainlyTitan]

Maybe, but that sort of approach has been proven to be un-lucrative. My sense is that they'll feel things out with Hero Builder's and then if that takes off, expand from there.

Could you elaborate on this? I was under the impression that BO9S and Uneathed Arcana were sucessful books.

One thing that no one seems to be taking into account, or at least mentioning, is that WotC itself may not know when 5E will come out. Or rather, it probably depends upon various factors, what the profit trajectory is, etc. They could be thinking 3-5 years, depending upon sales in the next 1-2. If sales dip precipitously in 2011 and don't come back up in early 2012, we could get a 5E announcement at GenCon of that year then 5E in 2013. If things improve or at least plateau a bit, that could be pushed back another year or two.

I doubt also if there is a date pencilled in for 5e but I also doubt it is as responsive to the market as you are making out here. I am also dobutful that 5e is salable in the next 2 to 3 years.

It may be that DDI right now will form the basis for 5E DDI, that we will start to see transition products like Book of Nine Swords was from 3.5 to 4E. As many have said, 5E may not be so distinctly marked as "5E". It might be a more gradual transition through continual updates and changes to DDI. Eventually they will want to make a big announcement and a new line of core books, but they might sneak up on us a bit.

That is pretty much my expectation, they will dervisify 4e with more stuff like Gamma World, Ravenloft and boardgames and setting specific rpgs, using the 4e engine and some card driven mechanics.

 

[Festivus]

I am thinking that WoTC is done with versions, so we will never see 5.0 come out. A new D&D game will come out, but it will be something like "D&D - Fantastic Journeys" or something like that.

 

[Alaxk Knight of Galt]

I doubt also if there is a date pencilled in for 5e but I also doubt it is as responsive to the market as you are making out here. I am also dobutful that 5e is salable in the next 2 to 3 years.

What's a new Edition. I think if we define what a new Edition is we can accurately estimate when the next edition will come out based on WotC's DnD publishing history. This is a guess, but I wager that the core books tend to be the best selling DnD books and WotC wants to reap that core Edition windfall as often as possible..

For my buck, a new edition is created upon the release of a new core PHB, DMG, and MM.

In 2000, we got the 3rd Edition PHB, DMG, and MM.
In 2003, we got 3.5's core three.
In 2008, we got 4th Editions core three.
In 2010, we got Essential's core books (two Player Handbooks - Fallen Lands and Forgotten Kingdoms -, the DMG, and the Monster Vault).

If we use the gap between 3.5 and 4 to estimate the gap between 4.5/Essentials and 5, we can guess that 5th will be along in 4-6 years (2014-2016).

If we say Essentials is not an Edition release and keep the 4-6 years between Editions, 2012-2014 is likely for 5E.

Both times WotC has developed a core edition, they spent three years on it (97-00 and 05-08). Using that logic and the possible release ranges, you can make an educated guess on when work on 5E has or will begin.

For my buck, I'm wagering that work on 4E began in 2010 for a 2013 release.

 

[Dungeoneer]

There's no point in rolling out a new edition until the community is substantially saturated with the previous edition. If most people are still playing 4e games and buying 4e products it's too early to make a new edition as this will simply alienate people who are still playing 4e.

Ideally, WotC would announce 5e juuuuuust as the serious fans are starting to get a little bored with 4e. That point hasn't been reached yet and I don't think it will be for another year at least.

FWIW, I also believe that 5e will not go by that name. They'll pick some catchy marketing title like "Dungeons and Dragons: Evolution."

 

[Chainsaw Mage]

I am thinking that WoTC is done with versions, so we will never see 5.0 come out. A new D&D game will come out, but it will be something like "D&D - Fantastic Journeys" or something like that.

Yep. And that will be 5th edition.

 

[Diamond Cross]

I say we should start talking about 8th Edition.

I'm gonna make the claim now that there'll never be a 9th edition.

Why?

Because seven eight nine.

And I'm sure there'll never be a thirteenth edition. Who wants that kind of curse hanging over their head. Might as well be 12A Edition. We just can't have the number thirteen in any of the edition because for all we know when people buy that edition they'll be dropping left and right. It's the hardiest of Satanic curses you'll ever see, you see. For the curse of the number thirteen have been with us for at least two millenia, and probably beyond.

And we know that if there's a thirty second edition then you should never buy that either. Because there is a 32 conspiracy that is being perpetrated by the government. If you buy the 32nd edition you'll be in support of Fascism. So those who love freedom and individuality will never buy the 32nd Edition.

And then we have to worry about the revelations that Numerology will give us. Because numbers have secrets and as you can see each edition will have their secret numerological connection in some way shape or form.

Here are some lucky numbers from numerology to consider when it comes to the editions to also avoid the Satanic curse of the number thirteen:

Some lucky number combinations include:

• 99 — doubly long in time, hence eternal; used in the name of a popular Chinese-American supermarket chain, 99 Ranch Market.
• 168 — road of prosperity or to be prosperous together literal translation is "continuing to be wealthy"— many premium-pay telephone numbers in China begin with this number. It is also the name of a motel chain in China (Motel 168).
• 518 — I will prosper, other variations include: 5189 (I will prosper for a long time), 516289 (I will get on a long, smooth prosperous road) and 5918 (I will soon prosper)
• 814 — Similar to 168, this means "be wealthy, entire life". 148 also implies the same meaning "entire life be wealthy".
• 888 — Three times the prosperity, means "wealthy wealthy wealthy". (E.g., the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing were designated by the Chinese officials to begin on the most auspicious date possible to ensure the success of the Games for its hosts: August 8, 2008—on the 8th day, of the 8th month in the 8th year of the new millennium.)
• 1314 — whole lifetime, existence.
• 289 — This combination is quite straight forward: ease in finding enough luck/fortune and holding it for a long time. (2 is easy, 8 is fortune, 9 is enough and/or for a long time)

So please, let's just consider that there will be other editions in the far future and we might as well be talking about them now.

After all, 5e isn't even out and more than likely will not be out for several years yet. So if we're going to talk about 5e we might as well talk about 666e.